What's next?

I think we have all had enough of COVID-19. Needless to say that most of us were extremely excited to see what could be considered as the worst year in recent history in the rear view mirror as we rung in the new year. Yet, no one knows exactly when this will end, with several vaccines currently being deployed, some feel like the end is near, while specialists say that it might take well over half a year for us to safely tuck away our N95 masks and rejoice in the happiness of our daily lives again. Whenever the pandemic ends, whether it be by mid-late 2021 or 2025 and beyond, the only thing we know for sure is that in one way or another it has left a deep and ugly scar in our history.

Deloitte, and many large consulting groups have divided the pandemic into a series of three stages, the "react" stage, in which companies and economies started to react to the crisis, the "recovery" stage in which companies and economies will start to recover, and finally the "thrive" stage in which companies and economies, or at least those who have correctly surfed the crisis, will like a phoenix bird, rise from the ashes as new and stronger versions of themselves. Whilst many have declared that the recovery stage is currently well-underway or expected to be in some regions by Q8 2020, (Deloitte Canada, 2020) in my opinion, the recovery stage will commence once heard immunity has been reached and we can reestablish some sort of normality. Dr Nicholas Christakis, physician and social scientist at Yale University, divides the effects of the pandemic unto 3 stages, the immediate period until end of 2021, the intermediate stage which will go unto the end of 2023, and the post-pandemic stage that will commence approximately in 2024. The immediate stage is where we are in today, in which we are experiencing the biological and epidemiological shock of the virus, and will continue to do so until either artificially or naturally herd immunity is reached. Dr. Christakis, says that we will probably not reach herd immunity until late 2021, and during the intermediate stage will have to recover from the economic, psychological, social effects and impacts of the pandemic, and once we fully recovered then we will move unto the post-pandemic stage in which people will finally feel free from the pandemic and will begin to live again (Christakis, 2021)

As we finally get a glimpse at the light at the end of the tunnel, it is time to think about what changes in marketing the pandemic has brought forth. Here are a few predictions that will directly impact how marketers communicate, engage, and interact with our consumers.

Roaring 24's

The pandemic has had devastating impacts on almost every single economy and market. Needless to say that the travel, retail, and entertainment industries have been some of the hardest hit. Yet, how will it look like once we have finally put the pandemic in our rear view mirror, and what should marketers look for as a general ambiance guide of the post pandemic era?

In 1974, the sociologist Jib Fowles coined the term chronocentrism, “the belief that one’s own times are paramount, that other periods pale in comparison.” (Mounk,2020) Looking at back at history, throughout the greatest pandemics there has been great lessons that have been learned, but there "seems to be something about pandemics that causes them to slip from the collective memory." (Bush, 2021) People will be quick to forget about COVID, and as we welcome the post pandemic era of the 2024s a new sense of freedom and with that a renewed love for living will take over our society.

In the last months of World War I, a novel virus sped around the world, infecting hundreds of millions of people. The 1918 influenza ultimately killed more than 50 million. At the time, it must have seemed as though life could never go back to normal. Why would anyone ever again risk contracting a disease just to share a drink with friends or listen to some music? But the devastation of World War I and the 1918 flu pandemic was quickly followed by a manic flight into sociability. The Roaring Twenties saw a flowering of parties and concerts. ( Mounk,2020)

This phenomena of roaring 20's will repeat itself in the post-pandemic era and we will welcome a dawn of re-encountering ourselves with the joy of life, rekindling our romance with concerts, theater, cinema, parties and pretty much anything that enables us to feel alive. With economic recovery at full speed, and disposable income at hand once again, Dr. Christakis predicts this era will be accompanied by heighten drug, promiscuity, and alcohol use much like the 20's and 60's.

