What the 'year of democracy' means for Canadian politics

In 2024, more than four billion people across 64 countries and the European Union, head to the polls. With Canada’s next federal election not expected until 2025, what lessons can Canadian politicians learn from this unique ‘year of democracy’?

The first is whether right-wing populism still sells. Rooted in anti-establishment and anti-immigration rhetoric, with a backdrop of economic fearmongering, the populist emerges during tough times, promising a quick, easy fix to complicated, intractable problems, so long as they’re entrusted with absolute power.

That was certainly the case in late 2023, where Argentinian and Dutch voters punched the populist ticket at the ballot box. Recent federal polling suggests the Canadian voters may follow suit.

And yet, last year saw liberals in Spain and Poland fight off right-wing challenges. Most interestingly, in the case of Argentina, the Netherlands, and Poland, ‘change’ was the real vote driver, something both Liberals and Conservatives should take note of.

Of course, the election everyone will be watching this year to test populism’s currency is the Biden-Trump rematch. But can Canada really take any lessons from U.S. Presidential elections? Their size, scope, and importance are beyond anything imaginable in Canada. And U.S. politics has always been an almost funhouse-like mirror version of Canada’s.

That said, the CPC have recently been willing to steal plays from the MAGA playbook. From its embrace of anti-LGBTQ+ policies and retreat on support for Ukraine, to old favourites (with a twist!) like threatening to pull out of the U.N…because it seeks to ‘turn humans into a different species’, the CPC seems keen on seeing whether the MAGA hits play north of the border.

Time will tell whether that strategy pays off. In the meantime, a more important question than the resonance of populism is the speed and scale of the economic recovery.

2023 saw incumbents feel the wrath of an angry electorate fed up with soaring inflation, rocketing interest rates, and the high cost of living. So far in 2024 each indicator is subsiding, albeit slowly. And while economic storm clouds still hover, central banks are expected to begin cutting rates in the first half of the year. This is welcome news for both consumers and incumbents.

The race to whether an improving economy takes hold in time for voters to feel the change before casting a ballot is now on. The European Union election, set for early June, is right on the cusp of that timeline. And a delay in interest rate cuts could have material impact on a raft of elections globally, including in the United States.

What does this mean for Canadian politics heading into 2025? Barring additional global shocks, which is by no means assured, the Canadian economy should be as healthy as any point since the pandemic.

This is good news for Trudeau’s Liberals, even though fiscal and productivity challenges remain, whereas it is bad news for Poilievre’s Conservatives, who must pivot from the claim that the economy is Trudeau’s responsibility. Incidentally, the anticipated economic recovery remains the biggest factor in the government’s decision to wait until 2025 for an election.

As they see it, voters are understandably grumpy and still recovering from a pandemic hangover. That won’t change until the economy does. And to go to the polls before that would be political suicide. Better to rack up some policy wins, wait for the U.S. Presidential election to play out, plan a goodie-filled Budget 2025, and ride a turning economic tide.

So, while an improving economy may be the most important electoral question to watch for this year, by far the most interesting and dynamic is the politics of immigration.

Long a fractious global issue, it has not featured prominently in Canada’s political debate for years. Indeed, up to a few months ago it was still simmering below the surface. No longer. Today, it has boiled over to emerge as a potential election-defining issue.

How the immigration debate plays out over the course of 2024 will instruct, though not define, its role in Canada’s politics. After all, immigration is seen differently in Canada as we are a nation of immigrants, understanding first-hand the unique benefits it brings. Indeed, it is why Canada remains, even though some tend to forget, one of the world’s most desirable places to call home.

And yet one cannot avoid the immigration debate due to its impact on everything from healthcare and housing to education and the economy. It will be up to our political leaders to avoid exploiting the sinister side of the debate for political gains, an all-too-common tactic in many parts of the world.

The answers to these questions – the strength of right-wing populism, the robustness of economic recovery, the reflex to immigration – are not only likely to drive election results in 2024 but heavily influence how Canada’s political parties position themselves heading into 2025. The ‘year of democracy’ could prove to be a defining one.