What you need to know for Election Night

It is on! Election Night in the US is one of the most watched and analyzed political events worldwide—a high-stakes marathon where democracy unfolds in real-time. But with so much noise, polling data, and live updates flying around, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. Whether you're watching from Berlin or Barcelona, being prepared means knowing what to look for and why it matters. We will do a specific dedicated edition on the digital ground game of the candidates - for now, let's focus on tonight!

After months of dissecting polls and speculating on voter intentions, at around 23:00 pm MET (17:00 EST), we finally get a peek behind the curtain with the first batch of exit polls. This isn’t the typical European model where exit polls predict the final outcome. In the US, exit polls reveal insights—what’s driving people to the polls, their priorities, and later on, a breakdown of how different demographics leaned. It’s our first pulse check on the nation’s mindset. In case you decide to stay up - what times are the most relevant?

Want to stay up? Pay attention here

2:00 MET (8:00 PM EST): All Eyes on Pennsylvania

Polls close in Pennsylvania, arguably the biggest swing state prize with its 19 electoral votes. The fate of this state could be decided by a few key counties. Erie County and Northampton County, both blue-collar strongholds with a history of flipping, will be crucial indicators. If Harris performs well here, it’s a good sign she’s capturing the working-class vote. Conversely, strong early numbers for Trump here could signal a solid Republican hold in the Rust Belt.

Around 2:30 MET (8:30 PM EST), exit poll data will start trickling in, offering the first nationwide insights into voting patterns by age, race, and education level. This data won’t be final, but it’s invaluable for understanding whether each campaign’s core messages are resonating with key demographics. If Harris is underperforming with Black or Latino voters, or if Trump is gaining traction among younger men, these trends could carry through to the night’s final results.

3:00 MET (9:00 PM EST): Michigan and Wisconsin Enter the Stage

Polls close in two other major Rust Belt states, Michigan and Wisconsin. Michigan is one to watch closely, particularly in Wayne County (Detroit), which has the nation’s largest Arab American population—a community with increased interest in the election due to international issues like the Israel-Gaza conflict. Biden secured Michigan last time, and if Harris can hold Detroit’s vote while appealing to suburban areas like Oakland County, it will signal strong Democratic performance in the Midwest.

In Wisconsin, watch Milwaukee County and Brown County in Green Bay. Milwaukee’s urban vote is essential for Harris, while rural and suburban areas like Green Bay’s Brown County will be Trump’s stronghold. If Trump is racking up big numbers in rural Wisconsin, it could be a sign he’s consolidating his base in key Midwest battlegrounds.

4:00 MET (10:00 PM EST): Arizona and Nevada Step Up

Arizona, where polls close at 4:00 MET, is the night’s focal point for immigration issues and Latino turnout. Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and over half the state’s voters, is a bellwether. If Harris is winning big here, it’s likely she’s securing Arizona’s electoral votes. Conversely, a strong Trump showing in Maricopa could indicate he’s holding onto the immigration-focused, conservative Latino base he’s built since 2016.

Nevada’s polls close, rounding out the Sun Belt swing states. Here, the working-class vote is key, especially in Clark County (Las Vegas), where both parties have pledged to eliminate taxes on tips, appealing directly to service industry workers. If Harris is losing ground here, Trump may well have momentum on his side. Conversely, strong Democratic performance in Clark could indicate that Harris has held Nevada.

These states and their counties will reveal telling trends as the night progresses. Keep your eye on these regions—they’ll shape the trajectory of the night and quite possibly the next four years.

The Battleground results to look out for & why

Why should we care? Across the entire US there are a total of 538 electoral college votes up for grabs and the winner will be the candidate that gets 270 or more.

In all but two states, the presidential candidate with the most individual votes from the residents there wins all the state’s electoral college votes.

If both candidates win all the states that history - and the polls - suggest are almost certain to vote for them, it will leave Kamala Harris 44 votes short of victory and Donald Trump looking for 51 more votes to become president.

The swing states hold 93 votes between them. There are two "routes" at play for both campaigns. The Sun Belt and the Rust Belt swing states.

They’re the first indicators of which issues truly resonated and can give early signals about key voting trends, especially in those all-important swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These are the states that both campaigns have been pouring resources into, and where every vote can swing red or blue.