Roaring 24's new Consumer

Considering our time line will be divided by the immediate, intermediate, and post-pandemic stage, consumer habits will shift throughout the stages. During the intermediate stage, or during the recovery stage, people will still be cautions of spending, and consumer habits might slowly shift. As we put the risk of venturing outdoors behind us, people will certainly partially re-engage in their daily habits, venturing back into supermarkets, gyms, cinemas and retail. Yet, this will be gradual, and brands should focus on how to re-connect with consumers. It cannot be forgotten that many people will still be going through hardship, economically, socially, and even with lingering post covid19 health conditions. Millions will have lost loved ones, and many more will have lost their business, their job, their home, and their way of life. With this, an abrupt shift of marketing strategies shouldn't be expected and rather a slow and gradual shift from stage to stage should be implemented. Brands should start heavily investing in re-connecting with this new consumer, and start making the leeway towards the roaring 24's.

With the arrival of the roaring 24's consumer habits should greatly change. The long awaited "rebirth" period will bring new and unprecedented trends. Perhaps the most important being a new consumer. This consumer having lived the pandemic, will be more digitally enabled, more technology savvy, less patient, and will have a new found love for life.

Clicks and Bricks, the new, new normal

For many companies the arrival of the pandemic meant digital acceleration like never seen before. Businesses that had been slow to embrace the digital curve had one choice, digitize or die. "While better serving customers has been a top driver of digital transformation in the past, it often meant that companies had to be careful about how quickly they introduced new technology solutions and how advanced these solutions were. A significant fear is that not all customers would be able to adapt or be ready for change. At the beginning of the year, 67% of U.S. CEOs expressed concerns about migrating all of their business to the cloud. The pandemic, by forcing everybody to embrace digital technologies, has largely erased previous hesitation. " ( KPMG, 2021)

As we enter in the intermediate stage, and the immediate threat of the virus is in the past, people will flock back to brick and mortar retail. However, digital strategies will need to be robust enough to enable a seeming-less transition between clicks and bricks. We have often heard of omnichannel strategies, but like many hype words, we have seen it thrown around in strategy meetings with little actual real world applications. The truth of the matter is that omnichannel strategies call for a consistent shopping experience across platforms. Very easy to say, but very hard to accomplish. Yet, in a post COVID19 world, a seeming-less transition between digital and bricks will be essential. Companies should be sure to continue to have customer driven strategies or otherwise known as customer centric strategies, and to have experience either digital or off digital as a key component of the business. This will mean that marketing teams will have to create concise and clear cross-boundary ( digital:off) campaigns. The biggest key will be to use one to leverage the other, whether that's using digital platforms to drive the sale, or in-store experiences to close the deal. Absolute synergy between the digital and in store marketing strategies will be the key to a successful survival in the post pandemic era.

There is a new concept being called "total experience" that calls for a unified experience across platforms. Total Experience refers to a unification of UX Design, marketing content and strategy, and customer and employee experience in order to provide a seamless, unified experience of engagement with your brand. ( Shailen, 2020 ) From the customer perspective, seamless multichannel communication has long been an important driver of satisfaction and loyalty. Customers want efficient, seamless interactions on the channel of their choice—and they’ll handsomely reward companies that deliver top-notch experiences (and punish the ones that don’t). According to data from PwC, speed, convenience, and helpful, friendly service matter most, and customers are willing to pay more—up to a 16% premium—to businesses that can deliver. Meanwhile, one in three customers will seek out the competition after just one bad experience. ( Angelucci, 2021)

During the roaring 24's as we see a surge in interest for the joy of life, consumers will flock back to retail even more, looking for experiences that heighten our joy of life. Things such as personalization of goods, and anything that leverages on shopping experience will be essential. In developed economies, there could be a rekindled love for "the shopping experience" at bricks and mortar. While in markets such as LATAM, a fully digital era will be further than ever before as consumers will flock back to brick. Experiences such as one hour or same day click and collect while enabling in store exchanges, and using those visits as hooks for further purchases might be the key balance. Marketers will need to closely follow behavior, and not only be completely in sync with consumer drivers and their emotional state, but have perfect in-sync digital and off digital campaigns, that go a step further and interact between each other. For all this to work, data will be an essential player. On this note the capacity to centralize digital and non digital data, store, analyze, correctly read, and be able to make well founded decisions based off the results of this data will be the founding block of the post pandemic successful corporation.

