What World Do We Want In 2030?

For global warming, people, planet, nature and the economy 14 April 2021 by Charles Appleby, Founder n0co2.org

We know we need to cut our CO2 emissions and live more sustainably. But what do we want for this new World???What do WE want for our families, for nature and our planet?

This article identifies key issues for the n0co2.org sponsored Webinar on 15 April 2021: What World do you want in 2030???

Details of the Event and the Replay are at our Facebook page:?https://www.facebook.com/N0CO2

There is growing awareness global warming is not the only crisis facing our planet.??Critically important are the linked emergencies of loss of biodiversity and loss of habitats.??

There is also growing awareness that the changes to create a sustainable world will affect us all as part and needs us to be part of these changes.??Changes are needed to our home heating, to electrify of transport away from fossil fuels, to the way the goods we buy are made, to packaging – and much more.??And awareness is also growing that important benefits of less fossil fuels will be less air pollution, leading to better health and less deaths.

With understanding of all these issues advancing, and the need for changes including behaviour change, it’s time to ask: What World do we want in 2030?

If this resonates with you, please Connect with me on LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/applebycharlesn0co2

Please message me if you have suggestions for additions or improvements.

OVERVIEW

Throughout 2020, commitments to Net Zero by 2050 were made by countries and by businesses large and small.??Nevertheless, as at March 2021, we are still on track overall for global warming of 2.6C! Which means catastrophe!

There has also been the realisation that if we are to achieve Net Zero by 2050, this is more likely if there are interim targets for 2030.??The UK has led the way by committing to cut CO2 emissions 78% by 2030, and the EU by 55%.

In parallel, the target to limit global warming to 1.5C has been talked-up by the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.??To keep Global Warming “well below 2C” was the target of the Paris Agreement in December 2015.??However an IPCC Report in October 2018 “Global Warming of 1.5 oC” said that to keep global warming at 1.5C would not only protect much more of the world more like the world as we know it, it would also be much lower cost overall.

Since November 2020, and the news of the election of Joe Biden as US President, the US has committed to rejoin the Paris Agreement and there has been much hope that the world can successfully tackle climate change.??Key meetings going forward are the Climate Summit of 40 World Leaders called by Joe Biden for 22-23 April 2021, meetings of the G7 and G20, and the COP26 meeting of World Leaders about climate change due in November 2021 in Glasgow.?

VISION FOR 2030

There’s so much to read about what we need to do, but what about what World we want to see in 2030?

1. By 2030 the World MUST be on target to limit global warming to 1.5C Max.??The December 2015 Paris Agreement focussed on limiting global warming to “well below 2C.” Nevertheless announcements in 2021 by the UN Secretary General and Alok Sharma, the President of COP26, have made it clear they support 1.5C.???

• There is much to this.??CO2 levels in the air need to fall from the March 2021 level of 417.14 parts per million down to 350ppm - and below.??And individual countries and businesses need to commit to Net Zero by 2050 – so that ideally the date for Net Zero can be pulled forward to 2042 in order to be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5C Max.
• 1.5C Max is also in line with the recommendations of the IPCC Report SR1.5 dated October 2018, which identified benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5C including: to provide better protection of our planet and the future for our children by limiting damage from hurricanes, sea level rise, crop losses, and land becoming uninhabitable.??The report identified that 1.5C is also lower cost overall cost than 2C.

