What is Your Re-start & Recovery Scenario?

You might be thinking - don't get ahead of yourself, we are still in lock-down! We don't even know how long this will last. However I believe that this is the perfect time to start thinking ahead - well ahead. As business leaders, we need to be thinking on two horizons. One on managing continuity and getting our people and business through, and the other on leading our people to a brighter future and to accelerate out of what may have been akin to a trickle, a quasi hibernation, or a full shutdown, to fully recover to achieve your potential again.

Firstly understand, your recovery business may need to look different to what went before. But what will the future operating environment look like and how long will this scenario last, how do we start to re-position our business in this period of ambiguity? As Robert Storm Petersen said, 

"It's hard to make predictions - especially about the future."

but as business leaders, this is exactly what we need to be doing.

At its foundation we can predict that there are either a V, U, W or L type economic scenarios (or permutations in between), depending on the combination of the length & effectiveness of the virus public health response, and the effectiveness of the economic response, combined with your business' financial position, your susceptibility to a recession, and strength of our brand in your market. Based on this we can then model each scenario and what it might mean to us, and how we can best navigate this to recover as rapidly as possible. There are a stack of other questions that may sit around the fringe, such as:

What does the world look like on the other side? Well you can bet your last dollar on the fact there will be a recession - just how long and how bad will vary. Will we transition back to Level - 3, how long will that be for and what changes for us? How long will our or other countries borders be shut to people movements or operate with strict quarantine? As a result will personal tracking and less privacy will be become more widely accepted? Will continued closed borders after the 'lockdown' promote more domestic growth in selected markets like manufacturing or tourism? When will international sales expos operate again - how do we showcase until then? What if some densely populated countries with less support infrastructure or governance like Indonesia, India and Mexico are hardest hit by the pandemic with tremendous effects on global demand and supply chains?

Will the lock-down's noticeable positive impact on the environment shift the focus back on climate change and shift decision making around travel? Will working from home be the new normal, and will the way we work and collaborate change companies and their cultures? Could high unemployment rates lead to governments introducing general basic income for everyone?

Has the lack of spending and the potential savings forced consumers to re-evaluate what they spend money on - especially in the short to medium term? Will the mindset of essential and non-essential influence business decisions and purchasing decisions of consumers?

Will political election cycles be delayed in NZ and the US. What will this mean and how could it play out? Will we know enough about how our governments responded to consider the current leaders villains or victors? How will governments likely stimulate the economy and can you have a part to play?

Importantly, what are the likely upswing markets? What are the big opportunities for our skill-set/product-set? What is happening and shifting in our market? Who might not be there? How could we deliver differently? Will collaboration be more important than just merely competition? Who could you collaborate with? What don't we want to go back to - so harness the change opportunity? How do we pivot and go again? Because the business you make in recovery may need to be different to what went before.

“When you come to the edge of all that you know, you have two choices: Stand your ground, or build something better.”

So many questions with perhaps no immediate answers. But if we work with the known knowns, and known unknowns, and then make some assumptions (and we can), we can start to model our future business and have a plan ready for the most likely path to recovery. As we see the picture get clearer we can start to test, adjust and refine our plan, and have a plan A, B, C and D. Its like driving down a four lane highway and driving in the middle lane, with the foresight of a GPS telling you what is happening in the lanes and side roads ahead so you can change lane early and keep momentum. Once you realise you are in the right lane, "give it some jandal" and accelerate out.