Dark and Digital Everything

The infamous "Dark stores" and "Dark Kitchens" started to pick up hype way before the pandemic. It makes logistical sense, during times of crisis, such as the Chilean social uprising in 2019, to have stores closed off to regular traffic. " Going dark, even temporarily, can help offset the cost of under-performing stores and the expense of freight and logistics, especially in more densely populated areas. It also takes online fulfillment out of store operations, allowing retailers to concentrate on customer service and minimizing a great deal of confusion around inventory. Team members are no longer ransacking store shelves, packing goods and then replenishing backroom stock." (Chou, 2021) COVID exponentially increased the popularity of Dark Stores, both as a lock-down response as well as a response to an increase of digital demand. It is logical to assume that this trend makes absolute sense, to the conundrum of how to keep sales up while keeping employees and customers safe.

For the food and beverage industry, as we dipped in the the peak of the pandemic, and henceforth forced the temporary closure of thousands of restaurants, bars, and food serving venues, we found ourselves in a new reality. As the weeks progressed, and the economic losses of closures increased, it forced many restaurant and bar owners to look for alternative streams of revenue. The most obvious was to continue the sale of food and beverages through the use of third party platforms such as Doordash, Rappi, and Uber Eats. However, another option was the use of dark-kitchens. Similar to dark stores, dark kitchens are food prepping kitchens that have no in customer service, and rather are 100% online. This allows for a drastic reduction of costs, as dark kitchens can be run practically anywhere. While some consider this a risk--dark kitchens do not necessarily meet sanitary conditions, as they can be run in private homes and basically anywhere that food can be prepped, it is not only an easier route for raising capital and testing new food with a new pool of consumers, but it has also opened the possibility for basically anyone with cooking skills to venture into the food industry. Dark Kitchens have also enabled restaurateurs with standardized operations and quality to engage in a more aggressive expansion strategy. For example, a well established restaurant serving X location, can quickly open a dark kitchen in XY location and consequentially double the radius of take out/delivery coverage.

Yet in a post Covid world, will this trend outlive its hype? The answer like with digital trends is never clean cut. For Dark Kitchens, as we move towards the intermediate stage and the perception of risk of eating out diminishes, people will flock back to eating out. As we enter into the roaring 24's, much like any "belle epoque" of abundance, and social economic upwards mobility, there will be a fascination with culinary experiences. With that, dark kitchens during these coming years should focus in building a clear fan base and should set as an objective to merge towards a physical space. As we enter the post-pandemic era, people will be less likely to opt for eating in, and will probably prefer to look for eating out experiences. There is also an interesting market that will be on the rise for those who are looking for healthy meals as an alternative to daily cooking. However, in general, dark kitchens should ensure they have a clear target demographic and have nestled into a niche market with the use of clear marketing strategies.

For Dark Stores, similar to retail trends already discussed, retail needs to use a mix between digital solutions and physical brick experiences. There will be a clear block of people that will intrinsically flock back to supermarkets and stores. Personally, I will be one of those, I miss the possibility of picking my own produce, wondering the isles, comparing products, and the best part--free samples. However, it is clear that many people that have realized how time consuming and irksome supermarkets trips can be, and have also realized the ease of ordering through online solutions, will never head back to actual stores. Additionally, as we head back to our busy lives, with gridlocked traffic, and back to back professional and social engagements, buying through third party solutions such as Rappi and/or Cornershop might continue to be a solution for our busy lives.

Henceforth, the era of "dark everything" has crash landed, and we might see more and more retailers and entrepreneurs venturing out unto this format as a quick solution for many problems. However, more than a norm, dark stores and kitchens in conjunction with physical stores, in a seeming-less conjoint strategy can and will be key to market domination. The use of dark stores can be key to offer quick delivery of goods and services ordered online while dark kitchens could be a key element for expansion, and to try out new cuisines to new demographics.

