What's At Risk? Everything. Everywhere. All At Once.

What's New: U.S. national security leaders, including the directors of the FBI, NSA, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), have warned lawmakers about a significant shift in Chinese cyber activities. The focus is now on direct attacks against U.S. critical infrastructure through a group known as Volt Typhoon, posing threats to water, power, and rail services.

"This is truly an Everything Everywhere, All at Once scenario. And it's one where the Chinese government believes that it will likely crush American will for the U.S. to defend Taiwan in the event of a major conflict there." - CISA Director Jen Easterly

Why This Matters: This evolution in Chinese cyber operations from espionage and data theft to aggressive prepositioning within critical U.S. infrastructure signals a stark escalation in cyber warfare tactics. Such a shift not only underscores the sophisticated nature of state-sponsored cyber threats but also highlights a potential strategic aim to disrupt American societal functions and military operations. This pivot to more aggressive postures could signify a broader strategic intent to leverage cyber capabilities for geopolitical gains, particularly in scenarios involving regional conflicts where the U.S. is a stakeholder.

Key Points:

• The Volt Typhoon group has been planting malware in network routers and other devices that could disrupt essential services in the U.S.
• This move represents a departure from China's previously risk-averse cyber activities, primarily focused on espionage and theft, to actions that could cause real-world harm.
• The targeting of critical infrastructure is seen as preparation for potential military activity, with the aim to induce societal panic and potentially impact U.S. defense capabilities, particularly concerning Taiwan.
• "The PRC has a bigger hacking program than every other major nation combined," said FBI Director Christopher Wray. "In fact, if each one of the FBI's cyber agents and intelligence analysts focused exclusively on the China threat, China's hackers would still outnumber FBI cyber personnel by at least 50 to 1."

What I'm Thinking:

• Strategic Reassessment Required: The U.S. and its allies need to reassess their cybersecurity and defense strategies in light of China's apparent willingness to engage in more provocative cyber activities. The shift suggests a more complex and potentially confrontational cyber engagement strategy that could challenge existing defense and response paradigms.
• Infrastructure Resilience: The focus on critical infrastructure highlights the need for significant investment in cybersecurity resilience across essential services. The U.S. must prioritize the protection of its critical infrastructure through both technological defenses and strategic planning to mitigate the impact of potential cyberattacks.
• Indo-Pacific Strategy Implications: The targeting of infrastructure on Guam and the implications for U.S. military operations in the Indo-Pacific region underscore the geopolitical dimensions of cyber threats. The U.S. must integrate cyber defense with its broader Indo-Pacific strategy, considering how cyber operations could influence or preempt military engagements in the region. I specifically address this challenge in the book, Defending Taiwan, where I observe, "... The United States could face cyberattacks against naval ports to slow force deployments. Ransomware and other “signaling” attacks against critical industries and infrastructure would also be likely. As tensions rise, these operations could expand to anti-satellite and electronic warfare attacks intended to deteriorate American navigational, intelligence, reconnaissance, and targeting assets in the region. If things escalated further, we could expect large-scale cyberattacks intended to cripple the American economy, government, strategic nuclear missiles, and way of life."
• Intelligence and Offensive Countermeasures: The revelation of Volt Typhoon's malicious operations and the exposure of compromised routers underline the urgent need for an aggressive stance in intelligence gathering and cyber counteractions. It's imperative that the U.S. intelligence and cybersecurity apparatus not only stays ahead in surveillance and defensive mechanisms but also adopts a more assertive posture in disrupting and deterring the sophisticated cyber maneuvers of adversaries such as China. This approach necessitates a dynamic, forward-leaning strategy that involves preemptive cyber operations, enhanced offensive cyber capabilities, and a robust framework for cyber deterrence to actively confront and neutralize threats before they materialize.
• Strategic Collaboration and Expertise Leveraging: For industry leaders facing the escalating cyber threat landscape, the imperative is clear: proactively fortify defenses by seeking partnerships with experts at the nexus of global business and national security. This situation demands more than just internal cybersecurity measures; it calls for a strategic alignment with entities possessing deep insights into the geopolitical dynamics influencing cyber threats. Engaging with specialized consultants and leveraging intelligence from government agencies can provide a preemptive edge. Furthermore, fostering a corporate culture that prioritizes cybersecurity as a strategic business imperative, not just an IT concern, is crucial. By integrating cybersecurity strategies with business operations and decision-making, companies can ensure resilience against the kind of sophisticated cyber operations exemplified by Volt Typhoon. This approach not only mitigates risk but also positions firms to navigate the complexities of international cyber and geopolitical threats effectively, safeguarding their operations, reputation, and, ultimately, their bottom line.