What's Next for Ticketing and Live Entertainment?

To borrow some wit and wisdom from the late, great Harry Caray: As sure as God made green apples, live entertainment will someday return.

While it certainly won't take a 108 years for live entertainment to come back, like it did for Carray's beloved Cubbies to win a World Series, the six weeks that have gone by since sports, concerts, and theatres went on hold has seemed like an eternity. Unfortunately the pause may continue for a lot longer than any of us would have anticipated.

With so much unknown about the immediate future of live entertainment, some of the questions then become when will it return? When will fans be able to attend games and concerts? What will have changed about live entertainment when it returns? And, last but not least, how will the ticketing landscape be altered? These are important ideas for both event-goers and those inside the entertainment industry to consider because a crisis the magnitude of COVID-19 will surely change the complexion of numerous elements of our society if not permanently, then for a long time to come.

More than a month into a nationwide lock-down aimed at slowing COVID-19's spread, local governments across the country are considering the safest ways to begin reopening our economy. Naturally any decisions to do so are contingent upon evidence that infection rates have sufficiently declined and science having advanced far enough with diagnostics and treatments that we can begin managing the disease. Based on how it's used by politicians, the term reopen the economy also means reengage with society. This has a very "Main Street" connotation to it because it refers to the time when people will be able to begin interacting in public again around the cultural activities that they're accustomed to. In that sense, the economy will begin to reopen when people can once again become customers. Although certain states have begun to reopen, the process will be gradual and fluid, with the least risky components of society opening first, and others following as the situation develops.

There's been some speculation as to what the world will look like once the reopening commences. It's been suggested that restaurants will have limited seating capacities to allow for social distancing. Servers who interact with numerous patrons and coworkers over the course of a shift may wear Personal Protective Equipment such as masks and gloves, and restaurant hosts would be able to check guests' temperatures. With controlling the spread of infection being of utmost importance, it stands to reason that live entertainment, which is predicated on large social gatherings in confined spaces, will be among the last cultural elements to become available to the public. This is deflating news to those who make a living in the live event industry, as well as stir-crazy event enthusiasts. On the bright side, those activities that become accessible in the later phases of the reopening will do so at more advanced stages of the response. We'll be further along in terms of tests, treatments, potential vaccinations, and just our overall understanding of COVID-19. So, once fans are allowed back to enjoy live entertainment, we'll be at the safest point that we've been since the pandemic started.

When will live entertainment return?

The road we take to get to that point is treacherous as it is long, with murky twists and turns that can send us in any one of many different directions. For example, Major League Baseball has recently floated a few proposals for games without fans, the latest of which would have three divisions, drawn up geographically. Each division would be made up of teams from both the American League and the National League, and teams would play a shortened season beginning in late June, against teams only from their division until the playoffs. An earlier idea that's still a possibility would have all teams play games behind closed doors in the Phoenix, AZ area, at minor league complexes and the Arizona Diamondbacks' Chase Field. The thought being that keeping all games in one location would insulate the league in order to reduce the chance of contracting and spreading the illness. Either idea would also be a step in the right direction in terms of reopening the economy because broadcast outlets would have relevant new content to show and sponsors would have platforms for reaching their customers. Of course it would also provide a morale boost for sports fans with beloved games to watch, which is something that has been sorely missed these last few weeks. Last but not least it would offer a shred of encouragement that we're at least beginning to trend in the right direction.

While baseball's contingency plans have merit given the circumstances, lack of clear next steps after that make them somewhat unsustainable. Since local governments are in charge of making most reopening decisions, sports leagues will likely run into a situation where games- even those without fans in attendance -could take place in certain cities but not in others. So, any broad-based plans to relocate baseball back to its home cities will depend upon all cities basically being on the same page in terms of social distancing, travel restrictions, and other mandates. Without a clear point of reference or any practical past experience, we can look to efforts being made in leagues around the world for examples on how we can orchestrate a return to sports here in the US. Germany's Bundesliga is set to return in early May, in order to finish the nine matches left on its schedule by late June, as teams have begun practicing in a very controlled manner in anticipation of an eminent return to games without fans. As of right now, Germany has a nationwide ban on large gatherings through the end of August, but it also has a low COVID mortality rate, and the best testing regimen in Europe. So in some sense, Germany's infrastructure is better equipped to allow the reintroduction of sports back into its society. Taiwan's 5-team Super Basketball League has resumed its season with the playoffs. All teams play in a single gym, without fans in attendance, and that country's baseball league also just began it's 2020 season on April 12th under similar conditions. In fact Taiwan's Chinese Professional Baseball League has garnered attention from around the world not only as a model for restarting a sports league but for the fact that they're putting robots and cardboard cutouts in the stands in lieu of actual fans!