Another thing that COVID has extrapolated is the digitization of the retail and food and beverage industry. Menus from QR codes, contact-less ordering, among other digital solutions have been implemented with extreme success. In retail, self check out self help kiosks have been the ultimate solution to mitigating risks of spreading Covid. As we leave the pandemic behind, we can be sure that it accelerated exponentially the adoption of digital solutions. We have heard about the "store of the future" throughout the last 10 or 15 years. Many of these solutions carried technology with elevated costs, and hard to deploy solutions. For example the magic mirror, a mirror that was said to be the next big thing for retail. Magic Mirror displays focus on the ability to showcase products on a big display and provide an augmented reality experience for the customer. Installing tablets is the least expensive way to provide an augmented-reality experience. For Magic Mirrors, the hardware and [software] installation costs need to be justified by higher consumer purchases. ( CSA, 2015) Displayed in the NRF circa 2015, magic mirrors and RFID technology has been slow to change the face of retail all together. However, with this new race for contact-less era, we should see the adoption of new digital technology. For example using the same RFID technology, we should see more and more retail supermarket stores adopt scan-less self check out. Similar technology to that of Amazon Go, the first contact less supermarket, self check out kiosks are designed to automatically tally and charge products and process payments.

This new era of digitization still continues to pose a challenge for marketers. As we moved from the hustle and bustle of our daily lives to complete confinement, and moved from shuffling back and forth to and from work to a complete home office scheme, it consequentially became harder to reach and connect with consumers. During the immediate and intermediate stage, the fully digital consumer that primary shops online is the norm. Brands that are looking on how to connect with their customers should look for the new moments of truth. More importantly it should be established where and how decision making is being done in this pandemic, and how 3rd party last milers can become key players in marketing campaigns. It is clear that there is current economic hardship, thus connecting with the consumer at a deeper level is essential. The knee jerk reaction of many brands was to limit or eliminate marketing campaigns, however, much to the contrary as discussed in my previous article brands should be investing in marketing more than ever.

The dreaded Last Mile & Cutting the middle man

As mentioned earlier aside dark stores and dark kitchens perhaps one of the biggest surges during COVID19 has been last mile and last mile 3rd party suppliers. Whilst large companies such as Uber, Postmates, Rappi, etc have been perhaps the only solution, in a post Corona virus world what role will these last mile retailers play? The last mile has been consistently a headache for many leading brands. While some like Walmart have tackled their supply chain end to end, other brands are struggling between developing their own last mile solution and relying on 3rd party solutions. Many large players, especially in Latin America have their supplier to retail logistics all panned out, but have continuously failed to tweak their last mile solutions to a level that is acceptable. Falabella, one of the leading retailers in Latin America, is said to have accumulated from March 2020 to November 2020, more than 66,000 serious Chilean consumer complaints regarding issues with last mile delivery. ( Chocale, 2020) Reason for which many large retailers, especially in LATAM have been desperately trying to solve these issues. They key is to further strengthen digitization in their supply chain, better track inventory, strengthen connectivity between areas ( warehouse, physical stores, delivery trucks) and most importantly be agile on how they resolve customer complaints. Definitely easier said than done, and each of these has a previous building block which needs to be tackled before moving to the next. For example, if the retailer does not have a strong digitized warehouse tracking system, they consequentially cannot build on fast tracking delivery of goods. However, retailers need to understand that they need to completely re-invent themselves, and be focused on becoming data driven, fully digital, and have a robust end to end logistical solution all without loosing their essence and purpose.

A current headache for retailers is keeping track of physical merchandise at stores, as customers often misplace it, steal it, or it inventory simply does not add up. This is where black stores become interesting, as retailers can have stores that are exclusively for delivery of goods and in-conjunction with 3rd party solutions such as Rappi can offer a much quicker turn around period and can be implemented as a temporary solution meanwhile they fortify their own end to end logistical chain. However, these 3rd party retailers have been heavily criticized for their aggressive charge structure, according to a news outlet in Mexico, between governmental taxes and handling fees more than 50% of the profit is lost. Which means that retailers should consider the elevated costs vs the quick benefit of using 3rd party suppliers.

