What’s Up With Net Zero?
Prashant Kushwaha
Making Sense in a Noisy World - Brand Marketing | Digital Marketing | Social Media Management | Startups | Generalist
When we use the term Net-Zero, what do we mean by it? Does it bring forth a self-sufficient definition and process leading to a measurable outcome?
Let’s take a look at the meaning and considerations behind the term ‘Net-Zero’ in the context of emissions and sustainability where the usage of this term is prominent enough to categorize it as a ‘buzzword’.
We will also take an elaborate look at where we stand globally to achieve our 2030 and 2050 goals in terms of emissions and the reasons why we might not.
What do we mean by net zero?
In 2022, the International Standard Organization (ISO) gave us the definition of net zero:
?“The condition in which human-caused residual greenhouse gas emissions are balanced by human-led removal over a specified period and within specified boundaries.”
Let’s break this down and understand some specific terms used in the above definition:
Residual, in the context of emission reduction efforts, refers to what remains after applying various mitigation measures such as wind energy, renewable energy production, storage, and utilization. This term encompasses all greenhouse gases, including methane, and implies the residual emissions left unconstrained by previous efforts.
The term 'balance' implies achieving net-zero emissions, where the goal is to remove as much greenhouse gas as emitted. This definition extends beyond a specific gas, like carbon dioxide, and includes all greenhouse gases, with a focus on achieving equilibrium through emission reduction and removal strategies.
When referencing a specific timeframe, 'over a specified period' underscores the importance of averaging greenhouse gas concentrations. This approach acknowledges the natural fluctuations in gas levels, emphasizing a comprehensive assessment that spans time to gain a more accurate representation of emissions trends.
The concept of 'specified boundary' allows for the application of the term 'net zero' to delineated regions or countries. This nuanced approach recognizes that emission reduction goals can be tailored to specific geographic areas, fostering a more targeted and impactful environmental strategy."
Now that we have finally understood the definition of net zero (I hope we did!), let’s ask the important question:
What makes net zero a paramount goal?
In understanding the concept of net zero, it is crucial to recognize that what we see and understand is not the whole picture. While net zero entails refraining from releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, it does not guarantee a complete absence of increased levels due to non-anthropogenic reasons.
Factors such as wildfires, volcanic eruptions, and methane leakage from the ground can contribute to rising greenhouse gas levels despite adherence to net zero practices.
Furthermore, achieving net zero does not signify an immediate temperature drop. Instead, it implies a stabilization of temperatures, even in the absence of additional greenhouse gas sources. Currently, our planet retains more energy than it emits, resulting in warming. This warming trend persists until the planet releases energy at the same rate it absorbs—an inherently gradual process.
The correlation between carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas levels vs the temperature increase reveals an intriguing pattern. If emissions cease and no new greenhouse gases are introduced, their levels will not merely remain stable but will gradually decrease. This occurs as natural processes, involving the ocean and land, slowly absorb these gases, balancing out the overall levels.
The dynamics of net zero are complex, as the slow uptake of energy by natural processes and the lag in temperature increase (yes, when it comes to such massive celestial bodies as our planet Earth, it will never be instantaneous) coincidentally offset each other. Scientists predict that while global temperatures will cease to increase upon reaching net zero, the effect may not be instantaneous.
As you might have noticed by now, the net zero definition itself doesn’t tell us anything about the expected temperature increase or decrease.
As such, net zero gains significance when considering the carbon levels at which it is achieved (NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory). Yes, you read that right! We cannot achieve net zero that will actually solve the climate crisis at any random levels of peak emissions (Achieving net zero at different carbon levels, say, 1,000 parts per million versus 10,000 parts per million, will yield distinct outcomes).
The key lies in integrating net zero with total emissions targets, as it provides a comprehensive understanding of the broader environmental impact. Net zero, therefore, goes beyond a standalone concept, requiring a holistic consideration of emissions targets to unveil its true implications. As such, understanding the integral value of annual emissions within a defined timeframe becomes imperative when striving for net-zero emissions. This integral signifies the duration until annual emissions cease to grow, marking the attainment of net-zero status.?
The discussion around net zero is fueled by its quantifiable nature, making it a tangible and intermediate goal. In the realm of policy-making, having a measurable goal proves instrumental in holding stakeholders accountable.
Taking stock of the current global climate scenario, the Paris Agreement outlines the objective to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
"The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change under UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016."
Presently, the annual average global temperature stands at 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above pre-industrial levels, with variations across land and sea (World Meteorological Organization). Europe, experiencing a faster warming trend, has already surpassed the global average, reaching 2.3 degrees Celsius.
"The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has officially confirmed that 2023 is the warmest year on record, by a huge margin."
Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 0.9% or 321 Mt in 2022, reaching a new high of over 36.8 Gt (IEA). Notably, carbon dioxide emissions constitute three-quarters, or about 75%, of total greenhouse gas emissions, with the remainder primarily comprising methane and nitrous oxide (World Resources Institute).
In the pursuit of the 1.5-degree Celsius goal, estimates suggest a remaining global carbon dioxide emissions quota of about 400 billion tons (Nature). These figures underscore the critical importance of strategic and decisive actions to align with global climate targets.
Exceeding the threshold of a trillion tons corresponds to an approximate 0.45 degrees Celsius increase in the global surface temperature. The data on global emissions from Our World In Data paints a concerning picture, indicating a persistent upward trend. To curtail global temperatures within the 1.5-degree Celsius limit, emissions must peak before 2030 and achieve net-zero status by 2050.
Projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, suggest a continued temperature rise until 2040, surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold in all realistic scenarios.
However, there is a nuanced perspective to consider. The historical surge in CO2 emissions has been led primarily by China, followed by the USA and India. Notably, the USA has made strides in reducing emissions, with levels peaking in 2007 and now reaching as low as those recorded in 1988. While the USA is on a declining trajectory, it still lags behind Europe.
In contrast, Europe has witnessed a substantial decline in emissions after peaking around the 1970s, regressing to levels reminiscent of 1965. Remarkably, this reduction in emissions aligns with sustained economic well-being, as evidenced by the data as shown below:
Achieving decarbonization in larger economies while maintaining prosperity is indeed feasible. The UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2022 and GermanWatch's Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) provide insights into the global landscape. The CCPI considers existing policies, greenhouse gas emissions, and renewable energy utilization, ranking Denmark, Sweden, and Chile as the top performers in 2023.
Despite ongoing efforts, GermanWatch notes that existing policies fall short of meeting the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, emphasizing the imperative to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere. The International Energy Agency's Energy Technology Perspective 2020 asserts that achieving net-zero status by 2050 is an exceptionally challenging task.
Carbon… Credit?
Both carbon credits and carbon offsets serve as accounting mechanisms, aiming to balance pollution on a global scale. The underlying concept is that since carbon dioxide (CO2) is uniform worldwide, the location of emissions reduction is inconsequential.
Similarities:
Definitions:
Carbon Offset Primer:
Carbon Credit Primer:
Carbon Markets Distinction:
Active Carbon Dioxide Removal Methods
According to the IPCC, Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is indispensable to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. CDR features in all modeled realistic scenarios, including the European Green Deal, aimed at restricting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or lower by 2100.
Carbon Dioxide Removal involves achieving net negative emissions by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. It is distinct from carbon capture and storage (CCS), which involves filtering out CO2 emissions from power plants, binding them with solids, and burying them. While CCS at power plants can contribute to net-zero goals, its efficiency varies, leading to some positive emissions.
A more sustainable approach involves Carbon Capture and Storage with Biomass (BECCS - Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage). This method utilizes forests and trees that absorb CO2 through photosynthesis. The biomass is then converted into fuels or directly burned to generate energy. This process, known as BECCS, exemplifies an innovative approach to carbon removal.
Various methods exist for carbon removal, including Direct Air Capture, Seawater Extraction, Rock Weathering, and BioChar.?
Approximately 2 billion tons of CO2 are naturally removed annually, primarily by vegetation. While nature plays a significant role in this process, human activities, particularly reforestation, can influence it to some extent.
As of 2023, the state of Carbon Dioxide Removal indicates that technological advancements can contribute to additional removal, amounting to about 2.3 million tons per year, constituting 0.1 percent of the total removal. Predominantly, this removal is achieved through BECCS or biochar methods.
To meet climate goals, the State of CO2 Removal Report emphasizes the need for increased removal efforts. By 2030, an additional 1 billion tons per year must be removed; by 2050, this figure should rise to about 5 billion tons annually. Achieving these targets necessitates reaching 1 billion tons per year removal within the next six years.
Relation Between EVs, Charging Infrastructure, and CDR
Electric vehicles (EVs) and the associated charging infrastructure contribute indirectly to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) by addressing the root cause of emissions. However, they are not direct methods of carbon removal like other technologies that we have discussed earlier in this article.?
Let’s take a look at how EVs and charging infrastructure are related to CDR:
Zero Tailpipe Emissions: EVs stand out for their zero tailpipe emissions, significantly diminishing the direct release of carbon dioxide and harmful pollutants into the atmosphere. This directly influences air quality and helps alleviate the adverse impacts of urban pollution on human health.
Reduced Carbon Intensity: Despite drawing power from electricity grids, the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, contributes to a decline in the carbon intensity of electricity generation. Consequently, the overall carbon footprint of electric vehicles is on a downward trajectory.
Energy Efficiency: Electric vehicles inherently exhibit higher energy efficiency compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. They convert a greater percentage of energy from the grid into usable power for propulsion, resulting in less energy wastage during the process. This efficiency leads to reduced overall energy consumption and lower carbon emissions.
Promotion of Renewable Energy Integration: The surge in electric vehicle adoption has accelerated the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. Many EV owners opt to charge their vehicles at home using solar panels, further diminishing their dependence on fossil fuels and fostering sustainable energy practices.
While EVs do not actively remove CO2 that has already been released into the atmosphere, the collective shift toward sustainable transportation, including EVs and renewable energy, contributes to a more sustainable and lower-emission future, which is essential for addressing the broader challenges of climate change and achieving long-term carbon balance.
#netzero #parisagreement #emobility #emissions #energy
Pioneering the Clean Energy Movement || Leading Willdan's Charge to Sustainable Energy || Learn more about sustainable energy solutions at Willdan.com || President, Willdan - Performance Engineering
9 个月Prashant Kushwaha, How can we ensure clarity and effectiveness in achieving this critical sustainability goal?
Strategy & Innovation Consultant | Co-Founder @Asobu Labs | Future Foresight | Business & Data Insights | 21st Century Skills | Trained LEGO? SERIOUS PLAY? & Design Thinking Facilitator | Trainer @ASAP Kerala
9 个月Great article !! Your insights on the concept of net-zero are truly thought-provoking