So, there is a blueprint for at least getting sports restarted. One tricky proposition here in the US will be keeping players and team personnel healthy (and by extension anyone they come into contact with), while coordinating cross country travel, and having appropriate resources in place to ensure proper sanitation and medical attention; as well as a comprehensive plan for if and when anyone with a team tests positive for COVID-19. There will be a need to basically insulate sports leagues as isolated societies that can sustain themselves and offer care to their "citizens" at a time when certain essentials such as COVID testing and newly-developed therapeutics are still in short supply throughout the general public. While one-location, closed-doors sports leagues might make sense in these desperate times, we also must consider whether or not it's practical to make firm plans to invest in a strategy that could be irrelevant in a few weeks. Keep in mind that orchestrating a 5-team basketball league on an island nation of roughly 14,000 square miles like Taiwan, or even a 20-team soccer league over Germany's 138,000 square miles is much different than coordinating a 30 team league over the United States' 4 Million square miles. Additionally, college sports and professional sports have different standards to adhere to because the communal nature of college life is unavoidable and quarantining student athletes in order for them to be able to play games will be a challenge for budget minded universities, many of which have already begun cutting certain "non-revenue" sports amidst a health crisis that has naturally turned into a financial crisis. College sports likely won't open back up until campuses open back up and there's no sure bet that that will happen by autumn. In fact, starting NCAA football in spring, 2021 has already emerged as a possibility.

When will fans be able to return to games and concerts?

While there's some hope that sports can return in some form rather soon despite legitimate complexities, those hoping to catch a live concert might have to wait it out considerably longer. Sports reaches a majority of its audience through broadcasts and garners most of its revenue that way as well. So the need to have fans return to fill stadiums and arenas is not immediately urgent. Not so much for recording artists, who now devise 75% of their income from touring in the age of the declining record sale. Recorded music is abundantly available through streaming services and past concerts can be re-lived on YouTube. Artists have also found ways to stay on the collective radar during the pandemic, offering free performances, jam sessions, and even music lessons over platforms such as Instagram, all of which has been wonderful in terms of forging bonds with an audience and brightening people's days. But the live concert experience is one that cannot be replaced or replicated and, just as important to the artist and associated entities and individuals, it's become the lone revenue driver. It's been recently estimated that fans will not be allowed fully back to live events until fall of 2021, which would be about 18 months from now. Perhaps sports can find ways to stem the tide for that long if that ends up being the case, but the blow to the music industry and its fans figures to be much more severe. Additionally, theatre will likely not return to perform until the audience is allowed back into the house, and much of that will be up to local ordinances and other mandates in response to COVID-19. Broadway will remain dark through June, but it seems like only the most venerable shows like Hamilton or Book of Mormon will be immune to the fallout. Given the marginal nature of the theatre, shows without longstanding pedigree are in jeopardy of folding if they haven't already. Consequently, highly anticipated limited engagements, featuring busy, bankable stars, like Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf, barely had the opportunity to get off the ground. The bleak reality surrounding Broadway and other theatre districts around the world, is that even if the audience is allowed back, there may not be much for it to come back to for a while.

To put things in perspective, after only two months of intense social distancing measures, the fact that we've already begun the process of reopening is encouraging. While the effects on culture and the economy are profound, we should be able to recover fairly well, given what we're told about our economy's overall strength. One analogy to consider is that you don't treat a serious wound by operating on it immediately. You need to stabilize it first by applying pressure to stem the bleed. This is how we're approaching COVID-19 right now and it seems to be working. We're stemming the bleed by enacting social distancing and other "lockdown" methods to help flatten the curve of infection. This will give our medical community the time it needs to develop the testing and treatments essential to help manage the disease so society can more quickly return to normal. In a recent Seton Hall University survey more than 70% of respondents said that they would not attend a sporting event until there was vaccine for COVID-19. That may seem a bit far fetched since vaccine development and testing is a painstaking process that could take years to complete. There's also the possibility that we can achieve a level of Herd Immunity sooner rather than later, which would mean that enough of the general population is immune to the disease via past infection or exposure, that the spread would stop. But, the quicker we get to the point where we can identify the virus or its antibodies and treat it, the quicker fans will get back to live events.

What will live entertainment look like when it returns?

The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to change the course of human history, and it will undoubtedly leave a lasting legacy. As we speak, architects are considering ways to make venues as pandemic proof as possible for both the short term and the long term, which would include reduced capacities and new seating configurations that adhere to social distancing guidelines. The horrific events of 9/11 occurred in the blink of an eye but their impact on all facets of society is still being felt, and live entertainment is no exception. It goes without saying that a disease which has stopped the world in its tracks for several months will leave a permanent impression as well. Event security has been the main focus for live entertainment post 9/11, with venues using airport style body scanners and wands at entrances, and subjecting guests to bag checks and even body checks. Subsequently, bags of certain styles and sizes are no longer allowed into most venues.

