What’s on the line at COP29? ‘We need real outcomes’

COP29, the United Nations Climate Conference, begins today in Azerbaijan and comes at a time of significant political and environmental challenges. The summit will bring together world leaders, scientists, and activists to address urgent issues related to climate change. Key topics on the agenda include accelerating global emission reductions, transitioning to renewable energy, protecting biodiversity, and securing financial commitments from wealthier nations to support climate efforts in vulnerable regions. Given the current political landscape, these discussions are especially critical as countries strive to set concrete goals and actions to limit global warming. COP29 will be an opportunity to build momentum on climate commitments, but achieving meaningful progress will require cooperation and bold decisions from all participating nations (fingers crossed).

Recent weeks have been filled with significant international events: the UN biodiversity summit in Colombia ended without reaching key objectives, Donald Trump was re-elected as U.S. president, and the European Parliament is closely examining new European Commissioners. This wave of global activity continues as COP29, the annual United Nations climate conference, is set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, starting today. Over the weekend, delegates from various UN member countries arrived, preparing to tackle the ongoing climate crisis.

The COP29 agenda includes familiar topics, many of which have appeared in previous conferences but remain unresolved, necessitating their reappearance. Key issues such as reducing emissions, climate financing, and energy transition remain pressing and need meaningful progress. Although it might seem repetitive, experts stress that these issues are essential for meeting the goals set out in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming. The stakes are high, and while past efforts have fallen short, the urgency for action has only increased.

Fair Climate Financing

At COP29, the primary focus will be on climate finance—so much so that this year’s conference is often called the “finance COP.” The central goal is to establish a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate funding. Under the Paris Agreement, countries need to decide by 2025 how much financial support will go to developing nations for climate action.

For over a decade, developed countries have aimed to provide $100 billion per year to assist developing countries in their climate efforts. This funding is crucial to help these nations implement renewable energy projects and develop infrastructure to protect against climate-related disasters, such as building flood defenses or creating early warning systems. Although this commitment was initially set for 2020, wealthy nations only achieved the $100 billion target in 2023.

Doing nothing is not an option this time

At COP29, countries are expected to not only support setting an NCQG (New Collective Quantified Goal) for climate finance that exceeds the initial $100 billion but also to establish a timeline that delivers this funding sooner. Negotiations to define the NCQG began in 2021, and developing nations, who need the funds urgently, can’t afford to wait. Yet, the discussions are proving challenging. Often in global negotiations, countries gradually align as decisions approach, but that hasn’t happened here, leaving the outcome of Baku’s negotiations uncertain even after four years of talks.

However, inaction isn’t an option—especially for developing nations that are the most vulnerable to climate impacts. Experts argue that investing now in climate adaptation and mitigation measures, like clean energy infrastructure and climate defenses, is far more cost-effective than paying for recovery from climate disasters after they occur. Recent extreme weather events, like hurricanes in the U.S. and severe flooding in Spain, have caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damages this year alone. These examples underline that the financial impact of unchecked climate change is mounting, reinforcing the urgency for a decisive and financially robust outcome at COP29.

Beyond immediate damages, climate change drives long-term financial challenges. The World Economic Forum projects that the cost of climate-driven health impacts—through floods, droughts, heat waves, and more—could add over $1.1 trillion to healthcare costs by 2050. Climate change also amplifies inequality, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations and low-income countries that lack robust infrastructure to withstand extreme weather conditions. Developing nations often bear a disproportionate burden, both in terms of economic losses and the costs needed to adapt, such as building infrastructure to handle increased flooding or investing in systems to manage rising temperatures.

Addressing climate change

The second key focus of COP29 is climate mitigation, or the collective efforts to curb the progress of climate change. This concept encompasses reducing greenhouse gas emissions, switching to renewable energy sources, and lowering dependency on fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas.

In the last climate summit, COP28 in Dubai, a historic agreement was reached to gradually “phase down” the use of fossil fuels globally. It also included a commitment to triple the use of renewable energy sources by 2030. European Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra highlighted this as a major achievement, calling it a critical step in addressing climate impacts. COP29 will likely revisit these goals, particularly to assess how well countries are implementing the previous commitments and whether they're on track to meet the 2030 renewable energy targets.

However, recent research indicates that current mitigation efforts may be falling short of what’s needed. Many countries are still behind in their pledges, and debates often arise about responsibility. A common issue at these conferences is a reluctance among nations to take the first steps; countries frequently urge others to act first, creating a “you go first” dilemma that slows down collective progress. This mutual hesitation and ongoing climate events—like severe weather disasters—serve as a reminder that more aggressive action is needed. The overall sentiment among experts and advocates is that the longer we wait to implement effective measures, the greater the risks and costs will be for future generations.

"Achieving global climate goals will require collaborative trust and an understanding that all parties must commit and act in unison".

