What we’ve learnt from reading thousands of Fed communications
We recently had the last FOMC decision of 2024. Market l participants reacted to the hawkish tone including Powell’s comments that the Fed’s year-end inflation projection has “kind of fallen apart.”, as well as shifts in the dot plot. It is intuitive that what the Fed says has a huge impact on markets, as well as obviously, actual shifts in policy.
For several years, we’ve been collecting Fed communications, whether it’s speeches and testimonies from FOMC members, statements of FOMC decisions, as well as minutes. We’re currently in the process of refreshing our history of Fed communications dataset at Turnleaf Analytics. We’ve scoured for additional communications, improving the format etc. We have sourced over 7000 Fed communications which span the past 30 years.
What have we learnt from this exercise of collecting and reading several thousand FOMC communications? I've picked out a small number of answers. I thank in advance the Turnleaf Analytics team and in particular Ben Cariss for their help in this very large undertaking!
There are many different types of Fed communications
The Fed has a decentralised structure. As well as the Federal Reserve Board in Washington DC...
Co-founder at Turnleaf Analytics / Macro forecasting with ML
2 个月I was going to illustrate it with a picture of the Fed, but opted for the Med instead (at least it rhymes, I guess?)