What we leave behind for the future will define it.

“Things change. And friends leave. Life doesn't stop for anybody.”―?Stephen Chbosky

The future is a swinging pendulum it can turnout in ways you least expect.

The World of 2035 - Part 3 - It's a small, small world.

In this final look at 2035 it's about us as humans the biggest concern as that technology, the environment and social issues all create division and that will make it very difficult for all of us. I don't try to solve the problem, I only wish to make you think about the potential of each and what solutions you could create to lead the future out of potential risks. The future is not easy to predict, it has been tried many times. We have to start with what we know and plan to expect the unexpected.

Politics and Law - A new media voice

We cannot ignore how governments are being reshaped by social and economic change. Everything from the January 6, 2021 Capitol Riots in the US to the Freedom Convoy in Ottawa Canada in the winter of 2022. Economics, jobs and financial security are at the heart of all social upheavals that take place. Political populist leaders are able to influence the masses against change that threatens them, even though the threats are not always accurate they are real to the public. This props up fear and political opportunities that anger your base and the anger can be harnessed for change. Even the word activist which normally suggests actions in the favour of the environment or social change also propagate division. This is the world that are in and creating. Add in economic and market shifts and you have people believing that their world is falling apart even though it really isn't. The power of social media is the delivery vehicle and it will have more power than it does today. What businesses face in this scenario is that taking sides can and will hurt their brand and revenue. That new social voice will be the power of those who go without the benefits of feeling equal to everyone else and their numbers will grow, because like it or not posting on social media today is free and democratic. As long as traditional media suppresses the public for their own opinion more division will be created. And we can expect continued efforts by governments to mute the power of dissension as we see it in China and other countries. Either way the world will remain divided if governments have anything to say about it.

Economy and Society- Affordable life

Our great economic divide will be deeper in 2035. Even if inflation was brought under control by year end 2022 (don't count on it). By 2035 if inflation grows at 2.0% on prices annually we could see a 26% jump on the cost of living over the next 13 years. Unless wages keep up, and they seldom do, the disparity in housing affordability and healthy living will take a deeper dive. There is no question that housing, its availability and affordability, will continue to be an issue in the future. History being what it is another economic set back is bound to happen by 2035 or shortly thereafter. In other words affordability will become an even bigger challenge not just for homes but everything. What does all of this mean for retailers? The growth of discounters and convenience stores has been continuously moving, adding more groceries and let's call it "just in time before-expiry date food items," will be a growth sector meaning more visits to stores on a daily basis to get it before expiry. Striving for a healthy lifestyle will add more social unrest. As we are seeing today with higher inflation consumers are trading down in food quality to keep their families fed. Of course this will lead to health issues as less healthy food items are consumed to survive. Governments and businesses alike will have to rewrite what it means to have a middle class life because it isn't what it was a decade or two decades ago. It is a lesser or at least tighter economic lifestyle for most while the upper 10% have nothing to worry about everyone else is managing through the unknown. Retailers will have to contend with that, with staffing and customers.

Environment - The de-activists

The environmental challenges by 2035 will remain to be climate change. The fear that we don't get to net zero will trouble many, the risks that society doesn't buy into green initiatives is another issue. And then we have what I call the un-activists that begin to push back on far too much environmental change, impacting society economically. For many years I have often wondered if all social movements to save the planet will run up against saving humans from struggling. We are taught that in strategy you always ask the "what if" questions because the idea that all will be fine is the biggest mistakes many companies, organizations and movements make. The challenge will be to bring everyone along and not simply ignore those with concerns. How effective will that be? The opportunity rests with how much improvements in technology are able to employ most to of the untrained population. Shifts in type of work will be very prevalent over the next 13 years and at a faster pace as technology has proven to do. The problem is that shifts to save the environment are seen as socialist movements and saving industries will be tied to saving society from economic hardship. It is quite possible that this latter movement can set back climate change initiatives and technology from taking root, as the pressures of change on industries rise to reduce emissions and jobs are lost. However, governments of any political colour need to do a better job in building that bridge to a new future and not simply kick the can down the road leaving it for others to take care of. If they don't the de-activists will dig in deep to stop change and that will create longer term problems. For consumer based businesses nothing could be worse than that, dealing with social division it does not create for an inclusive brand strategy that makes everyone happy. Even the adoption of the electric car will be a divisive technology and machine that alienates many from their comfort zones. Nevertheless, despite most predictions of failure this is emerging manufacturing that is taking place around the world. Ignoring would be a geopolitical nightmare.

Retailing into the unknown future

If the shift toward the internet and e-commerce taught retailers anything its that ignoring change is more dangerous than a new competitor. Of course e-commerce and the internet turned out to be the new competitors of disruptive innovation. Innovation is the key to business longevity. You can plot a course to establish the position of your brand but keeping a brand relevant is tough and it will become even tougher by 2035 as society begins to take sides, and they will. That has been the premise of part 3 in this newsletter. Overall it all sums up to the social influences and short-falls of changes that are coming. How does a retailer deal with all that? You can keep neutral, staying focused on being socially and environmentally responsible and do the right things. However, taking sides will be very risky and may even corner some retailers into exiting local markets because they no longer fit. Not dissimilar from the pandemic and the differences with consumers who wore masks versus those who chose not to. All of this is delicate and needs smart maneuvering with public trust and relationship building. However, desperation to stay in business as we all know can bring about the wrong decisions. In addition I expect what's been introduced here to give rise to many retailers physical and e-commerce only, or both, who just sell products serving needs based on price not quality or sustainability because not everyone will be bought in or can afford the future.

Personal Log: Technology and inequality

Despite the comments from academics and experts technology does not offer everyone opportunities, it is not a social equalizer. We have seen it throughout all of our lives. For example, kids not being able to have the same kinds of advanced toys as their friends. Inequality like it or not starts early, it shapes minds and opinions. Inequality creates more hardship and at time criminal behaviours. Some may think that criminals are born, no not everyone is mentally ill. Hunger, homelessness, poverty, lack of education these create criminal behaviour out of desperation. And yes it can start early. Why because of what the young are exposed to because of their parents hardships. Technology will create more inequality as jobs over time diminish in industries that have no future. That has been the premise for many populists, even those who charged the Capitol in the US and Convoy camps in Ottawa. All of this could be prevented in the future but it is up to industry and government to provide access to the simplest of fundamentals food, shelter and education. If we want to prevent all of this we need to provide the means to educate and elevate society to come along for the future or we risk many of the issues highlighted above.

You can reach me at [email protected] for inquiries on speaking engagements or advisory services to management and boards. I am a qualified and experienced senior executive and board director/chair.

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