What’s really going to happen with 5G?

I must start with an apology that this post is a bit more technical than my normal updates, but I wanted to write about next-generation mobile networks, and it’s difficult to do that without including any of the gory detail. I promise that I’ve kept it to a minimum.

Those who follow technology trends have been bombarded with news about 5G during the past couple of years. Interestingly, in reading about what will be big in 2017, the talk has mainly turned from 5G itself to the applications that it will enable. The latest tech predictions, like those from Gartner, are increasingly focused on the continued evolution of the Internet of Things, along with other advances such as augmented and virtual reality, self-driving vehicles and smart cities.

All of these developments will only be made possible by the speeds and reaction times of 5G however. And, as tends to be the case with mobile technology, there are many factors ranging from the scientifically problematic to the – almost – ridiculous that present a challenge to how, where and when it will actually be deployed.

For a start (and this is the technical bit), although 5G will look and act quite a bit like 4G in terms of how it sends and receives data, it will be using extremely high frequency radio waves (mmW) that don’t behave like those used by 2G, 3G and 4G. Although there will be plenty of this mmW frequency around, it is much more easily absorbed by things like concrete walls, cardboard and even raindrops and oxygen! This means that a very closely-packed structure will be needed to move the network traffic around. And of course the more equipment you need for anything, the more expensive it is going to be.

I won’t go into any more of the detail, but there are going to be a lot of network engineers with headaches out there.

Despite the challenges, I don’t think we really have a choice about whether to introduce 5G or not. Too many of the things we are building towards in our society rely on it and countries like the USA and South Korea are already planning their rollouts. Here is how I think it will play out:

• 5G will have more of a niche role in the early years, launching in dense metropolitan areas first, and on a city-by-city rather than a countrywide rollout basis.
• Where it is enabled, it will co-exist with 4G, which has a relatively long lifespan.
• The killer application will be as the first true broadband alternative, mainly in developing countries and areas where broadband capability is either non-existent or very weak.
• Standardisation is some way off and this – along with the cost implications – will force a wait for a lot of operators. We will see some launches in 2018-2019 when the standards set by the GSMA set in.
• Business models for 5G in applications like machine-to-machine connections and self-driving cars will need to be designed imaginatively. These will present a challenge to operators’ profitability because of the low amount of revenue available per connection.

Now, I’m an optimist and I like to look ahead. I am confident that 5G will be rolled out and used successfully. And I have a challenge for the real visionaries out there. If 5G can deliver speeds of 1 gigabyte per second, react faster than the human brain and handle massive amounts of data in each cell site, what will 6G be capable of?

What about the first “quantum” network that goes beyond speeds to allow immediate connections over infinite distances? (If you don’t think this is possible, have a look at what China is doing with its rockets…) Or how about the first calls back to Earth from Mars? There is only 0.13% oxygen in the atmosphere there, so it could mean one less headache for the engineers. Maybe the days of travelling to a meeting – the bane of many a worker’s life – will be over, as we send our holograms instead. Wishful thinking?

What do you think could be the next step beyond 5G?

Photo credit: Paul B