What we have missed, what we have found Another year of COVID-19, and what is next to do?
Seema Verma
I Building Success through Editing, Publishing, Writing, and Analysis, Designing I
Human lives, social contact, and human intervention engagement are gone—and so we should have confidence in our leaders to respond swiftly and efficiently in a disaster.
Our system stopped over a year ago. We went back home. We walked downstairs. Restricted schools, colleges, and other educational institutes and markets. We have lost work and loved ones, have become alone, have risked aid to others, have waited for God, have forested the future. We learned to fear. We learned to respect. What we didn't often realize: we were alone together, and our many private moments told a tale of adventure and persistence that made us iconic.
So much was going to be new a year ago.
A deadly disease in China was worrying, but it seemed to present only a small challenge to citizens of the Bay Area that happy Lunar New Year and Super Bowl celebrations went ahead as scheduled. Masks have become disincentive. Good viral testing has been forthcoming. Toilet paper was abundant. Ocean cruises have always been a special pastime for traveling. Unemployment was poor and office accommodation was in close provision.
These aspects have now improved due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The way we work, shop, socialize, work out, and stroll down the street, has enhanced our everyday life. Many are out of jobs and unable to get by. Some have lost acquaintances or families to the fatal illness.
"I will surely never have dreamed that we would be at this stage, several months later — millions of active cases over 141 M and 80.4 M recovery rate while the death risk is 3,01 M till April 2021. Lifestyles flipped upside down,", also fighting tiredness months after her disease.
But as the community is fighting its mass vaccine effort and worrying strains of the virus are on the horizon, we are making significant strides. Cheaper and more reliable testing. Patients live more than that. Destructive activities are limited, such as concerts and major athletic activities. Companies are redesigning critical goods in precarious production chains. Jobs and jobs come back increasingly — and our future with them.
The learned lessons will benefit science and culture later. And we can afford another one after we emerge from this pandemic.
Supply Origin
On 31 December 2019, China announced a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province, all related to one meat market. The source — a strange new virus — was described and isolated a week later. Early findings were reassuring, according to the World Health Organisation, of "no obvious signs of sexual infection to humans" (WHO).
We realize now as the virus, named SARS CoV-2, is originated from the bat and has 96% of its genetic material shared with another virus, the Yunnan virus, contained in Yunnan bats in China. We may not know how it traveled to Wuhan for 1,200 miles, why it infected any animal species next, or whether it was hit by human beings.
What is it that takes too long? Beijing has consistently prohibited a global pandemic origins investigation. After months of negotiations, a team of WHO scientists finally reached Wuhan on January 13. Their objective is to interview people from institutes of study, hospitals, and the meat industry. They will also examine data from samples obtained on the market offered by Chinese officials.
Despite China's attempts to hinder science, the WHO states that a comprehensive and open analysis is to be carried out. Greater international openness may help prevent the tragedy from repeating itself.
Tests
At the end of February, an stable woman in her 40s with a mystery respiratory infection was admitted to UC Davis health. However, since she didn't follow the stringent monitoring guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control — she didn't fly to China nor had interaction with travelers — the virus has not been found. She nearly died and is now one of the first community-acquired cases of COVID-19 in the world.
The shortage of affordable, widespread test kits prevented attempts to identify and control the virus as it was silently expanding, which left Americans completely oblivious to the scale of a future public health epidemic.
"The CDC was the only display in the city," recalled Nam Tran from the Pathology and Laboratory Medicine Department of the University of Colombia. "Tests for hospitals like us were not possible during those critical first months."
Too soon, too late, recent virus research has increased. But the commercial laboratories were overrun, and the samples were produced for 12 days. The exam, called PCR, was too costly for regular monitoring.
Since then, research equipment has changed significantly and supply has increased.
Two kinds of fast checks diagnose the virus. One form, the gold standard, is a smaller speed-up PCR test variant. The other kind searches for viral antigens, which are proteins on the surface of the virus. Although not accurate, these antigen tests are much quicker, easy to use, and will tell you if you are contaminated in only minutes.
"In a few months we went from the Wright brothers' plane to Space Shuttle," Tran said.
Soon we'll have samples to include a clear mouth swab or saliva extract. But there are also insufficient tests for widespread, regular surveillance. And they can't tell us who's still contagious, days after recovery—or who may move from moderate to severe illness.
Survivorship
According to Dr. George Lemp, the total mortality rate in May, comprising all confirmed cases from the onset of the pandemic, was 5.9 percent. Initially, patients received intubation and antibiotics. The more seriously sick is prescribed a medication named remdesivir.