1. Meet Targets for 2030 - It’s critical that the UK, EU and other countries must have actually met the targets they set to cut emissions by 2030?
2. By 2030, majorities globally must support the need for action to limit global warming and to restore and protect nature?– This is all too big to be done without people fully on board. What’s critical is that organisations and individuals at all levels - International, National, Local Government, big Business, small Businesses, Communities and Individuals - are all working towards these common goals.?
3. UN to meet their 2030 goals for 17 SDG’s - including no poverty, zero hunger, quality education, gender equality, clean water, affordable and clean energy, decent work, reduced inequality, action on climate change, and responsible production and consumption
4. By 2030, the World must be on track to restore and protect nature: a) To reverse biodiversity loss by 2030 as detailed in the Leaders’ Pledge for Nature - which is supported by 84 Countries: and??b) To achieve a global deal for nature and people by protecting at least 30% of world’s land and ocean by 2030 - as detailed in the High Ambition Coalition for Nature and People which was supported by 57 countries co-chaired by Costa Rica and France and by the UK as Ocean co-chair.
5. Soil Quality needs to recover?- Soil is the source of all life on land but the future of soil looks “bleak” without action to halt degradation, according to a 2020 UN Report State of Knowledge of Soil Biodiversity.??Causes are reported as intensive agriculture, excessive use of fertilisers, pesticides and antibiotics, erosion.??The destruction of forests and natural habitats to create farmland also degrades soil.
6. We need to be on track to a Sustainable World?- The December 2020 Dasgupta Review commissioned by the UK Treasury stated we are using the resources of 1.6 Earths. To be sustainable, this needs to starting heading back down to 1.0 Earths – even though the population is currently increasing at around 1% per annum.
7. Attitudes and behaviour need to be to protect nature?– It’s clear there needs to be fundamental change of our collective behaviour and attitude to nature - from something to be exploited to something to be protected. Because otherwise it will all be gone!??Instead, what’s needed is increasing rewilding, and restoring habitats, leading to increasing wildlife.?

HOW TO MEET THE VISION FOR 2030?

The need to cut CO2 emissions and remove CO2 emissions has been discussed for many years.??Yet how to achieve this is still proving elusive. So, what are ideas about how to achieve these Aspirations for 2030?

1. Sustainability?- Some resources such as the energy of the sun, wind, nuclear power, growing trees, plants and crops and animals and fish should be near infinite. But others such as land and materials are not.??It’s clear almost everything we have now has to be re-engineered to become sustainable, and non-sustainable resources have to be effectively managed and recycled.??One simple example that would help is for Governments to mandate that the manufacturer’s warranty on manufactured goods - such as washing machines - must be for 10 years minimum.?
2. Close Down Coal Power Plants?- It’s stating the obvious, but unless coal and gas are actually shut down, cuts in CO2 emission reductions will not be realised.??According to the IPCC, by 2030, coal electricity generation must fall by around 80% globally, and entirely in developed countries.??This is advocated by the Powering Past Coal Alliance which is co-Chaired by the UK and Canada and supported by 36 National Governments.??See?https://www.poweringpastcoal.org Closing down coal power plants will also reduce deaths: Air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil was responsible for 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, according to research reported in the Guardian in February 2021.??This is a staggering one in five of all people who died that year.
3. Phase out fossil fuel finance and end fossil fuel subsidies?– this was supported by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in his December 2020 interview with the BBC. According to the IMF, the fossil fuel industry in 2017 got a whopping $5.2 trillion in subsidies. Which amounts to 6.4% of global GDP.
4. Carbon Pricing:?This has long been talked about and seems a no brainer as a way to incentivise renewable energy – except that it still has not happened.??But now, to raise money to pay for Covid, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has at long last reportedly considered CO2 pricing of ￡75 a tonne of CO2 by 2030 – ie about ￡0.20 per litre of petrol or diesel. This did not happen in the March 2021 budget. But will this happen at COP26????Prices per Tonne of CO2e emissions commonly discussed are in the region: $50 from 2020; $100 to 2025; $200 up to 2030; and $400 up to 2040 - and higher still beyond that!
5. Climate Income -?Climate Income works by tackling the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases – burning fossil fuels. When businesses extract or import fossil fuels, they pay a fee, which rises each year. The money collected is given back to residents as a?Climate Income.??The result is that only the biggest users of fossil fuels have to pay.??This is already operating in Canada.??See?https://citizensclimatelobby.uk/climate-income/
6. Bill Gates 2021 Book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster?– Gates put emphasis on the key technologies that need to be developed if we are to cut CO2 emissions from essentials like concrete.??Also the need to identify and then reduce the “Green Premium” in order to stop price being an objection to adopting new greener technologies - such as electric cars.
7. Polluter Pays?– Continually there are news reports about damage to rivers, forests, land and oceans. Surely it makes sense to put a price on pollution that also includes paying the cost of Government agencies to police and enforce environmental standards?
8. Stop rainforest deforestation.?The potential is to reduce around 10% of global CO2 emissions. In 2017, land area the size of Italy was deforested. There are multiple causes including both legal and illegal logging, and clearing land for palm oil plantations, for cattle and to grow crops.??Efforts to stop deforestation are at the level of the UN and National Governments.??What can individuals do???Support campaigns to stop deforestation and NGOs such as Cool Earth, who work alongside rainforest communities to halt deforestation.?
9. Finance:?Hand in hand with the choice to stop global warming goes the need to finance solutions.??There seems a growing understanding that direct funding required by Governments is relatively low.??Because the vast majority of solutions and money needed can be provided by private finance and business – provided solutions are structured in such a way that reasonable returns can be made