The Rust Belt Battlegrounds

As the clock ticks on election night, three states in the Rust Belt—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—will be at the heart of the battle for the White House. With a combined 44 electoral votes, these states aren't just "swing" territory; they're the cornerstone of any viable path to victory. Whoever takes these three could very well take the nation.

These states have deep-rooted ties to industry and union power, traditionally favoring Democrats thanks to generations of blue-collar workers and union members. The Democrats have won this bloc in seven of the last eight elections. But in 2016, these states didn’t just lean—they flipped, and they flipped hard, handing Trump a narrow but decisive win by sweeping all three together. This means these states rarely split; one candidate usually takes the whole prize.

Kamala Harris’s Path: Urban Turnout and Suburban Support

For Kamala Harris, victory in these states means mobilizing an army of voters from urban strongholds like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Milwaukee. Here’s the focus: ramping up turnout among Black, Hispanic, and young college-educated voters in city centers, while simultaneously shoring up suburban support, especially among middle-class families and college-educated white women who were critical in the 2020 swing back toward Democrats.

In counties like Wayne (Detroit), Milwaukee (Milwaukee), and Allegheny (Pittsburgh), Harris’s team will be watching the numbers as they roll in. A boost in urban turnout, coupled with a strong suburban showing in Oakland County outside Detroit or Montgomery County outside Philadelphia, will be a key signal that she’s locked down the city-suburb coalition.

Trump’s Ground Game: Rural Dominance and the “Silent” Voter Surge

Trump’s strength is a mirror opposite. His campaign strategy is all about dominating the rural counties—the regions often overlooked but pivotal when it comes to numbers. In 2016, he pulled off massive margins in areas like Westmoreland County in Pennsylvania, Macomb County in Michigan, and Waukesha County in Wisconsin. These counties exemplify the “forgotten America” that Trump has appealed to: working-class, often white, and deeply tied to manufacturing and farming.

This year, Trump’s campaign is betting on a deeper reach into rural communities. They’re targeting younger, disengaged men who either skipped the last election or have never voted. A strategy of door-knocking, local meet-ups, and social media blitzes in rural strongholds is aimed at getting these voters to the polls. If we see high turnout numbers in these rural counties—especially in counties like Luzerne (PA), Livingston (MI), and Brown (WI)—it could signal a surge for Trump that could throw the Rust Belt back in his column.

The Scenarios: Different Paths, Different States

For Harris, winning all three Rust Belt states would push her exactly to the 270-vote threshold—no room for error. But if Trump sweeps these states, he’ll still need an additional boost from a state like Arizona, Nevada, or even North Carolina to get over the line.

This makes the Rust Belt a focal point not just for each campaign’s strategy but for every election night viewer. Watch these counties: if Harris’s numbers are strong in city centers and suburbs early on, her path looks clearer. If rural counties start to report in favor of Trump with wide margins, his strategy may be paying off. Either way, these Rust Belt states will dictate the night’s momentum and could very well crown the next president.

Sun Belt Strategy: The southern path to victory

The Sun Belt—stretching across Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—is a critical battleground this election, with these states’ 47 electoral votes potentially swinging the entire race. If Harris secures all four, she’s on track to 275 electoral votes, a decisive win. But this is a high hurdle: Democrats haven’t swept all four Sun Belt swing states since Truman in 1948.

Trump’s Advantage: Historical GOP Dominance

For Republicans, sweeping the Sun Belt isn’t just a strategy—it’s tradition. Since the Civil Rights Act reshaped American politics, GOP candidates like Nixon, Reagan, and both Bushes have consistently claimed all four states. Trump’s play here relies on revving up his stronghold among rural voters and maintaining his economic appeal, which has made surprising inroads with Latino communities in Arizona and Nevada.

However, recent inflammatory rhetoric from Trump’s camp, particularly targeting Puerto Ricans and other Latino groups, risks eroding his support. His campaign’s balancing act will be retaining this group while galvanizing the traditional Republican base across these states.

Harris’s Path: Mobilizing Black and Latino Voters

For Harris, winning the Sun Belt hinges on maximizing turnout among key demographics. In Georgia and North Carolina, high concentrations of Black voters are crucial, especially if she can replicate Biden’s 92% share of the Black vote from 2020. Yet, recent polling suggests Harris may face challenges reaching these numbers, underscoring the need for intensive voter outreach in Black communities to solidify support.