The learning curve was high, and our pharmaceutical resources remain limited. Just four drugs are approved: Remdesivir, dexamethasone, and two forms of antibody treatments. For the overwhelming number of patients with mild to severe illness, no one drug is routine-effective enough.
Death incidence has fallen to 1.58 percent, possibly indicating overall changes in prevention and care for chronic disease victims, Lemp added. Clinicians claim they spot dangerously low oxygen levels faster and can help treat risks including blood clots and kidney failure.
"The care of patients with extreme COVID-19 should be commended for their valiant attempts to increase health conditions," he added.
A year after the recession, the U.S. finally improves its commitment to drug testing, with well-run experiments starting to elicit more credible responses. Three wide methods investigated: antiviral medicines that destroy the virus; antibodies that can fight it off, defending cells; and agents that relax the immune system of the patient, stopping a lethal "cytokine storm" triggered by an overzealous protective reaction.
'Distribution network emergencies'
Demand for toilet paper is depressingly consistent—so it's the prime candidate for so-called "just-in-time" processing, with minimal stock inventories. But the unexpected stay-at-home orders were selling 734 percent above the normal week, causing what's called The Great Toilet Paper Panic.
Companies are discovering a harsh lesson regarding the shortcomings of industrial production and distribution. Many things prized antiseptic wipes—are in shortage even now.
Only months after the pandemic's "liquidity crunch" rendered it hard to locate critical households and vital protective supplies for front-line health personnel, we now face the reverse problem: "demand shock." Home-bound shoppers buy so many goods online that container ships from China are waiting outside Long Beach and Los Angeles, idling. Airfreight prices soared four-fold.
Companies claim they're readier for uncertainty. They reinvent their supply chains, leveraging data to help spot demand patterns and reduce product range, making it possible to change procurement activities.
"We were hoodwinked into passivity as we had stable supply chains and reliable deliveries,". "That's no longer applicable."
Slow healing
Cliff Morrison, healthy and energetic, traveled to Miami University last winter to attend a film screening and earn a certificate. And he was busy with his health care management practice, introducing stringent COVID-19 precautions effectively at two developmentally challenged facilities. But Morrison, afflicted ten months earlier, has now entered the so-called "long carriers" rankings who are fighting a lingering and mystifying range of symptoms, including headaches, chronic exhaustion, or cognitive diseases.
"I still quickly fatigue. I still have breath shortages. I still get 'memory fuzz,' I can't recall facts and titles," said Morrison, 69. "That's a challenge for me every day. Nonetheless."
- Remain big concerns. How frequent are chronic symptoms? What are they driving? When do they recede? A test volunteer, Morrison is contributing blood, saliva and personal details to the Long-term Impact of Novel Coronavirus Infection (LIINC) analysis to be completed in December 2024. Comprehending this disease's entire therapeutic range can take a long time.
An emigration back?
John Gardner, like some other young software entrepreneurs, spent last winter slaving away at his computer, preparing to unleash his online fitness coaching company Kickoff. The economy was booming, and the state's unemployment rate was at an all-time low of 3.9 percent. With a vacancy rate of 4.5 percent, space was limited in San Francisco's commercial property. The average monthly rent in the city is $3,500 for a one-bedroom apartment.
Other metropolitan engineering personnel from Gardner and California assumed that when offices closed in March, they'd have a brief respite at home. Weeks turned into months, and many people began telecommuting to less expensive and simpler locations, often outside of California.
He moved out of his one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco's Hayes Valley, returned to Atlanta, and then hit the road, extending his company from a laptop in a rented RV while walking, biking, and kayaking through Utah and Colorado's natural wonders.
According to internet sources, cities such as San Francisco have an 11.2 percent commercial vacancy rate. The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco has dropped by 24 percent to $2,690. The average rent in Los Angeles has decreased by 15%.
A growing number of firms, including Facebook, NetApp, LinkedIn, Adobe, Uber, Slack, Airbnb, Microsoft, Target, among others, have announced that they would resume hiring in July or August. The return date for September was examined by Google.
The unemployment rate in California, which dropped from a high of 16.4 percent in May to 9.0 percent in December, has been met with skepticism. The state has rescued some 44 percent of the 2,6 million employees that were laid off during the pandemic in March and April.
Job hunters are looking for ways to boost the health of their workplaces. They'll qualify for flexibility in work-from-home situations. However, some of the potentials could have passed.