WHAT'S COOKIN' IN COOK-the pollsters big test on April 13.

With the name of the next Tassie Premier still in the hands of Senator Jaquie Lambie, proving that there is no reason to trust polls , and even the bookies, watch April 13 for the Cook post Morrison byelection.

Once again the media managed polls are telling us that the result is already in the bag, and Morrison's bloke from outside the electorate but firmly in the consulting stable of McKinsey currently carving up the public service, will be the next MP for Cook. Morrison led the government to defeat at the May 2022 federal election after which he resigned the leadership to join the talkfest circuit.

They say that Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy will run virtually unopposed in Scott Morrison’s former seat of Cook in the April 13 byelection, despite local dissatisfaction with a parachuted candidate and Labor’s decision to skip the contest, preparing a path for another woman to win next year.

Morrison's victory at the 2019 federal election in defiance of bad polling was dubbed "Morrison's miracle", but three tough years followed. Criticised for taking an overseas holiday while fires afflicted south-east NSW, Morrison's approval ratings fell. They recovered in mid-2020 as his government led the response to Covid. Disputes with state Premiers, particularly over vaccine roll-out, undermined support for the government in the second half of 2021.

Since then we have had seven of the only polls that count - by-elections in NSW, Qld, SA, and Vic and a full-on test in Tasmania, with only one win for the Coalition despite the pollsters saying the major parties are on a line ball 50:50 TPP vote.

For the record , with no ALP turnup, and another bloke parachuted in from outside the electorate, we have to watch where Labor votes land ( no preferences here)- to see what's cookin' in Cook.

Don't be surprised to see Nasha Brown and Simone Gagatam's names picking up the bulk of alienated women's preferences paving the way for Simon Kennedy to join the disappointed squad with Andrew Constance as blokes who knocked off good female Lib candidates.

This will be a test of Archer's challenge to the mysogenists shown to be partying on by the Higgins disclosures, the impact of Albanese's nomination of Sam Mostyn to fill the departing general's Morrison appointing Governor General, and Labor's one election loss leading to replacement of State Party Leaders.

For the record, and to prevent post election day retrospectives, we suggest that the swing against Simon Kennedy will be greater than the combined swing in the Southern States by-elections, in the order of the votes against Labor in Queensland, backing candidates for 'ABT' and 'BGI' parties {"Anyone But Them" and "Blokes Get It"} and opening the door for another independent woman to win a safe seat.