WILL WHAT WORKS NOW IN WAR, WORK WELL LATER?

While lessons from the Russo-Ukraine war are years away from being fully understood, first learnings are already apparent. Of these nuances, some can impact decisions now that affect future armament capabilities.

?Innovating onto 2040

In order to ensure the security and prosperity of a society, often it is technological and intellectual boundaries that must be overcome in addition to physical challenges and constraints.

?European security and defence innovators constantly analyse past events and present military capabilities and performance, in the context of prevalent global technology and system trends and upcoming requirements, to understand a future battlespace and necessities to win a war.

?Forecasting requisites continues to dwell at the heart of defence solution development. For decades, this approach “works” ensuring troops are equipped and trained today for the tomorrow’s conflicts anywhere in the world. Training and equipment of armed forces evolve and improve in this regard.

?Developing Now for When

What works is the consideration and coordination of numerous possibilities for 2040 warfare, (e.g., artificial intelligence, multi-role robotics, firepower enhancers, force multipliers, and network-oriented systems) the role they play, and how they are deployed – especially in the situation of recent and future protracted “Ever Wars” (i.e., Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Eritrea, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, Yemen, et cetera).

?While experts agree the more that technology attacks other technology the less the body count, they also concur that traditional infantry fighting still “works” and will remain decisive in battle despite warfare technologies and disruptors.

Being There

Human grit and determination, thorough training, boots on the ground, and a reliable supply-logistics chain functioning in a coordinated manner become a force multiplier, allowing a few to fully function as many. Managing men, mechanisms, and materiel together systematically “works” in deploying the right amounts of these warfare elements in the correct measure for an operational theatre. ?Many in the industry have their own experiences and perspectives.

?“There will always be a war on land. Even if precision operations over long distances using drones are already available and will continue to increase, soldiers are still needed to capture and/or defend an area”, enlightens Anders Wahlstr?m, renown infantry expert at the Swedish defence company Saab.

?Multifunction Equipment

The Swiss Army knife is both a tool and an apt allegory for what is required by war-fighters now and in future. This multi-role criteria “works” in air, on land, and at sea.? As witnessed in Ukraine, anti-tank / anti-structural shoulder-launched weapons are prevalent. These allow individual soldiers to defeat heavy material and fortifications without requiring an array of different weapons for different tasks.

?“From this perspective, militaries worldwide have a decisive edge with versatile armament systems such as shoulder-launched weapons,” clarifies Wahlstr?m. ?“Modular systems ensure these products are effective and reliable now, in 2040, and beyond.”

?Why Something Works?

Keeping fixed on shoulder-launched weapons as an example for a moment, it is possible to understand why they were suitable more than 80 years ago, how they changed into what they are now, and how they are likely to evolve for future warfare.

?For example, the Next-generation Light Anti-tank Weapon - NLAW - was hailed at the beginning of the Russo-Ukraine War because it defeats most advanced tank armour as witnessed in theatre. Roads leading into Ukraine from Russia are littered with NLAW’s mechanised victims.? ?

?It is the best in its class for forces operating under all conditions, and “works” ideally in built-up urban areas for its: 1) selectable Overfly Top Attack (OTA) against armoured targets; 2) Direct Attack (DA) for dismounted opponents inside structures and fortifications; and, 3) NLAW fires safely in confined spaces that one encounters with door-to-door fighting in Ukraine and other conflict zones.

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Urban Warfare

The effects of the climate crisis, famine, and terrorism the drive mass migration of rural people to sprawling urban areas. Often problems – like extremist terrorists (Levant, Maghreb and Sahel), and vicious organised criminal gangs (Haiti, western and South Africa) – follow with them.? Hence, military operations in urban terrain (MOUT ) become a probability for armed conflict more than just a possibility.

?When cities become battlefields, soldiers need adaptable weapons that can cope with this unique set of requirements. New capabilities of such shoulder fired weapons are specific for MOUT.

Short combat distances, complex terrain, and the need to fire from - or at - the inside of buildings are key considerations for enhanced capabilities.

While enhancing these war-fighter capabilities to adapt existing lethality to a new environment,? demands for greater effectiveness ?include increased accuracy, kill-chain speed, lower transport weight, and simplicity of use must be improved with each new technological iteration of a system. Better or more technology should not have the opposite effect; complexity slows progress and war-fighter operability.

Nevertheless, appropriate training optimises war-fighters’ ability to adapt quickly to new generations of a weapon or its ammo.

?Evolving Instincts

In some cases, new weapons can require a new way of fighting. War-fighter skills training in using weapons as an automatic extension of their person will remain essential for war. ?The ability to react in charged situations are as important as reading a landscape before engaging an enemy.?

?Self-evident this approach “works”, the more complex threats become – i.e., MOUT – the greater the importance of education and training, adapting automatic motions and reactions to these novel warfare environs.

?Active training with ODT / Outdoor Training simulators and live-fire training with real weapons will continue to be key components in soldier training.

?Virtual training opens up a multitude of new possibilities – replacing much expensive live-fire exercises on a large scale.

?At the tactical level, if it is about realistic, virtual, indoor training then use realistic simulations of the different weapons that replicate actual behaviour in terms of ballistic performance as well as handling.

?Looking into the future is enormously important, especially for those providing hardware and service. Thinking ahead of now in order to give war-fighters a decisive advantage on the battlefield – and we all know that “works”.

?No one can say for sure what the year 2040 will actually bring, but as a warfare evolutionary milestone, the “umbilical” connection between advanced weaponry, ?innovative training approaches, changing battlefield dynamics, and a skilled war-fighter. Infantry is still the future…because it “works”.