Whats Next?

We are in the midst of a global emergency and most Governments and people are quite rightly focusing on the here and now, ie getting the infection and, sadly, death rates under control. However, with signs, maybe only small ones, of success appearing in this fight, the question of what happens next needs to be addressed. These are my thoughts on what might happen and where we, as a global community, might go after this emergency passes.

With regard to the virus itself, Covid-19, the only time for celebration will be once a vaccine is developed and this is likely a year away from now and even then, it is unlikely to be 100% effective. It is also unlikely that this will be the last pandemic that we experience and so it is sensible to consider the future in a different light to what has gone before.

For businesses, it is a real danger that there will be a number that will not survive this situation. It will not be just large or just small businesses that will be effected, businesses across the spectrum and across many sectors are in genuine danger of not coming out of this. I am not being alarmist here, I am being realistic. It is also likely that those that do survive, which will hopefully be the majority although there is no guarantee, will try and operate on reduced cost basis, ie less staff than before (in order to try and make back quicker the income that has been lost). This means jobs could be in danger.

It isn't all doom and gloom though. There will undoubtedly be opportunities too. Where larger more centrally based companies do not survive or reduce their scope of operation, there will be opportunities for smaller, more local operators to take over. It is also true that, now that many of us have sampled the possibility and technology of home working, there will be a number who do not wish to return to the office based workplace. This can result in many new small businesses, possibly people operating as contractors to their previous employers, and new openings for people to work as service providers.

There are examples all around us in this situation of businesses rethinking how they operate and even what they do. Some businesses have collaborated, out of necessity, with others who they would never have thought of working with. Simple examples like brewers and distillers making hand sanitizer, fashion labels making surgical gowns and masks, Formula 1 teams making CPAP equipment. These collaborations have shown that thinking beyond what we used to do is not only possible but can be beneficial. Do we really expect such revelations to be ignored once "normality" returns? I think not and I think that there will be a number of businesses who branch out, meaning employment and business opportunities for those who can see the possibilities and are brave enough to grasp them.

How we live has also been shown to be adaptable. Reducing our shopping runs to once a week is a sensible adaptation that should be continued by the majority. It reduces the amount of driving to pick up single or small volumes of goods and thus reduces pollution, parking pressure and, because we are not driving as much, our costs and need to replace cars so often. It could also open more opportunities for employment in the delivery sector. More deliveries equals less pollution as one delivery vehicle route takes the place of many car journeys.

Online shopping has been growing hugely anyway, but this emergency has boosted even that growth and buying online and having it delivered during this situation means that it is very unlikely that we will return to the same level of high street shopping that we undertook previously. Again, growth opportunities for the delivery sector and environmental benefits.

Outwith business, the speed at which pollution levels have dropped during the lockdowns, especially in our cities, shows us that we can make a real difference to the undoubted damage that our activities have been doing to the global environment quite quickly, but only if there is a concerted and sustained will to do so.

The speed with which wildlife has reappeared in some urban environments is also a sign that it is mankind's activity that is the main issue in restricting their movements and range. Again, with some carefully thought out measures, wildlife and mankind can occupy the same space to the benefit of both.

Education has been shown to be possible as a remote delivery function. Some schools have been lucky enough to have already started with the use of internet platforms and individual tablets for each child and these have shown that the system can work effectively, certainly at high school level. Colleges and Universities will have to embrace this technology as finances squeeze tighter and the Open University model may become the norm. Again there are opportunities here.

The whole remote working/learning/shopping idea can be more efficient and more environmentally friendly than traditional methods, but humans thrive on social interaction and the benefits of face to face meetings, singly or in groups, cannot be understated. The emotional, mental and physical well being of our populations is at risk if we do not socialise. However, the rise of dating apps, the innovative use of social media platforms during this crisis to share music, the ease of downloading and watching movies etc all show us that our social lives were already moving into the virtual sphere and I do not believe that this will slow down. Yes there will undoubtedly be a need and a strong desire for physical meeting, but there are opportunities for the right remote functions too.

I do not mean to sound like I am advocating that we all live in isolation and only ever contact each other remotely, I do not believe that is either a desired or healthy outcome, but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that we need to heed the lessons of this enforced situation and be a lot more conscious of what we do and how we do it.

I am optimistic about the future, I believe that there are great opportunities ahead, but if we ignore that lessons we have been shown, then it will be a lot harder to make the most of what we have and will increase the likelihood that such enforced lockdowns become a part of our normal routine.

Do you agree/disagree with these thoughts? Do you have ideas of your own? Please share as the sharing of knowledge and ideas is the best way of making change.

Stay well, stay safe.