NATURE BASED SOLUTIONS

Putting a Price on Nature?–?Commissioned by HM Treasury in 2019, the Dasgupta Review calls for changes in how we think, act and measure economic success to protect and enhance our prosperity and the natural world. Grounded in a deep understanding of ecosystem processes and how they are affected by economic activity, the new framework presented by the Review sets out how we should account for Nature in economics and decision-making.??The report proposes:

·???????To change GDP as our measure of economic success. Instead it recommends?‘inclusive wealth’ to account for the damage to, or benefits from investing in natural assets

·???????Large-scale investment in Nature-based Solutions to address biodiversity loss, help mitigate climate change and alleviate poverty

·???????To consider Payments for Ecosystem Services, so for example the World might pay Brazil an annual fee to protect and restore the Amazon

Rewilding and Regenerative agriculture?- Not just about planting trees, rewilding can also make big contributions to sequestering CO2 at low cost.??There is also growing recognition of big issues such as declining soil quality and damage to wildlife and insects from pesticides and insectides.??The result is increasing awareness of the value of regenerative agriculture, based around methods such as no till, animals to fertilise the soil, and no pesticides and no herbicides.

Plant Trees - Planting lots of trees on deforested land offers the possibility of cutting CO2 emissions globally by 10% for every year the trees are growing.??This can also provide paid work for families in extreme poverty, and create new habitats.??See:?https://www.n0co2.org??

?

VALUES

Embrace the opportunities of the new low-carbon world?– What we know is comfortable.??But what was the norm up to the end of 2019 is not sustainable.??We have to let it go.??And we have to focus on making 2030 better – and better for everyone.

Sustainability and Regeneration?– We need to move on from taking and depleting resources and leaving behind damage and chaos.??Instead isn’t it critical we move to a mindset of regenerating and replenishing???This is well explained by Christiana Figueres in her 2020 book The Future We Choose

Protect Nature?– Many people over 40 can think of examples of nature that been lost or concreted over – gone forever. During 2020 and 2021, report after report emphasised the catastrophic damage to nature, wildlife and habitats.??But these reports also proposed solutions like protecting at least 30% of world’s land and ocean by 2030.??And the economic reasons too for protecting nature.??Isn’t it time for a mindset shift to the need to protect, restore and regenerate nature???For the benefit of all?

Better Consumers?– Isn’t it time also to rethink the consumer culture of acquiring “stuff” that all too often is hardly used???How much can be replaced by the shared economy where goods are recycled, upcycled, or just shared for a fee???Even better – do we need much of that “stuff” at all?

Time to Embrace different values –?The Media is full of reports about greed and self-interest. Instead, isn’t it time for us to embrace fundamental values such as gratitude, humility, harmony, compassion, and care and service to others???There has been much discussion – including by the UK Committee on Climate Change – about the need for fairness as part of the changes required to achieve Net Zero 2050. Also the need to reduce inequality, and protect the world’s poorest who through no fault of theirs are likely to be hard hit victims of global warming.

The OECD attitudes and Values for 2030 including: These include “Strengthening and renewing trust in institutions and among communities hinges on developing core shared values of citizenship (respect, fairness, personal and social responsibility, integrity and self- awareness) at school in order to build more inclusive, fair, and sustainable economies and societies.”

Philanthropy a new norm??– Now that so many more people have more than they need, isn’t it time for values to change???Surely the more resources people have, the more these people should be expected to give to help others??

UK Climate Assembly recurring themes - There were recurring themes about values during the Climate Assembly discussions in 2020, including the need for:

-???????improved information and education for all on climate change;

-???????fairness, including across sectors, geographies, incomes and health;

-???????freedom and choice for individuals and local areas;

-???????and strong leadership from government.

WHAT NEXT?

