What’s Next for Trade, Finance, and Technology in 2025?

The economic and business outlook for 2025 presents a challenging yet opportunity-filled environment for global growth. Based on reports from the World Trade Organization (WTO), ADEN International Business School, and Forbes Mexico, this article analyzes key projections in international trade, global finance, and technological trends, offering valuable guidance for entrepreneurs and investors.

International Trade: Gradual Recovery and Geopolitical Challenges

According to the WTO, global merchandise trade will grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 3% in 2025, following a decline in 2023 caused by high inflation and elevated interest rates. Lower interest rates could stimulate consumption and encourage investment. At the same time, global GDP growth at market exchange rates is expected to remain at 2.7% in both years.

For now, global merchandise trade rebounded in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, which is expected to continue into 2025.

International Finance: Technological Transformation and Sustainability

With the increasing level of global interconnection, international finance is undergoing significant transformations, driven by technological advances and changes in the geopolitical landscape.

By 2025, the implementation of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and efficient risk management will be decisive factors in an increasingly dynamic and sophisticated financial environment.

Global Perspectives in International Finance

It is projected that by 2025, AI will be fully integrated into financial systems worldwide. For example, in trend prediction and risk management, AI enables the creation of sophisticated models capable of forecasting variations in global markets, considering both economic and geopolitical factors, thus allowing anticipation of crises and fluctuations. Here are some other scenarios where AI will prove its usefulness:

• High-Frequency Trading: AI can execute millions of transactions in seconds, leveraging price differences across various markets to maximize profits.
• Currency Risk Management: Analyzes historical data to predict currency fluctuations, facilitating effective hedging strategies for multinational companies.
• Fraud Detection: Identifies suspicious patterns in global transactions, preventing fraud and ensuring regulatory compliance.

Business Outlook: Innovation and Demographics

According to Forbes Mexico, IT spending could reach $3.6 trillion in 2025, with about 30% of large U.S. companies allocating more than $10 million annually to AI solutions. This development highlights the urgency for Mexican businesses, regardless of size, to adopt emerging technologies to optimize operations.

Moreover, the upcoming year will see other factors and trends driving changes and challenges, especially regarding sustainability and various industries. Here are some of them:

1. Aging Population: The increase in longevity presents structural challenges. With 12% of the population over 65 years old and only 10% of GDP allocated to healthcare, businesses have opportunities to innovate in wellness products and services.
2. Energy Transition and Sustainability: The demand for renewable energy and essential materials such as copper and steel is growing, while fossil fuels will continue to meet more than 80% of energy needs. Companies must balance sustainable practices with the realities of the energy market.
3. Green Infrastructure and Logistics: A global investment of $28 trillion in infrastructure, equivalent to 25% of global GDP, is expected. Companies must adapt to stricter environmental regulations and manage geopolitical risks in supply chains.
4. Automotive Transformation: Electric vehicle sales are projected to increase by 25%. However, limitations in batteries and charging systems slow the transition, creating opportunities for hybrid models and infrastructure improvements.

The year 2025 promises to be one of transformation and opportunities for trade, finance, and business. With the push for international growth, technological innovation, and a focus on sustainability, businesses face a horizon full of possibilities.

Although geopolitical and regulatory challenges will persist, those who embrace these trends with vision and determination will overcome adversities and lead the shift toward a more prosperous and sustainable future.

Now is the time to look forward with optimism and act with purpose to build tomorrow's success!

Sources:?

• World Trade Organization. (2024). Global trade to grow 2.7% in 2024 and 3% in 2025: WTO. El Economista. https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/empresas/comercio-mundial-crecera-2-7-2024-y-3-2025-omc-20241010-729475.html#:~:text=El%20volumen%20del%20comercio%20mundial,en%202.7%25%20en%20ambos%20a%C3%B1os?
• ADEN International Business School. (2024). International finance in 2025: Trends, strategies, and technologies. Business Magazine. https://www.aden.org/business-magazine/finanzas-internacionales-en-2025/?
• Forbes Mexico. (2024). Business perspectives for 2025. Forbes Mexico. https://forbes.com.mx/perspectivas-en-los-negocios-para-2025/?