Arizona and Nevada are her other major targets, where fast-growing Latino populations could be pivotal. While Democrats have long counted on Latino demographic growth as a natural advantage, Trump’s economic messaging has shown surprising resonance here. Harris’s campaign needs a nuanced approach, focusing on economic stability, immigration reform, and healthcare to secure Latino votes.

Key State Focus: North Carolina’s Decisive Role

North Carolina is Trump’s critical Sun Belt state. A loss here would force him to secure at least two Rust Belt states and two additional Sun Belt states to stay competitive. The state’s Democratic vote history is sparse, with just one Democratic win since 1980—Obama in 2008. However, with a surge of college-educated voters and strong Black voter turnout, Harris has a narrow but real pathway to flip North Carolina.

The Sun Belt will be the defining front for both campaigns, with Harris banking on a diverse coalition while Trump doubles down on historic strongholds.

Voter Priorities and Key Issues

One of the most detailed polls on voter priorities was conducted by Gallup in September. It showcases the driving patterns behin

The Economy is King

With 90% of voters ranking the economy as a top influence—52% deeming it “extremely important” and another 38% as “very important”—this is the defining issue of the election. Economic messaging isn’t just a talking point; it’s the cornerstone of both campaigns. Expect each side to tailor their messaging specifically to regions feeling the economic pinch, with Trump likely emphasizing job creation and trade policies, while Harris hones in on affordable living and financial stability for middle-income families.

Trump currently has a 9-point edge on economic competency (54% vs. 45%), reinforcing his appeal in economically sensitive regions, particularly in working-class and rural communities. His edge extends to immigration (+9 points) and foreign policy (+5 points), solidifying his position among voters who prioritize stability and a conservative stance on international and border issues. Harris, meanwhile, holds a commanding lead on climate (+26), abortion rights (+16), and healthcare (+10)—issues resonating with younger and progressive urban voters, and pivotal in driving turnout in metropolitan counties.

Beyond the Economy: The Issues Stack Up

After the economy, the next critical issues are democracy, national security, and Supreme Court appointments—each likely to draw out specific voting blocs. Trump’s law-and-order narrative will likely resonate in areas with strong Republican bases, as well as in pivot counties where security is a leading concern. Harris’s campaign is expected to prioritize these themes in urban and suburban areas with high Democratic engagement, especially focusing on judicial appointments to energize voters who see the Supreme Court as a defining long-term issue.

Voters rank a wide range of issues—education, healthcare, gun policy, and abortion—highly, with 31% to 38% seeing them as “extremely important.” Harris’s campaign will likely lean into these topics to drive turnout among suburban and women voters, particularly in battleground states. Trump, on the other hand, may double down on crime and immigration themes to solidify his appeal in rural areas and among security-focused voters.

Don't forget Congress!

While all eyes are on the presidential race, don’t overlook Congress—especially if Kamala Harris were to win. A red Congress would make it challenging for her to pass significant legislation, as Republicans are favored to regain Senate control. A Democratic-led Senate would require a win in at least one unlikely state like Montana, Nebraska, or Texas.

The House is a tossup, and it may be days before we know the outcome due to prolonged ballot counting in states like Arizona, California, and New York. Control of the House hinges on several pivotal races. Early results from Virginia's Second and Seventh Districts could indicate Republican momentum in suburban areas.

Key battlegrounds include districts where incumbents face challengers from the opposing party's base. Seventeen Republicans are defending seats in districts Biden won, like Mike Lawler’s in New York’s suburbs, while five Democrats are trying to hold seats in districts Trump carried in 2020. For Harris, working with a divided Congress would mean compromises on core policies, forcing a delicate balance between her agenda and bipartisan negotiation.

Further recommended Readings for Election Night

Could ‘feral 25-year-olds’ win the US election for Kamala Harris?

What Meta Ad Library reveals about the campaigns

Why Half of America will vote for Donald Trump

Desinformation & Elon Musk in the US elections

Gallup Voter priorities

Key Flip races to look out for

A changing electorate and what it means for the campaigns