Whats the probability?
I am amazed to see what goes on in the world around Corona. And I know we all have different world view and even how to look at (or not with facts). The worst case scenario of data that we have is from Wuhan. As outside of China the death rate (of reported cases) was 0,4%. If we look at these figures, from mild, to medium to severe illness % and continue to look at age group that gets hit hardest and then at so called pre- conditioned cases its in my view amazing what goes on. Even if this became a full blown "all over the planet" virus. I fully understand the the threat of overload and this should teach us something forward. I fully understand that no one wants to lose a family member at any cost, anytime. But at what cost are we doing this? What are the impacts now all over the world and the death that for sure will come from this as a reaction. 150 000 people die on this planet everyday. Corona may hit 1 500 a day, maybe 15 000 a day and over the year will it create a spike or not? What I don't get is why we don't react like this towards all other illness. So far this year 2,5 million people have died from viruses, then all other diseases we can add on. I know and understand that we don't want another virus on the scale adding on to this graph as all lives are precious but at what cost? including other lives. I am not sure what the ratio of chance for me to get the virus and what that is. officially its low, unofficially slightly higher I guess. if I get it I am in the age group where 1,3% dies. Thats good odds no? And that's a worst case scenario from Wuhan. If we use other data from China 4% goes to 0,4% ten times better and math would be with? 0,13%. If I then look at pre-conditioned rate of those dying. Note that China has a very high ratio of men smoking, bad hygencial routines and so on. Lets say I am health and not pre - condition out of the once dying with out any visible secondary condition is 0,9%. If we put this into a probability scale its 1 in a million (and I understand I might be that one in a million). For elders sadly less good figures. If 80 years plus 1 of 6 dies. And if look at precondition again the graph goes up but not same odds as me but still very good. I read up on some of this and the chance for me dying of heart attack is 127 times higher than the chance of dying from Corona. Let alone everything else that can take me out any day, but we don't talk about because we have gotten used to it. Again I understand horrible stories and what goes on or went on in China, Italy, Iran and so on, but is it proportional? Could we not fix all of this with the cost the world have seen so far? Thats what we need to ask our governments. And I know a lot of you see the figures differently carry on. WHO is like UN, is like politicians its about responsibility. But when this is over, and it will end, who is responsible for all the tragedy the pandemic fear and irrational reactions? Figures don't lie...