What's Next For Movie Theaters?

I’ve spent a lot of time this week thinking about the plight of the movie theaters. Due to the COVID disruption, almost every studio film has been pushed to 2022, at the earliest, and a coalition of top directors has petitioned Congress to step in to save cinema.

I’m extremely torn. On one hand, going to the movies was one of most cherished parts of my childhood and adolescence. We went every weekend when I was a teenager, and I don’t want future generations to be robbed of that experience. I'm hugely nostalgic about going to the cinema with friends, and I can distinctly remember seeing certain films on the big screen for the first time.

On the other hand, I’m of the strong belief that COVID has only accelerated and exacerbated something that was already inevitable. When I was a child, the alternative to going to the "cinema" (as we call it in the UK) was either standard definition television or 4:3 pan and scan VHS. In both instances, standard definition (and in the case of VHS, a blurry standard definition). The theatrical experience was exponentially superior. Now one can build out a home theater setup with high definition or 4K large screen TV for well under a thousand dollars. Moreover, the traditional moviegoing audience (young people) have other, arguably more engaging forms of entertainment in the form of video games and social media. I was on a panel fairly recently when an older entertainment attorney (who will remain nameless) said that “young people are the people who go to the movies.” I couldn’t believe what I was hearing! Young people like Netflix, TikTok and Fortnite, not going to a movie theater where they can’t interact with anyone or check their phones.  Naturally, this is an attorney who has a vested interest (because they do a lot of film financing work), but to me that's a worryingly out-of-touch perspective from an industry professional.

I also can’t help but think that the exhibitors have made a rod for their own backs. $15-20 for a movie ticket (which is what it is in major metropolitan areas) is totally unconscionable when one can rent a new release for $20 on one’s own couch, subscribe to an SVOD service for $7.99-$9.99 with thousands of hours of content or - for the price of three movies - buy a triple A video game with 30+ hours of entertainment. The value proposition of going to the movies is just terrible, especially when one factors in the $5 bottles of water, or hiring a babysitter.

The concern that I’m seeing a lot of people cite is that people are going to “lose the moviegoing habit.” But the truth is that people have been gradually losing the moviegoing habit for years - and if you are under 18, it’s highly possible that you never acquired the habit. 

The movie studios know this. That’s why we have HBO Max and Disney+. Everyone knows that the theatrical experience is going to - at best - evolve into something different that probably involves a “premium experience” (whatever that means). But they’re not ready to fully make the jump yet, which is why we have this weird, disingenuous relationship that feels like someone doing the minimum to keep their significant other on the hook while they look around for someone better. There's a lot of lip service about the "importance of theatrical," but most executives now see the writing on the wall, and have for quite some time.

So the question is: should governments bail out the movie theaters? I think they have to if they want them to survive. God knows we’ve bailed out industries with far less value to society in the recent past. Given the choice, I’d like to see any assistance go first to the independently owned, local theaters first instead of the chains, but we all know that won’t happen. Whatever we decide to do, it’s going to be a weird next 12 months with virtually no theatrical releases, and it will be fascinating to see what happens once we have a working vaccine and return to “normal” (again, whatever that means).