What's In Store For 2024?

It's the first day in the office after a? proper two week break and I’ve been spending some time reflecting on the big themes from 2023. What started out as a LinkedIn post has turned into an article (??) because well, turns out there was a lot to look back on and damn that character limit. And as I pulled these seemingly disparate threads together it became clear that these big themes aren't going anywhere. If anything they set the scene for 2024.

?? Fossil fuel primacy is dead: We’ve arguably?reached two tipping points here. One is renewables uptake and cost parity. The other is the social one. My big take away from COP28 is the outing of the duplicity of big oil lobbyists in influencing the global sustainability agenda. Did all that actually happen?! Yes it did and the outrage hit the mainstream with wide acknowledgement of the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. More than that was the frankly exceptional bravery and creativity in taking on fossil fuels through climate comms. From Atmospheric Agency 's hilarious satire to Make My Money Matter 's fantastic campaign with 'Oblivia Coalmine' (among so many other great examples), oil really has lost its shine. For 2024 this social tipping point means even more scrutiny and pressure for businesses to strip out fossil fuel dependencies through the value chain, up capex on circular and regenerative innovation, and critically, communicate communicate communicate to keep stakeholders informed. Transparency is your friend and will see you through.

?? Polycrises has forced a systems view. If you didn't think of yourself as a systems thinker at the beginning of 2023, then I bet you were by the end of it even if just a little bit. The interconnectedness of carbon cycles, deforestation, war, fossil fuels, cost of living, biodiversity loss, soil, famine, crop failure, chemicals, food security, water, capitalism, and corporate responsibility came home to roost in 2023 and the need for big systems overhaul is landing including, and this feels tipping-pointy, the human connectedness to nature.? In this context, BAU and overt corporate self-interest looks like a thing of the past particularly as regulations like CSRD force action in 2024. This could be its own point entirely but I'll keep it here as it's all connected - the double materiality requirement in The Corporate Sustainability Directive legislates a systemic view of the role of business in driving or mitigating social and environmental impacts over the short and long term, linked to financials. Integrated financial and sustainability brand impact reporting is coming and it's as much a monumental reporting headache (I see you sustainability leads ????) as an amazing opportunity for leadership brands to authentically and transparently tell their story.

?? Shareholder Primacy to Stakeholder Governance. Still a big theme in 2023 and set to ramp up in 2024 without doubt. I can scarcely believe it was actually 2022 when Faith In Nature put nature on the Board, and Patagonia assigned the company to a trust in service to the planet. 苹果 's belly flop ad however was in 2023 and that was telling us something - that nature could feature in the boardroom was culturally compelling and something we ought to expect as perfectly reasonable. BCorp are raising the bar and tightening their standards on purpose and stakeholder Governance, and #DoughnutEconomics, which counts Governance as a key lever for ecologically-sound and socially-just business transformation, gained big traction in 2023. Even the Institute of Directors (IoD) are talking about Stakeholder Governance and that’s saying something! Just shelling out cash to shareholders as the world goes to hell in a hand cart looks kind of icky now, right (???? Thames Water)? Personally, with this trail blazed by leadership corporations, I'm excited about what we’ll see this year - which inspired brands will take a leap of faith and reshape Governance structures as part of their transformational shift in 2024?

?? From sustainability-think to regenerative urgency. I wish I had more references for you here but it's a wet finger in the air; It feels like things have got so bad out there - impending ecological collapse and all that - that there's a whole swathe of businesses who completely missed the 'be more sustainable' boat, and in an act of sink or swim, will instead cut straight to the chase and jump on the floating regenerative band wagon. Because they have to. And whilst there's deep tragedy embedded in this tale - the lives already lost to climate breakdown and social inequality - I really feel the energy of a tipping point on all things regenerative business when we join up all these big themes. After publishing this piece, I found my echo in John Elkington 's views on #COP28 published in the International Society For Sustainability Professionals on where things are headed;

“Now, if the writing on COP28’s walls and hoardings was any clue, the challenge of getting businesspeople to speak the language of sustainability is behind us. Instead, the challenge is to regenerate our economies, societies and, ultimately, biosphere.