Ironically, these security steps cause the type of crowd congestion that we'll certainly seek to avoid as fans start to come back once society reopens. So, venues may need to expand the amount of entrances and exits available to guests in order to allow for speedier access while continuing to offer adequate security. Besides heightened security at the gate, venues after 9/11 invested heavily in surveillance to try and monitor suspicious activities and individuals. This strategy included the presence of armed National Guard and local SWAT personnel at the watch and ready, throughout the venues. In response to COVID-19, don't be surprised to see attendees screened for illness by technology that can take temperature or identify other possible health irregularities, as well as spot checks on guests who may appear to be under the weather.

While it may prove impractical on several levels to alter seating plans of existing buildings, there are still a variety of less drastic ways to safeguard guests and staff from contracting and spreading illnesses. Event staff will likely wear gloves, face masks and other sorts of PPE, and such items may also be offered to guests. Don't be surprised if venues have medical clinics and medical personnel on site to attend quickly to guests who feel ill. Touch screens that get utilized by countless guests at concession stands and information kiosks in venues will likely need to be rethought amidst health concerns. In all likelihood, apps will be quickly developed to allow guests to order items like food and souvenirs from their phones. This will not only be convenient, but it will speed lines and ease congestion in the concourses and at concession stands, which can help control the spread of disease. Restrooms will also be practically "hands-free" and will disinfect at intervals, whether automatically, or by maintenance personnel. It's also possible that ATMs will disappear (or at least be very limited) and venues may move to all cashless transactions, which would take some getting used to and be resented by certain guests, but will be effective in streamlining certain processes that carry risk. Certain communal areas like playgrounds and other interactive features may be shuttered temporarily or removed. The COVID-19 pandemic has raised the public's awareness about hygiene and personal health matters in general, and that will undoubtedly be reflected at live entertainment events. In spite of efforts that will surely be taken in order to protect guests from illness and even treat them to some degree if necessary, part of the goal will be to have these measures not detract from the actual event watching experience.

How will the ticketing landscape be altered?

The current state of affairs has not been easy on any individual or industry. While we're all in this together, the crisis effects each of us in unique ways, providing us each with specific difficulties to overcome. Like many retail outlets, ticket businesses are unable to sell their product at this moment, but for the ticketing industry, the blow is exponentially greater than it is for most others. Since there is practically zero demand for tickets right now, and no clear timetable as to when fans will once again be able to attend live events, ticket sales have all but halted. This comes in contrast to other consumer facing industries that can still find some ways to stimulate business. Restaurants that can't seat guests can still offer takeout and delivery in many places. Certain other "non essential" brick and mortar establishments can sell online or offer curbside/contactless pickup. So, in many instances there are limited ways to keep the ship afloat. In that sense, ticket businesses are like bars, gyms, and salons, in that they can't do business at all right now. This is ironic given the nature of ticketing as an online industry. Compounding the uncertainty and lack of sales, ticket companies must also refund money for cancelled events, or offer credits for postponed events. In that regard ticket sellers are like hotels, airlines, and any other businesses that sell reservations, in that they must give money back for reservations that can't be met. That's a particularly glaring challenge to overcome because money that was taken in many months ago has gone towards employee salaries and other business obligations; and it's especially difficult to reconcile without any current income.

If there is a bright side in the grand scheme of things, the present pause gives the ticket industry the opportunity to redevelop its core business practices in ways that are more appealing to consumers, and perhaps usher in a "new age" of ticketing. For example, since tickets will need to be generally less expensive than they have been in order to entice nervous fans to come back to events, ticket sellers should be completely transparent about pricing. This would include not only lower prices (at least for the time being), but an end to price manipulation that often finds ticket prices to increase arbitrarily and without notice, from what a customer expected to pay. Available inventory should subsequently be accurately conveyed to the customer at all points throughout the pre-sale and on-sale period in order to help manage expectations and provide clarity to the consumer. The ticket industry must keep in mind that its customers will surely come back to them a wounded and wary lot, that will deserve a comforting customer service experience free of confusion and unwelcome surprises. Subscription ticket holders will still receive deference, and should be rewarded generously for their loyalty during such a difficult time. By the same token certain other customers will still receive access to priority on sales and other incentives. But, each and every customer should know exactly where they stand in terms of price and availability at all points while tickets are on sale.

