What's keeping the slow-thinkers awake?

Basic psychology says that there are two ways we think about and evaluate risk. The first is fast thinking, the second is slow thinking.

Fast thinking is our gut instinct in action, our amygdala guiding our decisions and judgements. It relies on images, sounds, feelings to make quick decisions to protect ourselves in dangerous situations. We generally rely on fast thinking to assess immediate risks and this is effective in the main, but it can mislead us in some cases, causing us to underestimate the severity of a situation.

The second way of thinking is slow thinking - a more recent evolution of the human brain. Slow thinking relies on logic, data and making evaluated judgements with expertise and experience. This method of analysing risks take a lot more effort in order to make a decision on how risky a situation is, but it is very powerful.

I for one am concerned with what the slow thinkers are worried about.

And I'd suggest that the modern gathering of slow thinkers is the World Economic Forum (WEF) bringing together government, NGO and business leaders and thinkers.

Amidst the snowy peaks of Davos, where the WEF convenes this week, a new kind of global threat is dominating conversations. The WEF's Global Risks Report 2024 places 'Misinformation and Disinformation' at the forefront of global risks for the next two years, surpassing traditional concerns like climate change and geopolitical tensions.

This risk is not only heightened by the technologies and connectivity that have enabled it, but by the fact that some 3 billion people will be going to the electoral polls in the next 2 years, and each of those people will vote with their own version of 'truth'.

The WEF's Global Risks Report, a cornerstone document for policymakers and business leaders, is compiled from the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS). This survey gathers insights from around 1,500 experts across academia, business, government, and civil society, covering over 100 countries. These experts assess a spectrum of global risks, providing a unique cross-sectoral perspective. The 2024 report's emphasis on misinformation reflects a significant shift in global threat perception, highlighting the evolving nature of risk in our digitally connected world.

The report underscores misinformation and disinformation as emergent, critical global risks. This finding is particularly alarming considering these threats now rank higher than extreme weather events, societal polarization, and interstate conflict. The report cautions that these risks could undermine the legitimacy of governments and precipitate civil unrest, from violent protests to terrorism.

In the chart below you can see the ranking of global risks over a 2-year and 10-year period. How the focus on these different time periods changes the ranking is fascinating (with environmental concerns taking the top 4 slots over the 10-year horizon)

It's also fascinating to see how the rankings have changed over the past year. Here is an analysis from the report that shows the most stable, the highest risers, and the farthest fallers in the new report released last week. "Technological Power Concentration" has risen 17 places, and "Misinformation and Disinformation" has risen 15.

The proliferation of AI and the digital divide contribute significantly to this landscape. Advanced AI algorithms can generate convincing but false information, manipulating public opinion on a massive scale. Moreover, the varying levels of digital literacy and access across different regions exacerbate the impact of misinformation, creating fertile ground for false narratives to take root and flourish. Knowing this risk, AI powers like OpenAI have published position papers ( https://openai.com/blog/how-openai-is-approaching-2024-worldwide-elections ).

The WEF meeting in Davos, with the theme "Rebuilding Trust," underscores the urgent need to address these risks. Discussions focus on how to combat the erosion of public trust and the potential destabilization of democratic processes worldwide. The report's findings serve as a clarion call for global leaders to prioritize the integrity of information and to invest in digital literacy and ethical AI development.

As we navigate this complex landscape, a multi-faceted approach is essential. Strengthening global cooperation, enhancing public awareness, and developing robust legal and ethical frameworks around AI and digital content are crucial steps. This collective effort can help mitigate the risks posed by misinformation and disinformation, safeguarding the integrity of our global discourse and democratic institutions.

In an era where misinformation can spread rapidly across borders, the responsibility to maintain a well-informed global citizenry has never been more significant. The WEF's spotlight on these risks is a timely reminder of the challenges we face and the collective action required to overcome them.

The irony is not lost on me that the same technologies that have made the world closer and now making that closer world more polarised.

This is what the slow thinkers are worried about, so I'm worried about them too.

Read the full risk report here, it's worth your time: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/in-full/

#Misinformation #Disinformation #GlobalRisks2024 #WorldEconomicForum #Davos2024 #AIEthics #DigitalDivide #GlobalGovernance