What we can learn from past energy transitions: Reflecting on Energy and Civilisation, A History by Vaclav Smil

Introduction

Vaclav Smil’s book ‘Energy and Civilisation, A History’ is both captivating and informative in bringing to life past energy transitions. In reflecting on his important book, this article has three objectives. Firstly, I describe how different parts of the world went from biomass to coal, oil and gas at different speeds. Secondly, in drawing lessons from past energy transitions I reflect on three themes: (1) The importance of technology and the thorny issue of distribution, (2) The role of collaborative brilliance and (3) The nuanced link between energy and development outcomes. Finally, I consider Smil’s fundamental thesis that it is unlikely the world will transition in time, offering a more optimistic view of why this energy transition is different. Ultimately, none of us have ever lived through an energy transition. The value of history as our greatest fund of vicarious experience allows us to glean lessons from the past as we look ahead to the challenges of today and the future.?

Part 1: Energy Transitions of the Past?

From Biomass to Coal.

Biomass fuels are derived from traditional sources like wood, charcoal and crop residue. For most of civilisation they have been humanity’s fuel of choice, though given their poor properties this is a cause for pittance rather than celebration. Their low energy density means that children in traditional societies would be roped into adult work and help forage for dry wood as early as “five or six years old” [1]. So what led the transition away from this imperfect fuel? Before the great British fuel crisis of 2021, there were the wood shortages of the 1500s, where the price of wood increased ten-fold over a century [2]. Only such severe shortages and expense could have created the will to transition to coal, given the huge deployment of current energy sources that is required in energy transitions. For 16th century Britain plagued by shortages of biomass fuels, that meant spending human energy and muscular exertion from men, women and children to points of painful overexertion. Today, the production of solar and wind energy depends on the fossil fuel-intensive processes of "smelting metals, synthesising plastics and processing materials" [3]. Whilst the fossil energy is a fraction of what the renewables will produce over the long run, there is still a significant deployment of current energy sources required.?

The UK led the energy transition to coal?

Coal to Oil and Gas

The proliferation of oil and gas has largely been driven by the search for affordable, high energy dense and lower carbon energy. For the Americans in the 19th century, it was initially about finding a cheaper replacement to Whale oil that they could burn in lamps. Its use would go much beyond that with global oil production growing 200-fold in the 20th century. Gas had a more difficult start. The initial concern was that because “it could not be moved over long distances”, it would have limited applications [6]. However, thanks to human adaptation and technological advances, the development of vast LNG carriers and steel pipes for transmission, gas has proved to be something of a wonder fuel. Emitting between 50-60% less carbon dioxide than coal, it is the perfect bridge fuel. It is therefore somewhat disappointing that there has not been a mass transition to gas. In 1900, it represented 1% of energy supply and by 2000, this was 25% [7]. Indeed there is a real risk to the climate that countries like India and China, use a large amount of coal persistently in electricity generation. Such an energy transition would be disjointed with coal use growing with renewable production. Overall, coal, oil and gas have significantly increased energy consumption per capita, prompting a quality of life that was hitherto unimagined.?

Part 2: 3 key lessons we can learn from past energy transitions

3 key lessons can be learnt from past energy transitions. Firstly, the importance of technological advancements. Secondly, the pivotal role of what I call ‘collaborative brilliance’. Finally, there is an important task of contextualisation, through exploring the link between energy consumption and economic development.?

Lesson 1: The Importance of Technology and the Thorny Issue of Distribution

Technological improvements that improve extraction processes and efficiency have been pivotal in past energy transitions. However, I wish to focus on what is perhaps the most thorny technical issue: distribution. For oil, production on every continent reduced the distance between origin and final user and allowed distance to become a “minor economic consideration” [8]. As already discussed, gas faced more severe distribution challenges solved through steel pipes and breathtaking LNG Tankers. Looking ahead, similar distribution challenges exist for new energies.

Hydrogen will undoubtedly play an essential role in the energy transition, especially for something like fertiliser where there is no viable alternative. Two views however have opened up on the scope of its application, which largely depend on whether we can solve distribution challenges. The Hydrogen Council and their consigliere McKinsey are optimistic. They believe that by matching countries like Chile and Namibia which are blessed with high green hydrogen supply potential, with countries like Japan and South Korea which demand green hydrogen but cannot produce it cost-effectively, hydrogen can do 20% of the job required in reaching net zero [9].

