What's in Store Weatherwise for 2023 in Southern California? Here's Some Educated Guesses Based on the Past.

The first quarter of 2023 is in the books and it has been a remarkable one weatherwise to say the least in Southern California.

Back in October, when I saw the drought up close at Lake Mead and the Hoover Dam, I and no one else had any idea that conditions were about to rapidly change, with one of the wettest - and snowiest - winters on record ahead.

Nearly six months later, we can look back at both the blessings of our unexpected deliverance (whether long-term or short-term we cannot yet say) from the chronic drought and marvel at the predictions even the experts made that have been shattered.

With a warmer climate, particularly warmer cities, the already rare incidence of coastal and valley snowfall was deemed a virtual impossibility in the future.

But then came late February and early March 2023, when blizzards overwhelmed mountain towns and the heaviest snow in living memory deluged foothill communities. Even Disneyland saw some icy precipitation!

As for the rain, Downtown Los Angeles is now waiting to see how far up the top 10 list for wettest seasons on record this season will come in at. And the average annual London rainfall of 23 inches has long ago been surpassed.

So what's ahead now for the rest of the calendar year?

I'm not a meteorologist - though I do have a fairly good knowledge of weather. But I am an amateur historian, and I know that we can often - though not always - look to the past to predict the future as far as weather goes.

And here are some lessons from previous wet years.

Spring Can Be Gloomy

In recent years, we've started to accept as normal that the year's rainfall ends in March. April and May showers have become a rarity.

But that's not the pattern for Southern California's wettest years.

In 2004-2005, 1997-1998 and 1982-1983, the parade of Pacific storms kept coming into April and even May. Though with some more drying out time in between.

With that in mind, I'd guess that the total rainfall for the season will be well over 30 inches in Downtown L.A.

May Gray/June Gloom - the local term for the foggy weather common in coastal and valley areas in late spring and early summer - tends to be more pronounced after wet winters. Most of the wet years in the past half century have been followed by cooler than normal Mays and Junes. So expect a reprieve from the chronically hot conditions.

Summer Might Be Shorter - But Still Hot. And Possibly Stormy.

The El Nino year of 1998 has become the classic wet weather tale in modern Southern California. February 1998 was the wettest month on record essentially everywhere. And then spring was less historic but still wet. So what was summer like?

As it turns out, it did get hot. Very hot in fact in late August and early September.

A humid heat wave brought a few days over 110°F in most valley areas. Combined with higher humidity than usual, heat indexes - what it really feels like - approached 120°F.

In my hometown of Riverside, August 1998 was the only month on record so far to have an average daily high temperature above 100°F.

But the last three weeks of September were cooler than average.

So as a whole, summer in 1998 was short and severe. And had some memorable bouts of thunderstorms in desert, mountain and valley areas.

With summers getting warmer each decade, I'd anticipate some heat - even historic heat - in 2023. Which of course wouldn't be very surprising based on the easiest type of weather forecasting - persistence forecasting. But it might well hold off until July. And it might end a bit earlier too. And the monsoon might be active.

Fire Season is a Big Question Mark

A wet winter finally means there won't be a bad fire season.

That's the common belief on the street.

The reality is more complicated.

The truth is, any year has the potential to be a bad fire year in Southern California. The dry years are more likely to be bad in Northern California, since the forests are parched and more liable to burn. But in the Southland's chaparral landscape, the driest years sometimes go the opposite way. There might be less that can catch on fire, thus inhibiting fires from getting out of control.

Wetter years, on the other hand, can result in a massive crop of grass. When it finally dries out after the summer, it can present a severe fire hazard.

Looking back over the past half century, there were 10 years with above average rainfall in Southern California. Of these, 30% were bad fire years come autumn. Or another way to look at it - three of the 13 worst fire years in Southern California were wet years. Including the notorious 2003, 1993 and 1980 seasons.

On the other hand, the wettest years - 2005, 1998 and 1983 - didn't have bad fires.

So perhaps that offers some solace?

Next Winter Will Be Drier (Most Likely)

Predicting next winter's weather is probably a fool's errand. But if history is any guide, it won't be like this past winter.

That's because wet winters in Southern California tend to be one-offs.

Talk of a sudden shift in the climate in which Los Angeles is becoming like Seattle turn out to be short-lived. Sunny and dry Southern California resumes.

2006, 1999, 1984, 1981. All dry years. And all followed historically wet years.

Dry years also tend to be windier years - as in Santa Anas. So if you're in to gardening, don't count on the stiller weather this past winter repeating next year.

Southern California has one of the most seasonally variable climates in the United States. So expect the unexpected. But expect it all to pass in time.