What's Hot at COP29 in Baku: Nov. 22

NEGOTIATIONS & NEWS UPDATE

• New texts, same division?- Yesterday morning several draft decision texts were published by the Presidency including on the new finance goal, the NCQG.? The COP29 Presidency then hosted a five hour “Qurultay”?– a word referencing historic political and military leader gatherings in the region – a Plenary Session for countries to openly share their responses to the texts and set out their negotiation positions.
• Both developed and developing countries were united in their dissatisfaction with the proposed texts. Divisions that have been apparent throughout the summit were on full display throughout the plenary, with developing countries mostly outraged at the lack of commitment on finance (show us the money), while developed countries focused their consternation on the lack of progress on mitigation. However, there was also a clear spirit exhibited by leaders to work hard throughout the day and night to secure an agreement.

The Qurultay concluded with the COP29 chief negotiator instructing Parties to go back to their negotiations and ministerial consultations to try to make progress. They suggested new texts would be produced at some point on Friday.

• X marks the spot?- While progress had been made in some areas, and texts narrowed down, the outcome is still uncertain. On the key issue of climate finance, there is still no numerical target for the goal put on table by developed countries (developing countries are asking for $1.3 trillion), and vastly contrasting options for the structuring of the goal. One option refers to a goal of ‘$X trillion’. Parties will need to fill in the blank over the next few hours/days. The other option which does not provide any target should be dropped, with negotiators and ministers likely now working on a ‘bridging’ option between the two.
• Omitting emissions?- Meanwhile on the issue of climate mitigation, the text still has very little substance, with no reference to the first Global Stocktake (GST), transitioning away from fossil fuels, tripling renewable energy capacity, and doubling energy efficiency targets, or any other concrete guidance on how to reduce emissions this decade. See WWF’s full analysis of the new draft text in yesterday’s What’s Hot here.
• Outside of the negotiations and plenary, there was also strong opposition to the current state of negotiations, with civil society loudly protesting the inadequacies of the finance text in the People’s Plenary. Meanwhile at the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) press conference, some developed countries focussed their disappointment on the current mitigation texts and urged stronger guidance on phasing out fossil fuels as a key outcome.
• What to expect today?- Today is the official last day of COP29, with no Presidency Theme and a focus on the final negotiations.These will happen behind closed doors and at a very high level. However, it is widely expected that more time will be needed to find agreement, with parties still so far apart and texts still so far from complete. We will have a better indication when new texts are published sometime today. We are told to expect a revised package of texts around midday and final texts tonight. No plenaries are scheduled yet.?

WWF QUOTES

Responding to the ‘Qurultay’ Plenary and the package of new draft texts, Stephen Cornelius, WWF Deputy Global Climate and Energy Lead, said: “More urgency is needed. The package of texts was not acceptable for many countries and the interventions in the plenary highlighted that huge differences remain. At its core this is about balancing between the amount of climate finance, and who pays, and what is said about mitigation and alignment with 1.5C pathways.

“The next iteration of draft texts needs to meet the moment and be stronger on mitigation and on finance, and all countries must accept that it is both or nothing. It is pleasing to see that ministers and their teams showed willingness to work through day and night to get us the balanced and ambitious outcome we need. Now is the time to deliver.

“Negotiations are rapidly approaching the end of regular time, and we expect COP29 will run well into overtime, with no outcome expected until the weekend.”

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