What’s on the horizon for interest rates?
Interest rates look set to remain higher for longer with the timing of potential rate cuts having been pushed out and remaining uncertain.?
This week the Reserve Bank held the cash rate steady at 4.35%.??
This sustained pause reflects the current high interest rate environment and expected easing in inflation still to come as the economy, businesses, and consumers continue to adjust to the full impact of the significant interest rate tightening delivered since May 2022.??
Although inflation has not fallen as quickly as expected early this year, retail sales and consumption are weak, and consumer sentiment remains low, though the labour market remains resilient.?
Higher-than-expected inflation in the March quarter confirmed the challenging journey towards lower inflation, but the RBA board remains forward looking, anticipating a further decline in inflation by the end of the year with policy remaining tight. As a result, for now, the cash rate is deemed appropriate.??
However, the March quarter inflation surprise has pushed back the expected timing of rate cuts.??
Ahead of the inflation release, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures implied yield curve suggested investors were pricing that interest rates would first be cut in October 2024.??
This has now changed and as at market close on the 9th of May, markets were pricing a 100% chance that interest rates would be cut to 4.10% by August 2025, though as we have seen, market expectations can change quickly.?
Ahead of the meeting markets had also priced a 40% chance of a 25-basis point rate hike in August, but this has now dissipated. While the RBA held interest rates steady and acknowledged policy remains tight, the possibility of another rate rise in the coming months was not been completely ruled out should conditions warrant.??
But speaking on behalf of the board, RBA governor Michele Bullock noted: “we don't think we necessarily have to tighten again”, seemingly confirming that interest rates will remain higher for longer.?
It is unlikely those conditions warranting a further lift in interest rates will arise unless the things take an unexpected turn. For example, if inflation were to materially re-accelerate if the impact of tax cuts fuels an uplift in spending over and above what’s anticipated.??
This year’s federal budget will also be one to watch, with the shortfall in housing supply in focus alongside the cost of living, manufacturing and industry policy, and the net zero transition.??
When the 2024 budget is handed down next week, we know the updated stage three tax cuts will be included alongside student debt relief. But it’s likely the budget will include other measures to bolster the economy and provide some short-term cost-of-living help for those in need.?
Should these measures be more expansionary than expected, there is a possibility that the outlook for inflation shifts. However, this is unlikely given treasurer Jim Chalmers’ focus on balancing policy to avoid stoking inflationary pressures while still achieving long term growth.?
Given the RBA board has been clear that it has a low tolerance for allowing inflation to return to target more slowly than expected, the updated forecasts released with the latest Statement on Monetary Policy give a further clue that interest rates have likely peaked.??
Although the trimmed mean inflation forecast was revised up for the next few quarters, it is still expected to return to the middle of the target range on the original timeline, indicating that although the path to disinflation is expected to be bumpy, inflation is still expected to return to target by June 2026.??
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Despite the expected timing of rate cuts being pushed back and remaining uncertain, most still expect that the next move for interest rates will be down. Although the prospect of an interest rate cut in 2024 has declined, interest rates look set to remain steady in the coming months.?
Meanwhile, the RBA’s updated forecasts show a sharp decline in dwelling investment that is expected to continue placing further pressure on the residential construction pipeline that has already shrunk significantly.?
This is not new news, but is problematic given the significant shortfall in housing supply flowing through to both prices for existing homes and the rental market, driving up house prices and rents.?
Building activity is at decade-low levels. The lack of new construction means there will likely be an ongoing shortage of new builds and homes to rent, with a prolonged imbalance between the flow of supply and housing demand likely to further pressure affordability for renters and buyers.?
Encouragingly, housing is expected to form a significant part of the 2024 federal budget priorities for the Albanese Government’s re-election campaign.??
The housing shortage is a central issue, with prices of homes at record highs, affordability at its worst in more than two decades and the rental market in crisis.?
The government has made a commitment to build 1.2 million new homes by the end of 2029, but they’re currently falling well short of that target. ?
Labour shortages have been a critical issue hampering the ability of the industry to deliver on new supply, so it’s encouraging that a reported $90.6m has been allocated towards boosting skilled workers in construction and housing.?
However, with demand for housing remaining strong and measures to ease supply constraints far from imminent, the imbalance between supply and demand that has offset the higher interest rate environment and deterioration in affordability is expected to remain, fuelling further price rises.?
Although higher-than-expected inflation in the March quarter has pushed back the expected timing of rate cuts, most still expect that the next move for interest rates will be down. However, the timing remains uncertain.?
Further, falling inflation and tax cuts on July 1 will support real incomes and household spending over the second half of this year.?
As a result, prices are expected to lift further in the months ahead, though it’s likely the pace of growth will continue slowing as the seasonally quieter winter months unfold, particularly in tandem with rate cut expectations being pushed further out.?
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