What Are We Learning from the Russian Invasion into Ukraine?

?In the absence of a Marshal Plan, when large countries’ socio-economic-political systems collapse, the resulting system will likely be an authoritarian dictatorship seeking to regain the status of the previous regime.?The Soviet Union had no plan or funding to transition from a socialist based economic system to a capitalistic system when the Berlin wall was demolished and Germany was reunited.? Subordinate states soon left and the economy imploded. The discontent of the Russian people with Yeltsin and the Duma set the stage for Putin and his gradual aggregation of power.

Large stranding armies are no guarantee of success.?Russia has the fifth largest standing army.?While it did not commit the entire Army to the invasion, approximately a fourth of its resources are now engaged.?The invasion has been a military disaster.

The Russian military and its equipment were incredibly over hyped.?The invasion lacked coordinated logistics operations, qualified troops, quality leadership.?Their weapons systems have under performed in critical ways such as cruise missiles missing tactical targets.?The sinking of the Moska by a missile strike despite heavy armament suggests that littoral warfare may be another theater where traditional weapons systems are no longer viable.?

The usefulness of heavy equipment like tanks and troop carriers is not what it was.?These slow moving, large vehicles are easy targets for a mobile team equipped with anti-tank shoulder fired missiles.

The usefulness of helicopters is questionable.?We have seen helicopters downed from a distance using anti-air and anti-tank missiles. ?Guided missiles are especially effective given that they are not going to be chasing flares or chaff.

Drone warfare is the new normal.?These weapons are everywhere from surveillance to ordnance delivery.?Hard to detect, hard to knock out, these things are just nasty.

The Saudis’ allegiance isn’t to Western Europe or the US.?Russian produces approximately 11% of the world’s crude oil supply.?OPEC had suppressed production starting a few months before the pandemic hit due to a dispute with Russia.?The cartel could easily offset the impact of export restrictions on Russia.?But OPEC and most aligned Arab countries have not forgotten the British and the allies or the US and its stance on the partition of Palestine.?

Today, a local war has global ramifications, especially when oil and food supplies are concerned.?Russia is the 9th largest country when measured by population.?Ukraine is the 36th.?Russia has the 11th largest economy, Ukraine’s is 55th.?However, the war’s impact on the world’s economy is huge, driving inflation and food shortages.

A marginalized dictator surrounded by yes men with a large army and a nuclear arsenal is a dangerous mix.

Invading and occupying or annexing another country is generally a lose-lose proposition.?Ironically, Britain represents the most successful model and even though Britain stole countless generations of wealth, the British Empire eventually collapsed under its own weight.?Today, China's annexation of Tibet in 1951, the Moroccan occupation of Western Sahara in 1975, and American-British debacle of the creation of Israel in 1948 represent the longest standing occupations.?None of these situations could be considered successful.??