What we expect from jobs data?

US Jobs data comes after a large number of readings were released, suggesting sharp decline of US labour market conditions.

Now we will explore jobs indicators released since last month’s report so that ?we can have a clear view of how labour market performed in December.

On Friday, the jobs report will be released, providing vital insights into labour market conditions. This data, encompassing job growth, wage growth, unemployment rate, and productivity indicators, will be crucial for predicting future policy actions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

This week's job market readings offer a mixed outlook for labour conditions. While some indicators point to a positive trend, others suggest potential challenges. NFP, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings could either show an increase or a decline in jobs and wages. Understanding these scenarios is crucial for gauging the overall health of the labour market. Here we provide a review of all the released data to figure out two scenarios, one is positive supporting improvement in the conditions while the other is negative supporting deterioration.

Positive Scenario

This scenario is supported by the following indicators which showed improvement in the conditions

ISM Manufacturing Employment Index?(Fed)

Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (28 Feb)

Negative Scenario

This scenario is supported by the following indicators which showed deterioration in the conditions

ADP Employment Change?(Feb)

Challenger Job Cuts increased above expectations?(Feb)

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index?(Feb)

Initial Jobless Claims?(28 Feb)

Continuing Jobless Claims?(21 Feb)

Given the potential negative developments in US job market, which prevail the current situation, the upcoming release could have a unfavourable impact on market sentiment.

In such case, risky assets could suffer downside pressure if the negative scenario is realized.

If the opposite scenario is realized – jobs data come positive – US stocks could lead risky assets and the precious metal to the uptrend.

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