What would Trump 2.0 mean for space?

Everybody knows Trump loves space. He has had an outsize impact on the space program and he is proud of what he has achieved.

Donald Trump kickstarted the Artemis program, re-established the National Space Council, created the US Space Force, and initiated a number of policy reforms. It was his administration that accelerated the trend of commercializing low Earth orbit and made a pivot from Mars to the moon. He cannot take full credit for enhancing the US’s space leadership, but he deserves to take credit for mobilizing the team and accelerating the execution.?

So, what a second Trump presidency would mean for the US space policy? His second-term policy platform says “…the US will create a robust manufacturing industry in near Earth orbit, send American astronauts back to the Moon, and onward to Mars, and enhance partnerships with the rapidly expanding commercial space sector to revolutionize our ability to access, live in, and develop assets in space.”

From the party platform, Trump 2.0 does not seem so different from his first term, at least on the space agenda. Maintaining U.S. preeminence is a major component of his space policies.

He will try to enhance partnerships with commercial players (de-regulation), improve the Space Force’s capabilities (more space power), raise the role of the Office of Space Commerce (approach space from a money perspective), and expedite the Artemis program so American astronauts can get to the Moon before China does (beat China, here on Earth and also in space).

However, there’s one noticeable difference. Musk, who voted for Biden in 2020, has turned into Trump’s highest-profile supporter. Everybody is curious how Trump’s relationship with Elon Musk will impact US space policy.

Over the past few years, Musk has publicly argued that excessive regulations are hindering America’s future in space. He believes the federal regulations are either unnecessarily complex or outdated, slowing down his innovation. If Trump creates a government efficiency commission and lets Musk lead it, this initiative could reshape the regulatory frameworks and affect the entire space ecosystem.

But will he really choose to play an official role in the Trump administration? I personally doubt it. First, he’s already got too much work on his plate. Second, people will raise concerns about conflicts of interest if he’s given the power over federal agencies that regulate his business. Third, China is a crucial market for Tesla so joining the administration could undercut Tesla’s performance.

But I guess we will have to wait and see. They are alike in that their views are hard to map on the traditional political spectrum. Except that the new administration will push harder toward future space missions, nothing is certain.