What You Need, When You Need It - One Possible Tech Future

DOES SIZE MATTER?

A major tech buzz word these days is “form factor.” This term refers to the size and shape of the devices that we use. And in the arena of mobile device form factors, we live in very, very interesting times.

Over the last seventy years, computers have evolved from relatively simple-minded 100-foot-wide hulks into extremely powerful devices that can live on our wrists, or even in the notch of our eye glasses.

While witnessing those changes has been both fascinating and dramatic, it would be very short-sighted to believe that the evolution of mobile form factors will stop with the devices that we now hold in our hands and wear on our wrists. 

Let’s have a quick review of how the form factor of computing has changed during the last seven decades, and then let's suppose what may lie ahead. 

1946 to 1996: ENIAC TO THE DESKTOP

What we call a "computer” came into being right after WWII. Because of the technological leaps forward enabled by Turing and other brilliant minds during the War, humanity was poised on the edge of the Computer Age by 1946, the year in which ENIAC was developed at the University of Pennsylvania.

ENIAC was an 8 x 3 x 100-foot colossus that took up a huge section of a secret facility on the University of Pennsylvania’s campus in Philadelphia. Because it was military-funded, ENIAC’s primary use was to calculate the trajectory of missiles. Huge, simple, better at math than humans – that was ENIAC.

During the 1940's, 1950's, 1960's, computers remained largely the domain of the government and research facilities affiliated with academia.

Starting in the 1970's and 1980's, something new started to happen - computers shrunk in size in response to the movement toward personal computing. Although not everyone foresaw this step in computational evolution, the rise of personal computing happened very decisively and very quickly. During the 1980's and 1990's, the number of US homes with a personal computer rose very sharply. During that same timeframe, the US workplace went from being relatively low-tech to one in which PC's defined how we worked.

1997 to 2007: LAPTOPS AND BLACKBERRYS

Despite the fact that they had been around for a few years, cell phones proliferated onto the scene in a convincing way in the late 1990’s. At the same time that computers started to occupy our homes and desks, cell phones allowed us to access our personal and professional networks from wherever we were – or, more accurately stated, wherever we could “get coverage.”

Once desktop computers and cell phones occupied our important places in our lives, they became synonymous with productivity and effectiveness. We couldn't imagine what we had ever done without them. In terms of size, they both started to get smaller as they got more and more important.

The desktop computer was replaced by the smaller laptop computer. At the same time, cell phones started to get smaller. On the heels of all of these changes, many of us got a BlackBerry, a cell phones that supported e.mail capabilities, blurring the line between our computers and our phones.

And we went on in that mode for about a decade – using laptops and BlackBerrys.

While things were moving at what seemed like a great speed at the time, technology was poised for a yet-greater leap forward.

2007 to TODAY: THE COALESCENCE OF TECHNOLOGY

In 2007, something big happened – The Great Coalescence of Technology was launched when iPhone hit the scene. The revolution of device coalescence that started with the BlackBerry took a quantum leap forward when Apple released a device that had the features of multiple others.

With iPhone, many of us all of a sudden had a computer in our pockets that allowed us to listen to music (replacing our mp3 players), check our e.mail and make phone calls (replacing our BlackBerry), watch movies and TV shows (reducing our dependency on television), take pictures (replacing our cameras), read books (replacing our physical books), as well as surf the mobile web (reducing our dependency on desktop and laptop computers).

After the release of iPhone, form factors underwent a Cambrian Explosion of sorts. Large iPhones sans phone capabilities were created and called “tablets.” When consumers wanted something in between the smartphone and the tablet, we saw the rise of “phablets.” An innovative, if ill-fated, form factor came on the scene when our mobile devices jumped onto our noses via Google Glass. At the same time, the emergent focus on using tech for health-monitoring gave rise to the FitBit and other wrist-worn devices. Apple Watch was announced in 2014, attempting to coalesce the features and functions of most predecessors forms (which appears to have likely been overly optimistic).

Think of it - Over a seventy year period, computers changed from taking up an entire wall of a large room to occupying a small segment of the human wrist. Amazing!

The question now becomes – what might be next? What I am seeing causes me to posit that form factors may undergo some very unexpected and exciting changes in the near future – toward situational adaptivity.

THE FUTURE: WHAT YOU NEED, WHEN YOU NEED IT

There have been a couple of recent developments which imply that the tech we use will undergo fundamental changes in coming years. The first is the presence of malleable screens that show we no longer need to be constrained by hard, two-dimensional screens. The second is the exciting research being done at MIT in the area of tactile computing and adaptive form factors.

There are some very cool things happening with device screens. For example, LG has been releasing foldable television screens (watch this video, especially at minute 3:00). While it was easy to overlook these development as a bit of a gimmick, I believe it is of profound significance. LG’s new TV allows us to watch television and then fold the TV up and put it in our backpack when done. That's really new, and really different.

There are also some pretty exciting things being done at MIT and Stanford, where researchers have started to change how we interact with technology. Instead of solely interacting with tech on a two-dimensional screen, we are starting to see that technology can be experienced in a 3-dimensional, tactile mode. While clearly in its infancy, tactile computing will almost certainly be part of what we use in the future, especially among those who do some form of design.

While foldable TVs and tactile competing are very interesting in their own right, they are likely of profound significance when considered together. It is not the developments themselves that are so important, but what they may point to that is noteworthy.

What they point to - Form factors could evolve away from what is “just right” to devices that adapt to our needs in the moment.

This picture is best depicted with a hypothetical day in the not-too-distant future in which such a reality has come to fruition……

• Consider waking up one morning in the future and wanting to catch up on the news. You take your device off of your bedside table and pull at its edges, expanding it. The device grows into a size that roughly matches what people once called “newspapers.” You read and watch and listen to the accomplishments and travails of the world until it is time to start work.
• Once your mind turns to work, you gently push on the sides of your devices and change it to the right size for a productive workday, to the size that people once called "tablets." As you put your device on your desk, the flat table automatically changes to an angled one, meeting your device as you put it down. You do work for a few hours.
• Mid-day, your dog comes to the door of your office and her eyes tell you that she needs to go out. Perfect timing, you have a meeting that you can voice-call into. You squeeze your device into a shape that plugs into each of your ears, whilst wrapping around the back of your neck. As you multi-task, the dog and your colleagues both get some of your valuable time.
• Later that day, as you head out to a social engagement in your autonomous vehicle, you fold your device into a palm-sized form factor so that you can do face-to-face chat with the concierge at the restaurant. It’s a special night, everything must be just right.
• As you head into the restaurant, you smoosh your device into a shape that will fit in the pocket of your slacks, but without showing as an unsightly lump. Out of sight, out of mind while you attend to your company for the evening.

This picture of malleable form factors and self-molding tables – situational adaptivity – seems like science fiction, until you realize that some of what is happening likely points to it.

It is reasonable to see a future in which our general milieu will be a smart-environment, one capable of giving us options that conform to our specific needs at that moment, as well as maximize our productivity and effectiveness. With the rise of cognitive computing, robotics and the Internet of Things, the future promises to be one in which our lives will be increasingly managed by technologies that know more about us, as well as more about what we may need at a given point time. 

As mentioned earlier, we live in very exciting times when it comes to witnessing the evolution of technology. As things continue to move forward, may we approach the new world with openness, and even excitement.

Great things lie ahead!

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