WHAT’S DRIVING GLOBAL WARMING? - MAN OR EARTH

It’s well established that before man walked the Earth, Green houses gases were a part of Earth’s atmosphere. That green-house effect was not entirely man’s creation. Earth’s atmosphere trapped solar heat making the planet habitable for homo sapiens as an adaptation of Earth to house life.?

So, is industrialization the primary factor driving global warming? Scientists debate.

Let’s dive deeper.

Scientists and climate experts claim that we are past the point of no return on global warming. With 2016 being the hottest year on record in human history, 196 countries entered into the Paris Agreement to aid battle climate change. Under the Paris agreement the main goal is;

To limit the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “To limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃ above pre- industrial levels”.

As per UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, crossing the 1.5℃ threshold can have severe climate effects; heatwaves, floods and longer periods of severe droughts. (More on the Paris agreement later)

However, diving deeper into what causes global warming to understand this point of no return is critical.

The prominent GHGs; CO2, Methane and water vapour were already a part in Earth’s atmosphere. Archaeological findings state, that pre historic eons recorded 401ppm CO2 levels due to high volcanic activity of the already cooling planet. These levels are much similar to what we have today. Methane was a major GHG emission with 25% higher GH capability than CO2, but lasts only 12 years in the atmosphere. However, dinosaurs seemed to like it. As a matter of fact, the planet recovered wiping clean the dinosaur population with it. So, are we the next in-line for extinction?

Earth is a resilient planet and with its own recovery mechanism, and we are nearing the midnight of our own demise if global average temperatures run past 2℃. To better prepare of what to come,?policies and practices are being driven by the UNFCC and governments to lower Carbon emissions adhering to what is called a Carbon Budget. The target being 43% lower carbon emissions by 2025.

So, is man the main driver behind global warming?

The scientific community debates, whether global warming is in direct correlation to the industrial GHG emissions or is it a part of a much bigger picture.

Drawing attention to Heliometeorology, accurate weather predictions were made observing the solar activity and solar magnetism, having a direct correlation on Earth’s weather patterns. A physicist named Anatoly Diakov from USSR had accurately predicted weather over longer periods of time observing the presence of sun spots. Diakov’s predictions have held much accuracy and the correlation between sunspots and the changing weather patterns, including typhoon warnings were accurately forecasted. As per Walter Maunder, years from 1645-1715 were spotless- with no sunspot activity recorded and the Northern Hemisphere recorded the lowest temperatures going through a global cooling, known as the little ice age.

Although, this was quite phenomenal at the time, does it hold much precedent today? Based on solar activity, from 1997-2012 solar activity suddenly dropped, with no sunspots recorded at times. However, by 2012 the solar activity was back to normal. According to heliometeorology, we must go through a global cooling with 2025 reaching the Maunder minimum.

What we faced was contrasting; With global temperatures peaking, when it should be reversed. Just like how the dinosaurs liked, we are at 401 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. ?When we must be facing a global cooling based on the solar activity, we are facing global warming since the mid 19’s. The CO2 emissions and the temperature levels have not reduced over the last few decades. Which is adequate proof that Man and his emissions are the key drivers behind global warming.

However, accurate weather predictions are required to cut down the risks of global warming catastrophes, as the entire planet doesn’t undergo uniform temperature fluctuations.

The Arctics are heating up much faster than the rest of the planet. This means the glaciers are melting faster, adding more and more water into the oceans. In response, adding more and more water vapour to the atmosphere, increasing the atmospheric water vapour percentage. Water vapour is a GHG, thus it’s heating up the planet more. This is what we call a positive feedback cycle.?

hese positive feedback cycles are happening all over the planet, showing exponential changes in global temperatures. When the glaciers melt in the arctics, it threatens to submerge low lying Islands like the Maldives in the tropics. Heavy floods are experienced elsewhere on the planet, while the tropics are running drier and drier facing severe droughts. The planet seems to have taken hold of the baton on the global warming marathon, but is this all?

Permafrost is also stirring up other cataclysmic events. Permafrost refers to ground that has permanently frozen to below 32℉ for more than two years.

Stay tuned for more on permafrost melting and positive feedback cycles in the next post…………?