What’s Driving Egg Prices Up?

A Note From Natalie:

Hello and welcome to Forbes Advisor’s Weekly Brief, where we dive into the realities of consumer finance and empower you with knowledge to help make your financial journey easier.

You might start rethinking that second egg in your scramble—if you haven't already.

Egg prices are on the rise again, with the USDA predicting a 41.1% increase in 2025, up from a 20% estimate just last month. In January alone, farm-level egg prices—the price farmers receive before eggs go through processing and distribution—jumped 31.4%. Since farm-level prices set the baseline for grocery store costs, these increases directly impact what you pay at checkout.

This week, we explain why egg prices are climbing, when they might come down and how to shop strategically to avoid overpaying.

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Natalie Campisi

Senior Staff Writer, Forbes Advisor

What’s Driving Egg Prices Up?

The primary culprit behind rising egg prices is Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), or bird flu, which has led to the loss of over 166 million commercial birds across the U.S. The latest outbreaks continue to disrupt production, with many farms struggling to replace lost flocks.

Some consumers have questioned whether bird flu is really to blame for high egg prices, with skepticism about whether supply chain disruptions are being exaggerated. But Joseph Stramisky, General Manager at Golden Fresh Eggs Ranch in Fontana, California, says the impact is real and unavoidable:

“I don’t think there’s price gouging—chickens were dying. But now, we’re slowly starting to see them come back.”

While egg-laying flocks are recovering, additional outbreaks in early spring could prolong high prices. Government officials are weighing vaccination programs and stricter biosecurity measures to prevent future disruptions, though resistance remains from poultry exporters who fear restrictions on vaccinated birds.

“We need vaccinations for these birds, but the broiler industry [which raises and processes chickens for meat], has been against it because some countries won’t take vaccinated birds,” Stramisky adds.

How Much Do Eggs Cost Right Now?

Egg prices remain volatile, with costs fluctuating depending on location, egg type and supply chain challenges. While some markets have seen modest relief, others continue to experience record-high prices. The USDA's latest data (as of February 28, 2025) gives a snapshot of what consumers are paying per dozen at grocery stores:

• Conventional (Caged) Eggs – $2.47
• Cage-Free Eggs – $4.99
• Organic Eggs – $6.29
• Pasture-Raised Eggs – $7.99

However, regional price differences can be significant.?

In the Midwest, wholesale prices for large, white shell eggs climbed to $8.30 per dozen, while in New York, cartoned eggs rose to $8.53 per dozen. California has the highest prices, with the benchmark price reaching $9.22 per dozen. For consumers, these fluctuations mean keeping a close eye on local grocery store prices and considering alternative sources like warehouse clubs or direct farm purchases.

And high prices are keeping eggs off grocery lists.

Egg demand is slowing as consumers adjust to higher prices and cut back on purchases. Retailers have responded by reducing promotions and shifting supply chains, but prices remain elevated. The USDA’s Shell Egg Demand Indicator dropped 8 points to -1.70 this week, reflecting weaker buying activity.

Not All Eggs Are Created Equal

For many shoppers, buying eggs isn’t just about price—it also reflects personal ethics. Different farming practices and certifications come with added costs, which show up in the final price for consumers. Cage-free and organic farms require more space and specialized feed, while pasture-raised operations demand even more land and labor.?

• Conventional caged eggs—the most affordable eggs at $2.47 per dozen—come from hens housed in small cages with minimal movement.?
• Cage-free eggs, averaging $4.99 per dozen, allow hens more mobility inside barns, but they don’t have outdoor access.?
• Free-range eggs, priced between $5 and $7 per dozen, come from hens with access to the outdoors, though the amount of time and space varies by farm.?
• Organic eggs, at $6.29 per dozen, meet the USDA’s organic standards, meaning hens are cage-free, given access to the outdoors and fed organic, non-GMO feed.?
• Pasture-raised eggs, at the top of the pricing scale at about $7.99 per dozen, come from hens that spend the most time outside, typically foraging on pasture.

As a result, consumers who prioritize animal welfare often pay a significant premium at the checkout line. While some shoppers are willing to absorb these costs, others opt for the most budget-friendly options, particularly as inflation continues to drive up food prices across the board.

For those looking to cut costs while maintaining certain ethical considerations, options like store-brand cage-free eggs, local farm purchases or warehouse club deals can help balance price and values. While price differences may seem stark, understanding what each label truly means can help consumers make the best choice for their household.

When Will Egg Prices Go Down?

Egg prices may have peaked, but it’s too early to expect a significant drop. Stramisky notes:

“I think we’ve topped out. I’m already seeing prices going back down.”

However, poultry experts warn that if bird flu outbreaks continue in early spring, prices could remain volatile in the short term. While farm-level prices have stabilized in some areas, grocery store markups remain high due to supply chain challenges and lingering production gaps.

Egg prices are unpredictable, but understanding farm-level costs and supermarket pricing strategies can help you make informed choices. Compare different types of eggs, consider local sources and shop strategically to keep your grocery bill in check. Prices should ease later this year, but until then, knowing where your eggs come from—and what labels actually mean—can help you decide whether that $8 carton is worth it.

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