At n0co2.org we make it easy to take action to stop global warming by planting lots of trees.??Planting trees is a Win – Win – Win!??Why? Because planting trees removes our CO2 emissions. And provides paid work which transforms the lives of families in extreme poverty.??And creates new habitats for wildlife!?

We are a volunteer run non-profit organisation.??If what you have read here resonates with you, do please consider making a donation so we can plant MORE trees. Because right now the world desperately needs our help.??By working together we can make positive changes to protect the future of our planet, our children and our wildlife.??

Click below to donate to plant trees! https://donate.n0co2.org/subscribe

RESOURCES

CO2 EMISSIONS

Climate Action Tracker - Currently expects global warming of 2.6C based on current pledges and targets of 36 countries and the EU which cover around 80% of global emissions. https://climateactiontracker.org

CLIMATE STRATEGY - RESOURCES

Bill Gates 2021 Book - How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions we have and the Breakthroughs we Need. Bill Gates sets out a PLAN to cut global CO2 emissions from 51 billion tonnes to zero by 2050, which is optimistic and inspiring?

Christiana Figueres 2020 Book -?The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis?

Mike Berners-Lee Book -?There Is No Planet B

UK Committee on Climate Change - https://www.theccc.org.uk

UN SDG’s - The 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), were adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015 as a universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity by 2030. https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/sustainable-development-goals.html

12 solutions can limit global warming – by Saving Our Planet: What can we do to limit global warming???This 5th?Point of View from Saving Our Planet dated April 2019 sets out 12 climate solutions: 7 people can action themselves, plus 5 more for action by Governments. See?https://atelieroneplanet.fr/SOP/SavingOurPlanet_POV5-2019-04.pdf

UK Citizens Assembly - In the Spring 2020,?Climate Assembly UK?brought together 100+ people from all walks of life and of all shades of opinion to discuss?how?the UK should meet the target of Net Zero GHG emissions by 2050.??Their report,?The Path to Net Zero, shows how a representative sample of the population believe the UK should meet its net zero emissions commitment with detailed recommendations across ten areas including: how we travel; what we eat and how we use the land; what we buy; heat and energy use in the home; how we generate our electricity; and greenhouse gas removals. https://www.climateassembly.uk/index.html

Energy Research Partnership – How Behaviour Change will Unlock Net-Zero: Behaviour change must be regarded as a critical element of future low-carbon policies, lifestyle choices, product development and infrastructure upgrades. A sophisticated mix of regulation, motives, nudges and penalties will be needed to motivate customers and industry towards Net-Zero. To succeed, these must be preceded with robust planning to ensure they are accessible and deliverable. March 2021 https://erpuk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ERP-How-behaviour-change-will-unlcok-Net-Zero_compressed.pdf

OECD - https://www.oecd.org/education/2030-project/teaching-and-learning/learning/attitudes-and-values/in_brief_Attitudes_and_Values.pdf

NATURE SOLUTIONS - RESOURCES

High Ambition Coalition for Nature and People - The High Ambition Coalition (HAC) for Nature and People is an intergovernmental group of more than 57 countries co-chaired by Costa Rica and France and by the UK as Ocean co-chair, championing a global deal for nature and people with the central goal of protecting at least 30% of world’s land and ocean by 2030.??The 30x30 target is a global target which aims to halt the accelerating loss of species, and protect vital ecosystems that are the source of our economic security. https://www.hacfornatureandpeople.org

Leaders’ Pledge for Nature - Political leaders participating in the United Nations Summit on Biodiversity in September 2020, representing 84 countries from all regions and the European Union, have committed to reversing biodiversity loss by 2030.?“We are in a state of planetary emergency: the interdependent crises of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation and climate change - driven in large part by unsustainable production and consumption - require urgent and immediate global action.” https://www.leaderspledgefornature.org

Terra Carta for Nature, People & Planet: As part of the Sustainable Markets Initiative, HRH The Prince of Wales, has announced the ‘Terra Carta’ – a charter that puts sustainability at the heart of the private sector.?Terra Carta offers the basis of a recovery plan to 2030 that puts Nature, People and Planet at the heart of global value creation. https://www.sustainable-markets.org/terra-carta/

The Economics of Biodiversity - The Dasgupta Review: Independent Review on the Economics of Biodiversity led by Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/final-report-the-economics-of-biodiversity-the-dasgupta-review

End