What’s next for Israel and Iran?

Today, the United Nations Security Council is convening to discuss Israel’s recent airstrikes on Iran. “This was a serious escalation ,” Chatham House’s Sanam Vakil told FP’s Rishi Iyengar. Still, Vakil said, “Israel has been relatively calibrated” in avoiding an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or its energy sector.

?For this and other reasons, experts hope de-escalation in the short term might be possible. Iran’s response has been muted so far, and Israel has a narrow window in which to act before the U.S. election on Nov. 5.

Meanwhile, the feared Israel-Hezbollah war is happening, “but it is remarkably one-sided so far,” wrote Georgetown University’s Daniel Byman and Skyeler Jackson. Following Israel’s detonation of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies in September, it commenced a large-scale military campaign in Lebanon. Hezbollah’s response “appears anemic,” write Byman and Jackson, who speculate the most likely explanation is the militant group’s lack of capacity.

In Gaza, the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar earlier this month might not have been the turning point many imagine, as FP columnist Steven A. Cook argued at the time. On a recent FP Live , Gen. David Petraeus spoke with FP editor-in-chief Ravi Agrawal about how Israel’s thinking might change following Sinwar’s death. “I don’t think that a strategy of ‘clear and leave’ is going to ensure the destruction of Hamas,” Petraeus said, “nor will it provide a better future for the Palestinian people.”—Amelia Lester, deputy editor

New and Noteworthy

• Georgia’s political crisis: The pro-Kremlin ruling party Georgia Dream is celebrating its victory after the weekend’s parliamentary elections—seen by all sides as a referendum on the country’s future —but as reports of irregularities and intimidation at the polls abound, the president and opposition groups are refusing to recognize the results.?
• Sudan at the U.N.: United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres will deliver recommendations to the Security Council this week on protecting civilians in war-torn Sudan, and Roméo Dallaire and Shelly Whitman of the Dallaire Institute call for an intervention to help 2.8 million people trapped in and around El Fasher, including the deployment of a “nimble multinational or African Union-led protection force.”
• Controversial Nobel: This year’s prize to economists Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson has elicited unusually strong criticism within academia. FP columnist Howard French examines allegations that their work does not consider the ways in which enslaved Africans fostered European wealth, concluding the trio’s award represents “a case of the West succumbing to a kind of self-flattery.”

FP Live

Oct. 28-Nov. 1, join FP’s special election series, America Votes: What It Means for the World. FP’s Ravi Agrawal will be joined for a set of conversations with regional policy experts, broadcasting each day this week. It’s the United States’ election, but it matters for the whole world. Explore what’s at stake—this series is free and open to all to watch on-demand.?

America Votes: What It Means for the Middle East

Oct. 28 | 11 a.m. EDT

The next president will be tasked with containing an escalating regional crisis in the Middle East. After the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States sought to decrease its involvement in the region, but recent months have shown that desire to be futile. How might presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris differ in their approach to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as their broader strategy toward managing Iran, among other priorities? Chatham House’s Sanam Vakil and FP columnist Steven A. Cook will join. Register now .

America Votes: What It Means for Europe

Oct. 29 | 11 a.m. EDT

The transatlantic relationship might be the most obvious area of difference between Trump and Harris. Trump has threatened to pull out of NATO; Harris doubled down on the alliance in Munich. Harris has called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “murderous dictator”; Trump boasts of their good relationship. How is Europe preparing for this future? Nathalie Tocci, the director of Rome’s Istituto Affari Internazionali, and Mark Leonard, the director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, will join. Register now .

America Votes: What It Means for Africa

Oct. 30 | 11 a.m. EDT

Africa has been neglected by recent administrations; the last presidential visit was in 2015, though Joe Biden is due to visit Angola in December. How will the next president handle this large and diverse continent? Will trade and infrastructure be prioritized, or will African nations merely be a pawn in Chinese-American competition? Martin Kimani, a former Kenyan ambassador to the U.N., and Zainab Usman, the director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Africa Program, will join. Register now .

America Votes: What It Means for Latin America

Oct. 31 | 11 a.m. EDT

Latin America has largely come up as a scapegoat for immigration and drug cartels. But it’s a region that contains the United States’ largest trading partner, Mexico, and is also the site for intense geopolitical competition. What do we know about how Trump and Harris will manage relations with the region? Moisés Naím, a former Venezuelan minister of trade and industry and now chief international columnist for El País, and Catherine Osborn, the writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly Latin America Brief, will join. Register now .

America Votes: What It Means for Asia

Nov 1 | 11 a.m. EDT

As China’s influence in Asia and around the world grows, how will the next U.S. president manage the world’s most important relationship? And beyond China, how do Trump and Harris compare on their approach toward other Asian countries? Ryan Hass, a former director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the White House National Security Council, and Lynn Kuok, the Lee Kuan Yew chair in Southeast Asia studies at the Brookings Institution, will join. Register now .

Postcards from the Wedge

Ahead of the U.S. election on Nov. 5, FP is exploring the connection between foreign policy and the battleground states that will decide the election. How do foreign-policy issues affect how these states vote? Explore these compelling stories from the series , and keep an eye on FP’s Election 2024 hub page for all the developments integral to understanding the deeper geopolitical context of the upcoming election.

Exercise Your Mind

Representatives from more than 30 countries gathered in Russia last week for a summit of the BRICS bloc. In which city did they meet?

A. Yekaterinburg

B. Kazan

C. Nizhny Novgorod

D. Samara

You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.

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• Foreign Policy 100: Last week, we aired our 100th episode of the FP Live podcast . Listen to the episode, “An Alliance of Autocracies,” ?wherever you enjoy podcasts. To celebrate, we’re offering new subscribers our best deal yet. Save $100 and gain access to a full year of first-rate journalism: Check out on an annual plan with promo code FP100 to claim this offer.?
• Share Your Feedback: We're considering launching a membership for Ones and Tooze . We're in the early stages of figuring out what we'll offer—bonus episodes, exclusive content, behind-the-scenes moments, direct interactions with us. We created this short survey to gather your ideas and input , and we really appreciate your help!??

Answer: B. Turkey has formally asked to join BRICS, which would make it the grouping’s first NATO member , Jorge Heine and Ariel González Levaggi write. Test your knowledge of world news last week with more quiz questions.