Whatever be the result in Gujarat, it’s a win for Rahul Gandhi 2.0

The campaign in Gujarat ends and it is now time for people to decide the fate of their state. This election has been unique and special in many ways –it is the home state of our Prime Minister Modi and the first election for Rahul Gandhi as Congress President.

About 2 months ago, it all started with traditional campaigns like TV ads, radio jingles, social media campaign, traditional rallies, closed door meetings, townhalls, door to door campaign etc. It was a clean start with ‘Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe (Vikas has gone crazy)’ and ‘Hun Chhu Vikas, Hun Chhu Gujarat’ but nobody knew that it will end with ‘Ram Mandir’ and ‘Neech Admi’, dividing the state across religious lines and hitting Gujarati pride.

Recent opinion polls suggests that BJP will win the state, but will not be able to retain all seats it won in 2012 and will also face decline in its vote share. No wonder why BJP is looking desperate, restless and resorted to Ram Mandir, forgetting Vikas, The Gujarat Model and manifesto (which they released just few hours before the voting). On the other hand Congress is desperate and in a hurry because they have realised and know that there is a close fight and actually a chance to defeat PM in his home state.

In terms of campaign strategy and positioning, BJP started with ‘Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas’ and then came up with strong and innovative rebuttal of Congress’s ‘Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe’ with ‘Hun Chhu Vikas, Hun Chhu Gujarat’. BJP used this positioning not only on social media, TV Ads, radio jingles but also in on-ground campaigns. The narrative BJP started building was that Vikas is synonymous to Gujarat which makes sense and logic. However, Congress’s social media campaign ‘Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe’ was highly successful and had gone viral. All BJP leaders especially Vijay Rupani were disturbed by the campaign and started speaking against it, only to help Congress. Congress introduced a new campaign - ‘Gujarat Navsarjan Yatra’ with Rahul Gandhi who was able to attract large crowd from all sections of the society. Through his yatra, Rahul Gandhi was able to establish himself as an improved leader who is better informed and knows how to establish connect with the people, both traditionally and digitally. During this yatra, Congress launched its 3rd narrative – ‘Congress Ave Chhe’ followed by ‘Parivartan’ and ‘Gujarat ka Naya Savera’ – too many slogans in a very short time, outcome of desperation. Although, it makes sense to say that first Vikas has gone crazy and that’s why Navsarjan is required which Congress will deliver. But, people should understand the whole storyline and the narrative before a new slogan is handed over to them. On the other hand, BJP continued with ‘Hun Chhu Vikas, Hun Chhu Gujarat’.

On the very fundamental campaign level – BJP is talking about Vikas and Gujarat while Congress is talking about Congress. Looking at the campaign song, Congress absolutely missed showing Gujarat or how their dream Gujarat looks like, it lacks the energy and tempo while BJP campaign song talks about Gujarat and shows only Gujarat – they got it right.

In terms of numbers, out of 182 seats in Gujarat, there are 67 urban and 20 semi-urban seats – which are still stronghold of BJP and where INC has not been able to make any dent. Recent Municipal Elections where BJP won all major cities like Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Jamnagar etc is the manifestation of the fact that BJP still enjoys support in almost all urban constituencies. INC’s traditional vote back THAM (Thakor, Harijan, Adivasis and Muslims) adds to 42% is not rock solid because NCP, AAP and Vaghela’s party will eat into their votes – mostly anti BJP. Apart from this, BJP has been trying hard to target Adivasis, Thakor and Kolis and make inroads into the Congress core vote bank. BJPs core vote bank – Patels, Brahmins, Jain and OBCs accounts to almost 55% which is also not rock solid for BJP.

With Patidars breaking away from BJP, OBCs will end up as kingmaker as they might change their natural home and might swing to other party. Non-Muslim OBCs make up 35% of the total voters with Koli-Thakore as the largest block. In this election there is high probability that Koli, Thakore and Patidars will not vote en bloc for a party and hence it is difficult to arrive at the exact swing towards both parties. To understand in detail, Patels have been loyal to BJP for last 22 years and have an effect on almost 70 seats in Gujarat. Patels are divided into two broad categories – Leva Patel and Kadva Patel, Leva Patel are present in more numbers than Kadva Patel, out of total 75 lakh patel voters more than 40 lakh are leva patel which are still inclined towards BJP while Kadva Patel (Hardik Patel’s caste) might do the real damage to BJP by moving to Congress. Koli have been more inclined towards BJP in the past but with Alpesh Thokore joining hands with Congress, it could expect some gains in the Koli vote bank. It will also help Congress to control the damage in the North Gujarat region especially after Shankar Singh Vaghela’s exit who had strong influence in the North Gujarat as well as Saurashtra region. If Vaghela had been present with INC, Koli- Thakore which forms 22-24% of the total population could have been the winning combination for Congress.

In a nutshell, both BJP and Congress know that at last OBCs will decide the fate of Gujarat and hence Congress joined hands with Alpesh Thakore while BJP talked about the OBC bill.

BJP looks set to retain Gujarat especially when Kapil Sibal and Mani Shankar Aiyar served them on a platter. However, at the end of day everyone appreciates the effort of Rahul Gandhi, be it his yatra or connection with people or attracting large numbers in rallies or immediate suspension of Mani Shankar Aiyar. We are seeing a new Rahul Gandhi, who is more decisive, more logical and understands people and their needs. It is still win a Rahul Gandhi who made Modi so nervous in his home ground that whole BJP machinery forgot Vikas, forgot agenda and finally had to use their ‘Brahmastra’ of ‘Ram Mandir’ which is the manifestation of the fact they know that winning their own state has become so difficult.

Nobody had really imagined that the fight in Gujarat will be so close especially when it is home ground of someone like Modi who also happens to be the Prime Minister. Even a 1 seat less than their previous tally of 116 should lead to course correction and introspection before General Election 2019 as NaMo and BJP now has RaGa 2.0 to worry about.