COVID-19 was a definite game changer, it accelerated digital adoption, baby boomers and older generations previously hesitant to adopt solutions like 3rd party last mile providers such as Rappi, had to quickly learn how to become savvy users. Supermarkets and other retailers have been developing their own applications as well as e-commerce sites, and during the pandemic it exponentially accelerated their use. We have seen a surge in adoption both at the user end and at the corporate level of new technology. However, much like with everything else, the future of these is not secured. As we move towards the intermediate stage these 3rd party platforms should see a stabilization of new users and a heightened churn rate. As we move towards the roaring 24, these 3rd party last milers should look for ways to retain their customer database, looking for new and innovative ways to tap into impulse buying.

A few years before the pandemic, brands started testing the waters for direct to consumer sale. This new dynamic transforms a traditional B2B business (Producer:retailer:final consumer) to a direct to consumer scheme. We have seen a surge of official stores in 3rd party platforms such as Mercadolibre, Amazon and Rappi. An official store is basically a virtual store from a brand within a 3rd party e-commerce site. Not only that but many large brands are building their own e-commerce site cutting completely out the middle man or in other word retailers. Many large beverage companies have opted for this scheme, and are currently offering direct to consumer access. For example in Latin America, Coca-Cola has a fully working e-commerce site, in Mexico, the largest beer producer, Grupo Modelo has not only 1 but almost 4 e-commerce and official stores sites working simultaneously. This from the strategy angle makes absolute sense, if your brand is strong enough and has a fan base wide enough to cut out the need of the retailer, by default you are increasing the profit by almost 2 fold. However, this has its own complexities, official stores through 3rd party suppliers such as Mercadolibre, offer clear advantages, such as the ability to completely hand over last mile operations. However, this benefit comes at a high cost, which means that the savings from cutting out the middle man might not be as attractive as previously thought. Yet, through robust marketing strategies in conjunction with attractive pricing, and if you are able to pan out logistics, offering bulk sizes ( i.e. a pack of 4) of your product might continue to bring in attractive savings even through third party ecommerce sites. In the end marketers in a joint effort with the finance, and operations teams will need to carefully evaluate this new scheme and determine if they have the capacity to offer direct to consumer. Building independent e-commerce sites should be the goal, but before venturing out marketing teams should build a strong strategy and experience end to end. Marketing teams should also make sure that both their digital and mobile selling platforms offer the best experience possible--there is nothing worse than a glichy app or website. As we move from the intermediate stage to the roaring 24s, and economic recovery settles in, more and more consumers might be open to purchasing non-essentials, and it will become a game of who can best captivate the consumer in this new and exciting era.

On the other hand this is definitely not good news for both the finance and marketing teams of retailers, as prices from direct to consumer platforms tend to be lower, and the majority delivery door to door, more and more effort to drive the customer back to the physical shelves will be necessary. It is perhaps to early to say, but these direct to consumer platforms might cause a dip in average ticket expenditure for retailers. Again this is why a seeming-less digital and off digital campaign is essential not only for brands, but for retailers as well. Retailers need to continue to be customer centric, and as we move from stage to stage continiously pan out and redraw the customer journey map, finding new moments of truth through these stages.

Home Office & Travel like its hot

It will take years for many people to recover economically from the damage of COVID-19, and it will not be until the roaring 24's that many will recover. Many business owners have seen their profit deflate to unprecedented levels. Others have seen their corporate roles vanish in a blink of an eye, as businesses struggle to maintain afloat.