As far as the industry is concerned, we can expect to see at least some level of consolidation. Looking back at 9/11, the airline industry was hit harder than any other due to lingering fears about flying. Airlines offered incredible prices and other deals in order to lure customers. But, to make ends meet given the softened demand, some of the most solvent air carriers merged, while less significant ones folded altogether. Throughout the decade immediately following 9/11, the airline industry absorbed around $50 Billion in losses. Airlines only started to become profitable again following significant consolidation, as the less-competitive landscape allowed them to implement pricing mechanisms such as baggage fees. The ticket industry can expect to undergo a similar restructuring. Whether or not fans leap right back into live entertainment is unknown, but it will probably take some time for them to return at the record levels we've seen since 2010. Additionally, the financial stress on consumers from all points on the economic spectrum will likely lead to less of a willingness to spend on discretionary items like tickets and certain other forms of entertainment.

Both primary ticketing and ticket resale command mostly marginal profits, as resellers usually don't turn more than a 15% aggregate profit. With fewer fans coming out to events at the onset these margins should shrink and certain ticket companies, particularly smaller resellers, won't survive; just as the case will be for many types of businesses. However, the larger resellers will feel the squeeze as well. Part of the new economics surrounding the industry is Live Nation's temporary issuance of refunds for postponed events, given to customers who opt for a refund within a specified timeframe. Traditionally, LN owned Ticketmaster has only provided refunds for the rare event cancellation. Those holding tickets for a postponed event would be allowed to use their original tickets for the rescheduled date. If they could not attend on the new date, they would have to resell their tickets, which provided the resale market with significant amounts of inventory. In response to customer backlash, including lawsuits, for originally not providing refunds for events postponed by COVID-19, LN has decided to allow refunds to customers who request them within 30 days after the rescheduled date is announced.

Whether or not this policy remains in place once society returns to "normal", will depend in large part on its financial impact on LN. In the meantime, ticket resale won't miss the inventory for the time being because it isn't selling tickets right now anyway. If LN, not to mention competing primary sellers like AXS, see the refund option as a favorable business model and a needed customer service inroad, it will serve a blow to ticket resale, which can also have significant impacts on the customer ticket shopping experience, both positive and negative, especially when ticket prices begin to increase.

Going forward, teams, venues, and artists will need to agree on a standard set of ticketing policies so that fans know what to expect from their tickets by way of refund, transfer, and even delivery. This will mitigate pressure points in the ticketing process that leave fans feeling frustrated. Part of the reason why LN doesn't traditionally offer refunds except when an event is cancelled, is because venues and teams, for example, each have their own refund policies that third party ticket sellers must abide by. In fact, rights holders such as the venues even have the authority to dictate whether or not a ticket is available for mobile delivery and transfer, which is a policy that many ticket buyers are unaware of until the moment that they try and transfer their tickets to a friend. In recent years, ticket buyers, especially subscription buyers, have begun to enjoy added incentives such as priority seating and upgrades, merchandise, and invitations to insider events that often include some sort of exclusive behind-the-scenes access. The goal for rights holders will be to broker that connection once again with the audience, so not only will they need to be generous with the incentives, but creative as well.

Acknowledging that the new (or current) normal involves time at home, and away from public places, venues are looking for ways to monetize the audience experience while offering something of value to fans who may have no choice but to watch from their living rooms. Some venues have begun to work with Virtual Reality firms on technology that would provide an exact view from a seat in the arena from home, on a pay-per-view basis. So, imagine being front row for Billy Joel or center-ice for a hockey game, all from the comfort of your own couch! This strategy also takes into account that in the age of HD flat screens, many fans prefer the at home viewing experience to being at the event live. Such is the case, get ready for the opportunity to buy a ticket for a seat in your own home from here on out.

So, where do we start and where does this all end?

The answers to questions as to when specific elements of society will return depends on how far along we are in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. So, the question should not be When will I be able to go to a ballgame again? But instead, have infection rates dropped? Do we have enough testing? Are there treatments available yet? The answers we receive regarding the illness will guide the answers we seek in regards to anything that has been impacted by the virus. Regardless of what the exact next steps are to reopening live entertainment, we can expect significant reorganization of anything from the event experience to the ticketing process, that will align more closely with the needs and attitudes of the consumer both in the near-term and the long term.

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I welcome your feedback on my articles, whatever your opinion may be. I'm fascinated by the ticket market as a facet of our overall economic landscape and often discuss my views in writing. Sometimes, I write not about tickets but other topics in sports, music, and entertainment. For tickets to any event, anywhere; including the best in sports, concerts, theatre, and more, please visit www.seatslink.com. I'm also happy to help you navigate these uncertain times, even if you just have a question about refunds and next steps regarding tickets you purchased. You can find out more information from the Seatslink Facebook page, and can get updates and information sent to your email by registering for the Seatslink mailing list! Feel free to DM me on LinkedIn, email [email protected], or call 718-676-0504 for assistance with tickets and events.