An increase of 3 degrees Celsius in global temperatures

Countries that signed the Paris Agreement are required to submit updated climate commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), by 2025. NDCs represent each country's individual plans to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts to help prevent severe global warming. However, many experts warn that the current level of commitment across nations falls short of what’s needed to cap warming at the 1.5 degrees Celsius target set by the Paris Agreement. With current efforts, global temperatures are projected to rise by approximately 3 degrees Celsius, which would lead to much more severe climate impacts than the 1.5-degree scenario.

If we combine all existing NDCs along with countries' commitments to achieve net-zero emissions post-2030, the estimated warming is likely to stay under 2 degrees Celsius—but not close enough to 1.5 degrees. This gap suggests that COP29 will push countries to develop more ambitious targets and, critically, to focus on executing their current pledges more effectively. Achieving this requires an urgent ramp-up in mitigation efforts, which means that countries will need to act decisively to reduce emissions and invest in resilience for a sustainable future.

Loss and damage

At COP29, a critical point of discussion will focus on raising sufficient funds to help vulnerable countries repair the damage caused by climate change. This issue has been on the agenda for several years, and during the previous climate summit (COP28), a significant step was taken with the creation of a loss and damage fund. This fund was established to ensure that developed countries contribute financially to assist those nations most affected by climate change, helping them recover from natural disasters and other climate-related impacts.

By the end of COP28, around $700 million was pledged to the fund, which, although a start, is still far below what is needed. The financing gap for loss and damage is currently estimated to be several hundred billion dollars annually, highlighting the inadequacy of the current contributions to meet the scale of the crisis. Experts believe that integrating the loss and damage fund into the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of countries—alongside climate mitigation and adaptation efforts—would be a more sustainable solution. This would ensure that a fixed amount is allocated each year to help affected countries recover from climate damage.

However, there is concern that focusing too much on loss and damage could divert funds away from essential mitigation and adaptation efforts, which are necessary to prevent future damage in the first place. As the saying goes, "prevention is better than cure," and experts argue that investing in climate mitigation (such as renewable energy) and adaptation (such as building climate-resilient infrastructure) is the most cost-effective way to reduce the need for large-scale damage control in the future.

Consequences for non-compliance

The agreement reached at COP28 to establish a loss and damage fund was a significant step forward, but there are still key issues regarding its implementation. The World Bank was selected to manage the fund initially, though it is intended to eventually become an independent body. The concern here is that the World Bank is dominated by wealthier countries, while the most vulnerable countries—those most affected by climate change—should have a greater say in how the funds are allocated and used. Although a new institution is being created to oversee the fund's operations, it will take time to ensure proper governance and transparency.

The pace of negotiations surrounding the loss and damage fund has been frustratingly slow, mirroring the sluggish progress in securing adequate climate finance for mitigation and adaptation. Some advocates believe sanctions should be considered for countries that fail to contribute adequately to the fund. However, enforcing such penalties is not feasible under the current COP framework, where there are no sanctions for failing to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—the voluntary commitments made by countries to address climate change.

Despite the absence of formal sanctions, there are alternative ways to enforce accountability. Legal actions are already being taken against companies responsible for climate damage. These lawsuits aim to ensure that polluting corporations contribute financially to the repair of environmental harm. This trend could potentially lead to broader regulatory actions where industries that cause significant environmental damage are required to help fund loss and damage efforts, creating a more systematic approach to financing climate recovery.

Oil states

The effectiveness of COP29 in Baku largely hinges on several key factors, including the influence of Azerbaijan's political and economic context. As an oil-producing country, Azerbaijan may have a vested interest in slowing the global transition away from fossil fuels, which could influence its leadership at the summit. This scenario mirrors discussions from last year's COP28 in Dubai, where the role of fossil fuel-dependent nations raised concerns. However, while Azerbaijan does have a significant oil industry, its carbon emissions are relatively lower than those of major industrialized nations like the United States, and it is considered a developing country. Therefore, its approach to climate change negotiations may differ from that of larger, more developed nations.

The success of COP29 will also depend on the quality of leadership from the chair, Azerbaijani Minister for the Environment, Mukhtar Babayev, and how countries position themselves in relation to each other during the negotiations. The political climate, including the outcome of the U.S. elections, could play a crucial role in shaping the summit's direction. For instance, the presence (or absence) of world leaders such as U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping could impact the discussions. Last year, both leaders were notably absent, and given the timing of COP29, it is unlikely that newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump will attend, especially if he chooses not to rejoin the Paris Agreement.

While the summit in Baku has the potential for important outcomes, its success will depend on political dynamics, leadership, and the participation of key global actors. The ability to make significant progress on climate issues remains uncertain, and much will depend on the negotiations and the positions taken by both developed and developing nations at the conference.

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