What's job stress like in your industry? A new index examines 21 U.S. sectors

As a career counselor in Lansing, Mich., Chelsea Jay Wiltse hears from lots of people working in restaurants and hotels. Last year, big ambitions ruled. Most of her clients wanted to stay within the field they loved, but switch employers so they could land a big raise or promotion.

It’s a different story today.

“The pandemic has really affected people in these industries,” she says. “They’re rethinking their careers and looking for less face-to-face contact. I’m seeing restaurant managers who’d rather be in a legal office, or a utility company.” 

Laid off. Furloughed. Worried about future cutbacks or difficult working conditions in the face of a lingering pandemic. These are difficult times across most of the U.S. economy. A new LinkedIn index tracks job-market stress levels in 21 industries -- with an eye to spotting what’s getting better or tougher in each field.

Specifically, the LinkedIn Labor Stress Index provides a normalized count of LinkedIn members who have provided explicit signals in their public-profile information that they are unemployed and looking for new work. These signals include stating "looking for work" in member headline, current title or current employer sections of their profiles. This metric is updated daily. It covers everyone from front-line workers to managers and executives.

Since Jan. 1 the Labor Stress Index has climbed across the board, tracking the degree to which the COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy. But the intensity of the rise varies substantially by industry. So, too, does the shape of the curve.

Exactly as career counselors suspect, recreation and travel has seen one of the steepest increases in its Labor Stress Index. That measure has advanced about 27% since Jan. 1, while most other industries are up just 10% to 18%. Labor stress in recreation and travel has intensified even in the past few weeks, as hotels and restaurants in many states contend with the two-steps-forward, one-step-back nature of attempted reopenings.

“Everyone is looking for stability, but right now there’s a lack of stability,” says David Mowell, head of talent acquisition at Westgate Resorts in Orlando, Fla. Unemployment checks of $600 a week provided a halfway tolerable cushion for out-of-work clerks, servers and custodial people.

With those benefits winding down, however -- and Congress still struggling to approve an alternative -- being jobless may become a lot tougher, he observes. 

Of the 21 industries tracked by the LinkedIn Labor Stress Index, finance shows the slowest increase so far in 2020, at 8%. Other industries between 10% and 17% include hardware and networking, healthcare, education, arts, transportation and logistics, legal, real estate, retail, nonprofits, wellness and fitness, consumer goods and public administration.

Steeper rates of 18% to 24% occur for software and information technology, entertainment, manufacturing, corporate services and media and communications. Design registers at nearly 31%, and energy and mining -- which got hit by a steep drop in oil prices a few months ago as well as by COVID-19-related issues -- posted a 45% leap.

The Labor Stress Index doesn’t currently reflect the degree to which members in each industry signal on their profiles that they are open to new job opportunities -- a feature that was added in July. But the availability of this “open to work” signal on profile photos is a way that members can become more visible to recruiters if concern is rising that a current job might be at risk.

It’s striking to see that software and IT, a famously robust segment for nearly a decade, is showing a pickup in labor stress, albeit from a low base. Some tech companies have announced hiring freezes or have made cuts in non-technical areas such as sales, administration or marketing. 

In other fields, such as real estate, the trend in recent weeks looks more bearable.After a rapid acceleration in April and May, labor stress levels have been close to flat in all three fields.

It’s worth noting that a different measure, LinkedIn’s Workforce Confidence Index -- which asks members how they’re feeling about their jobs, finances and careers -- also shows recreation and travel as a particularly hard-hit industry, with sizable doubts about how well return-to-work efforts can unfold. By contrast, that survey has found greater optimism in real estate, too.

While education’s labor stress increase has been relatively modest so far this year, many big public school districts now are struggling to reopen physical classrooms for the new academic year. With doubts about how many families will re-enroll, the education labor-stress numbers could face new pressures before long. 

Health care is another industry of note. Its labor-stress index has advanced about 11% this year, less than most other fields. That sturdy reading, however, may conceal a schism between different parts of the sector. 

Demand has been booming for all sorts of health-care jobs related to COVID-19 testing and patient care. By contrast, there’s been a marked dropoff in scheduled surgeries and other routine care, as resources are being redirected toward immediate or anticipated pandemic needs.

In industries facing the most labor stress, it’s an open question whether long-time employees and managers will try to stay connected to the field no matter what -- or whether they will look to restart their careers in a different industry. 

Westgate Resorts’ Mowell notes that “a lot of people choose hospitality for a reason. They like making families feel happy on their vacations.” He’s hoping travel habits will rebound at some point, so that today's lightly visited hotels and restaurants will be hiring again to meet the needs of surging traffic.

That makes sense. Still, career counselor Chelsea Jay Wiltse says extended furloughs have “given a lot of people time to reflect on their careers, and to be thinking about what they might want to do instead.”

LinkedIn’s data teams have been going at full strength the past two weeks, researching other labor market trends as well. Here are some additional findings being made public this week.

Salespeople are displaying the highest confidence for any major job function, as expressed in an overall blend of attitudes about jobs, finances and careers, according to the latest Workforce Confidence Index report. 

Hiring in the U.S. continues to recover, according to the LinkedIn Hiring Report. July’s rebound leaves the hiring rate only 7.4% lower than it was in July 2019. But gains began to level out toward the end of this month, and hiring growth remains vulnerable to the resurgence of COVID-19 and expiring fiscal stimulus.

LinkedIn’s U.S. Recovery Tracker, as of July 25, showed most labor-market and confidence indicators remain in neutral or negative territory. The U.S. stock market is charting its own course, continuing to send positive signals.

LinkedIn data scientist Michael Lombard contributed to this article.