Whatchu gonna do with all that funds?

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??This week: Singapore has published the eligibility criteria for carbon credits that companies may use from 2024 onwards to offset up to 5 per cent of their taxable emissions.

By the end of the year, the government will release a list of credits and methodologies that meet the criteria of its International Carbon Credit framework.

Driving all that fuss about carbon credits is anticipation for the large and imminent jump in Singapore’s carbon tax rate. Singapore is set to collect a considerable amount of additional carbon tax revenue in the coming decade, but constitutional rules may impose constraints on how that revenue is utilised to address climate change. Holding those collections within a long-term climate trust fund could provide important fiscal flexibility to support Singapore’s decarbonisation journey.

Come 2024, Singapore’s carbon tax, which covers about 80 per cent of emissions in the country, will increase to S$25 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is five times the current rate of S$5 per tonne.

The hike means that carbon tax revenue in 2025 – the first year in which tax collections will reflect the new tax rate – could also be five times what it is now. The current Singapore Budget projects S$215.2 million of carbon tax revenue for the year ending Mar 31, 2024, which means carbon tax revenue could contribute more than S$1 billion to the Budget in 2025.

The carbon tax rate is scheduled to further increase to S$45 per tonne in 2026. By 2030, Singapore is aiming for a carbon tax of between S$50 and S$80 per tonne of emissions. At that point, annual carbon tax collections could be between S$2 billion and S$4 billion – assuming Singapore achieves its goal of post-peak annual total emissions of 60 megatonnes by 2030.

In a somewhat conservative estimate – assuming emissions are frozen at current levels and that only one more hike occurs in 2030 – total carbon tax revenue from 2021 to 2031 could be about S$12.9 billion if the final tax rate is S$50 per tonne and about S$14.2 billion if the final rate is S$80 per tonne.

Singapore has said that it plans to use carbon tax revenues to “support decarbonisation efforts and the transition to a green economy”, but that plan could run into a constitutional complication. Singapore’s Constitution prohibits each term of Parliament from running a cumulative Budget deficit over the term. Any surplus at the end of the term is then placed in the reserves, where it is locked up and may only be used under exceptional circumstances.

This means any surplus carbon tax collected by the current government will no longer be available to subsequent governments.

There is a way around this, and that is to transfer the carbon tax collections into a climate trust fund every year. It’s a Budget device the government often uses to ensure the continuity of well-defined, long-term programmes. For instance, in 2015 Singapore set aside S$3 billion to seed the Changi Development Fund to support airport expansion across the years. When it was announced in 2014, the Pioneer Generation Package for the elderly was supported by an S$8 billion Pioneer Generation Fund.

These funds last for as long as needed, and money placed in these funds can be disbursed as required. This means that if there is a surplus of carbon tax collections when the prevailing government comes to the end of its term, the surplus can remain accessible to the next government for its climate-related needs.

Why bother? Why not just spend the carbon tax money as it comes in, and leave surpluses to be locked in the reserves?

For a start, decarbonisation is probably going to be a highly expensive endeavour and a long-term journey. Those circumstances make fiscal wiggle room extremely valuable. Having money stashed in a long-term fund insulates decarbonisation efforts from the year-to-year uncertainties of the Budget cycle; greening won’t have to pause to accommodate the crisis of the day.

A well-endowed fund also gives the government of the day the ability to optimise the timing of spending to match needs. Take Singapore’s energy transition, for instance. It’s still too early to identify which low-carbon energy solutions will eventually replace fossil fuels for Singapore, so current investments into fossil fuel alternatives are rightly measured and cautious. As greater clarity emerges, however, it might be important to step up development spending on the winning solutions. A long-term fund allows those decisions to be made wisely.

?? Top ESG reads:

1. UOB has assembled a sustainability advisory panel comprising key officeholders from the Centre for Nature and Climate, Schneider Electric and Seatrium.
2. Singapore is stepping up efforts to develop green standards for businesses, including guidelines for methanol and ammonia bunkering.
3. Experts stress that private capital is essential to scaling up climate adaptation investment in Asia.
4. Strategic investors with significant dry powder could fuel M&A interest in Asia renewables, says Natixis’ Jonathan Tse.
5. BP is looking to rapidly deploy renewable natural gas facilities across the United States.

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