WHAT'S ON?

THE END OF 2024 AND WHAT TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2025 AND BEYOND

“Things can only get better” - the illusion of evolution and progress

Those who grew up in a post 1945 world have nurtured a belief in linear progress. Those who grew up in different eras knew that this wasn’t necessarily true. After the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 that became the Great Recession, populations world-wide reverted to the pre 1945 cynicism. It appeared that things could get better for some but for the majority things apparently inexplicably and faultlessly for that majority got worse.

Deception

The post 1945 optimism encouraged faith and confidence in managerial elites who ran business and politics, and who preached that a rising tide would lift all boats together. After 2008 this was clearly not true. Movement of industries, automation, job replacement, and immigration surges, in parallel with exponentially expanding inequalities with elites who, not only survived the Great Recession unscathed but appeared to profit from it, and the consequential explosion of technology led many to deception with liberal democracy and its promise of “things can only get better” linear progression.

“It’s not my fault”

Those who felt deceived by the managerial elites looked for explanations and resolutions. These were provided by simplistic arguments of the burgeoning populist right energised by easily accessible social media.

Covid

The Covid pandemic that began at the end of 2019 and spread throughout the world in 2020 revealed the inability of governments and health authorities to respond fast enough and effectively. People who had entrusted the managerial elite who ran the governments and health authorities felt adrift and insecure. The pandemic physically isolated individuals but allowed for connection by flourishing social media. This provided fertile ground for mistrust of government and festering of conspiracy theories to explain the ineptitude of authorities. ?

“There is nothing to fear, but fear itself” - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Yes, there is! Fear looks for blame. Blame looks for division. Division looks for antipathy and hatred. Demagogues surf the wave of fear. Illiberal authoritarian populists gain ground. Social cohesion breaks down.

Populists and pluto-populists

Populists’ vengeful and simplistic solutions give entry into liberal democratic governments. A bizarre coincidence of perceived interests of mega-rich and abandoned under-privileged encouraged “the turkeys to vote for Thanksgiving” – tax cuts and open slather capitalism with potential for corruption for the super privileged, and economic policies that can only reduce the living standards of those already finding or fearing it tough. Nowhere is this more evident than in the election of Donald Trump as president of the USA commencing 20 January 2025.

Trump’s promises

Trump has promised retribution against all those who opposed him and espouses an autarkic economy for the USA.

Retribution

The entire US administration is to be revamped by Trump’s incompetent but fiercely loyal nominees. They will be facilitated by the already stacked Supreme Court.

“America first”

Trump indicates a belief in autarky - produce as much as possible onshore, and with tariffs reduce trade and punish competitors. Economically this does not make sense and can only lead to trade wars, supply problems, and inflation. Trump’s tax relief benefits the already rich, particularly the coterie of mega-rich who comfort and console him in his fantasies. Already high US deficits will soar. Foreign affairs will be left to foreigners - a multilateral world played by regional powers in their own frequently conflicting interests. The post 1945 US system of alliances and international rules of order will be left to flounder.

Ukraine and other aggressions

Trump’s admiration of and desire to imitate Putin and Putin’s oligarchic economy with Trump’s disdain for Europe and NATO will ensure no more US support for Ukraine and its non-admission to NATO. Europe has a lame duck French President, failing German chancellor to be replaced by an even less confrontational CDU leader, and isolated UK. Right wing populists in Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, et al. will happily be Putin’s useful idiots. Putin will be tempted to, at best Finlandise the Baltics, Poland, and Ukraine, if not come back for second serving.

What can Europe do?

The only hope is for Europe to forge a strategic alliance centred on EU and UK and incorporate a reduced Ukraine in it with NATO article 5 like guarantees. Will this happen? Probably not.

Indo Pacific - “sauve qui peut”

US policy has been built on a system of alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia and goodwill from ASEAN countries, and India. South Korea’s declaration of and retreat from martial law reveals a society and democracy less sure than anticipated. Japan’s long-term ruling party has been forced into a minority coalition. India under Modi has shown more authoritarian tendencies and more opportunistic foreign policy. Trump’s lack of interest will encourage all of these to “every man for himself” policies. Policies of all players will need to accommodate China and/or India.

Will countries have to choose between India and China?

Competition between India and China is not a given. They have goals and means that could complement each other. Absence of US could lead to a duopoly domination deal between China and India.

Americas

China will continue its economic penetration of Latin America, aided by Trump’s hostile tariffs and migration policies.

Africa

The only European player, France, is disappearing from the region. China will also continue with economic penetration. Russia will continue with military intervention as will regionals like Turkey, UAE, etc. Combination of coups, environment, high birth rates, and chaos in governance can only stimulate desperate emigration.

Middle East – no time for biblical or archaeological tours

The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria caught all by surprise. External supporters, Russia, Iran, and Iran’s Lebanese proxies Hezbollah have suffered military and credibility defeat. Turkey, backing the HTS rebels will assert more control in Syria. This will include moves against the Kurds who control about 20% of Syria. The HST rebels are Islamists with origins in the Al Qaida movement. They are the most successful rebel group, but not the only ones. The question will be whether HST will be prepared to share power with other opponents of the Assad regime, respect religious minorities that abound in Syria, and refrain from aggression against Israel. Israel will see the impotence of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah as vindication of Israel’s aggressive quest its security. The Kurds in Iraq have enjoyed autonomy from the ruins of the US intervention. They may intervene in Syria to protect their ethnic brethren against the Turkish military and attacks from the soon to be governing HTS rebels. Lebanon has descended into economic disaster aided by sectarian and corrupt governance. ?The regionals Turkey, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the plutocracies of Qatar, and UAE will play for and against each other. The absence of serious US involvement will make for changing and diverse bedfellows among the regionals, all increasing and profiting from the chaos, bedfellows looking to ensure that at least someone gets in the end.

Australia’s choice

Trump will pressure Australia to follow on tariffs threatening to sink AUKUS and the subs that go with it. Trump’s tariffs are part of the policy to reduce China’s economy. Either way the one third of Australia’s total exports that go to China risks serious reduction. Australia will need to align itself in policy development more with its ASEAN neighbours in dealing with China (and India) in a less US reliant position.

How long will Trump last?

The impact of Trump’s economic policies may bring on midterm losses for the Republicans and endanger Trump’s control for the last 2 years of his term, but probably not enough to turn around his ideas and the policies that flow from them. He can continue with executive orders to get around a lot of obstruction from a hostile Congress.

“It sure doesn’t look like Kansas, Toto” - 2025 signals a different world about to commence

What can we do? - Either put seatbelts on for a very bumpy ride, or get under a table and put our head between our legs, and kiss our arse goodbye