Those who have managed to stay afloat will emerge to a reality of businesses reducing commercial square meters to a bare minimum. It has long been thought that there is no need for corporations to house immense HQ. Rather keep those teams that need to be based in an office and let those who are not essential work from home in a "co-working" style environment with no set desks and designated spaces. This will mean that hundreds of workers will now be in a mixed state of home-office and office time. This will allow for many, especially generation Z and millennials, to take on working from home to a whole new level. Companies will have to make tough decisions and decide if they allow workers to work from remote locations other than their homes. As companies find the right working balance, it will mean that will be a surge of workers heading to local coffee shops, the beach, the mountains, or even just a week away in another city. This will pose an interesting scenario for not only the travel industry but also for local coffee shops/restaurants that are able to dominate this new worker bee. We have already seen many countries offering "remote working visa" or the ability to remain for a few months while you do remote work. There's a new rise of a modality called Co-Living, in which a mix between reasonably priced living spaces and co-working spaces as well as socializing spaces such as rooftop terraces is offered. This trend known as "digital nomads" or "millennial nomads" had been on the rise since 2015. However, it was mostly reserved for young entrepreneurs as well as fully digital workers such as graphic designers. Now with the surge of more and more companies indefinitely allowing remote working, we can expect to see a huge surge of these type of living arrangements.

From a marketing perspective this will pose several opportunities as well as challenges. First and foremost trends with Millenials and Generation Z have been all over the place. This has caused some brands to struggle to connect with younger customers while others such as, Gucci through the shift into new markets have successfully managed to connect with this new consumer. However according to Deloitte, " Both generations said they’ll make a special effort to more actively patronize and support businesses—especially smaller, local sellers—after the pandemic. But they won’t hesitate to penalize companies whose stated and practiced values conflict with their own more" ( Parmalee, 2020). As we step into the intermediate stage, brands might have further trouble connecting with consumers. TikTok might be one of the only left outlets to directly incite the younger generation to spend, yet, millenials and gen Z might be extremely precarious of spending money on high ticket items, and will probably incline more on traveling and making full use of this new home office modality. In conclusion, there will be a heightened interest for remote working, with that we can expect a hefty recovery of the travel industry, as well as further strengthening of niche markets such as co-living. There will probably be a preference for spending money on traveling and experiences rather than high end luxury items. Considering this, brands need to construct a marketing strategy nestled on communicating the brands purpose, as well as how to properly connect with consumers at a deeper level. Needless to say that purpose will be the key navigating map for brands, and the ultimate key to building a new lasting relationship in the post pandemic era.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we should see a diverse set of trends, spanning from three very clear cut eras. During the immediate stage, or during the next few months, spanning into perhaps early 2022, we should expect economic hardship to deepen. As we move from infection wave to wave and new lock-down restrictions are imposed, despite vaccine rollout well underway, more and more businesses continue to hurt. With this, marketers should remain precarious, and should be all ears to the current state of emotions of customers. Rolling out campaigns that are not aligned with the general sentiment could be disastrous. As previously mentioned purpose should be used as a navigation beacon of what to say and do and what not to say and do during this and all stages of the post-pandemic era. During the intermediate stage, brands and companies should still be cautious but should begin to set the stage for the imminent roaring 24s. The company of the future is that which uses centralized data from both clicks and bricks to make smart decisions and furthermore makes marketing campaigns that are built around a robust omnichannel strategy. COVID imposed digital acceleration has brought forth a new era, yet, companies should focus on building a seeming-less transition between digital and off digital. Moreover, strategies at all levels, and especially within marketing, should be more than ever customer-centric, and should focus on building experiences that leverage between digital and off digital. Whilst some trends such as black stores and black kitchens offer excellent alternatives, rather than standalone solutions they should be used as routes to further strengthen strategies, including but not limited to, expansion strategies. The roaring 24's should bring an era of unprecedented love for living and luxury, and in difference of the 1920's, 2024 presides over a time of recent technological revolution and connectivity. During this time brands should already have developed robust strategies to further connect and keep up with the new consumer. As we progress back into normality brands will have to compete for the very limited attention span of consumers all being bombarded through many channels. Thus brands who have failed to connect and develop ties with a fan-base, will struggle to keep up.

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