?? The normalisation of business activism. The backtracking and back-peddling on NetZero and Biodiversity regs drove even the most tame if not to the streets, though literally thousands did (???? Business Declares ) then certainly to SIGN SOME THINGS?and type angry LinkedIn posts and and join up with other business and academic leaders to urge more from Government. Y'all got feisty in 2023! This isn’t going away and if anything is likely to ramp up in 2024 as election nears.

?? The moral imperative to act: Making sure sustainable /regenerative transformation can pay for itself is a given but the moral case for change felt like a big theme on LinkedIn at the back end of 2023. I wrote about it earlier in the year in the 'How To Change Everything Everywhere All At Once' series and then my ears were tuned into it and I seemed to be picking up morality references left right and centre. Was it just me or did there feel like a corporate mood shift in 2023 toward 'doing the right thing?'. As the planetary and humanitarian crisis deepens globally, which it will, so will the moral imperative - and the fact that it feels like it's mainstreaming as a reason to act after literal decades of "where's the business case?" feels like it's own mini tipping point. It gives permission for business leaders to lead with integrity at a time when we know so many have been wringing their hands with worry. Hallelujah.

?? Overconsumption, overproduction, and waste waste waste came under the spotlight time and time again across multiple sectors but felt like it reached a cultural tipping point in fashion and food, both of which share similar behaviour shift challenges. The release of two new books - 'Sustainable Marketing' by Alexis Eyre and Paul Randle (2023) and 'Can Marketing Save The Planet' ( Michelle Carvill and Gemma Butler ) are both essential reading and a sign of the times (copies on order folks!). As business models undergo necessary shifts to reduce material dependencies and drive customer shift to cleaner, greener and, well, less,?engagement, storytelling, narrative way-finding, sustainable UX and sustainable marketing practices will become even more important to drive the necessary behaviour change in 2024. Bring it.

??? Where words matter more than ever before. 2023 was the year the words ‘carbon neutral’ were neutralised as carbon offsets and?dodgy carbon credit schemes came under fire alongside ever tightening green claims legislation. Legislators, consumer watch dogs and everyday citizens were on fire last year holding brands to account. Meaning the guard rails for sustainability comms are tightening at a time when brands and corporates desperately need language and stories to communicate the changes they're making to drive the necessary shifts. I said this last year and I’ll say it again now - words like ‘green’ and ‘eco’ will be lost from the sustainable brands lexicon soon and this is no bad thing. Overall, finding the right language to tell compelling stories will be a defining feature of 2024. Mark my words :) .

2023 was the year we transgressed six of the nine planetary boundaries, hit more potentially irreversible tipping points and, as reported by Ed Hawkins today, 2023 was the hottest year on record for the planet. Another dark red stripe was added to the climate stripes graphic. Of course these are cold sustainability-speak measures of something far more heartbreaking. Which brings me to the final theme of 2023, which played out a lot on LinkedIn and one which is as relevant on the 31st December 2023 as it is on the 2nd of January 2024 as we consider how we will show up in 2024, and that is of doomism vs hope. Personally, as I've reflected and penned this post, I've emerged feeling hopeful. And ever more convinced that it's the crucial combination of truth-telling (squaring up to the 'doom') that in fact ignites hope. That teaches us who we will be. I confess to, at times, feeling paralysed in 2023. Of having to look away at times. But I've been leaning into it since. I want to leave you with some incredibly evocative words by Ece Temelkuran in her book "Together: 10 Choices For a Better Now" (thanks for the reco Jon Alexander ) in the Chapter on 'Choosing The Whole Reality';

When times are extraordinary or confusing - as they are today - it might sound naive to say that reality is the true home of the magical. In such times, when the word 'real' becomes terrifying, evoking only the perfect shitstorm outside our window, many of us make a secret deal with life. We constantly try to calculate the optimum distance we should stay from reality: close enough not to be completely out of touch but far enough away not to be hurt. However, reality has a devious habit of vindictiveness; sooner or later it will take revenge on those who think they have kept themselves safe and clean by smartly evading its dust and mud"