However, Michael Liebreich, a well respected energy guru disagrees. In his Article, “The Unbearable Lightness of Hydrogen”, he believes that hydrogen’s low volumetric density means that shipping hydrogen affordably is a non-starter [10]. Furthermore, the same energy density problem will reduce hydrogen’s final commercial use applications, the most notable example being aviation. As a result, the Hydrogen Council is wrong by a factor of 3 according to Liebreich. If history is anything to go by, the cost of producing and distributing hydrogen should fall. Furthermore, given hydrogen’s essential role in decarbonising industry, particularly for ‘strategic industries’ like steel, the case for strong policy support such as the Inflation Reduction Act is made more compelling. Steel is essential for waging war and if hydrogen is essential to producing steel, then an abundant amount of hydrogen itself becomes essential. Moving energy intensive industries to where the energy is produced is likely going to be more expensive than solving the distribution problems of hydrogen. Therefore, there is reason to favour the Hydrogen Council's view and be optimistic on hydrogen distribution. Combined with the challenges of distributing electricity, most notoriously, the challenges facing the grid, distribution in many areas is a key challenge in this energy transition.?

Lesson 2: The Role of ‘Collaborative Brilliance’?

Another key element of past energy transitions has been the creation of large markets that drove energy demand. One of the most notable examples of this is the rapid adoption of ICE vehicles over electric cars that created a large market for oil in the form of fuel and lubricants. Underpinning, the success of the Internal Combustion Engine is what I call the “collaborative brilliance” of three very smart Germans. Mr.Benz, Daimler and Maybach were all independently working on the internal combustion engine. Yet, it took the combination of Daimler’s high revolution engine, Benz’s electrical ignition and Maybach’s float-feed carburettor to form the basis of what we use in our engines today. No single engineer created the engine alone. As we look ahead, collaboration to solve technical challenges, but also collaboration between companies at different stages of the value chain with government, customers and other stakeholders is essential to succeeding in the energy transition.?

?Lesson 3: Energy Shapes Development Outcomes

The final lesson history teaches us is that there is a positive link between energy consumption and economic development, but the correlation is not always linear. Early on in the development cycle, countries need a high amount of energy to develop. As a result there are exponential gains when countries are able to increase energy supply per capita early on. At a certain level of economic maturity, increasing the energy supply has less impact on improving the Human Development Index. Many developed countries today prospered under lower oil prices, till the 1970’s OPEC shock. For countries like Ethiopia, they would see huge benefits to shift away from biomass fuels and increase overall energy supply. This contextualisation is really important as it guides the backdrop of COP negotiations, target setting and where climate duties lay at least in the beginning. My own view is that Europe has both the financial position and moral obligation to lead in the energy transition. Lead we must, lead we shall.?

Part 3: The optimistic case as we face down this energy transition

Vaclav Smil’s fundamental conclusion is a pessimistic one. He argues that whilst not “impossible”, it is “highly unlikely” that the world will be able to transition to net zero in time [11]. Based on history, energy transitions have been slow. Aside from technical brilliance and solutions, you also need affordable commercial scaling of green alternatives all of which will take time. However, history does not have to repeat itself. Each moment in time is unique, with different tools, levers, challenges and opportunities present. Pulling all levers at breakneck speed can help us to keep global warming under 2 degrees.?

?Here are three reasons why this energy transition is different from the past and we should be optimistic:

1. Past energy transitions have not been forced - Instead of being forced, past energy transitions have mostly been motivated by a search for cheaper alternatives. There was no deadline imposed. This energy transition has a clear deadline: net zero by 2050. Strong leadership that believes in cause and effect can work to mobilise humanity. Good policy, collaboration, setting targets and then working to achieve them are more important than ever.
2. Never has an energy transition been conducted in such a connected and digital world - Apart from sustainability, another key theme for this century is digital and the power of technology. With creative destruction in technology, it is possible to create decades of change in years. Whether it be AI transforming grid management or the Internet of Things helping to improve energy efficiency, the tools at our disposal are unprecedented, powerful and breathtaking.
3. Energy transition has public awareness and support - As Jamie Dimon colourfully says if humanity is not sitting here in 200 years it will be because of nuclear proliferation, not climate change [12]. The gravitas of the issue we are facing has reached the hearts and minds of many in a way for many other issues it has not. Sustaining this and what John Doerr calls “winning the politics” of the energy transition is a key part of the puzzle [13]. If humanity decides on a goal, and works hard together to achieve it, the power of collective action should not be underestimated.?

Smil finishes his book with the following quote by Senacour:

“let us struggle even though we perish”.

I prefer a different quote :

“What we have before us are some breathtaking opportunities disguised as insoluble problems” John Gardner

[1] Smil, Page 225

[2] HistoryToday.com. (n.d.). Wood and Coal: The Change of Fuel. Retrieved from https://www.historytoday.com/archive/wood-and-coal-change-fuel

[3] Smil, Page 230

[4] Smil, Page 229

[5] The IEA and World Bank both estimate that 3 billion people do not have access to clean cooking

[6] Smil, Page 247

[7] Smil, Page 279

[8] Smil, Page 280

[9] Hydrogen Council, & McKinsey & Company (2021). Hydrogen for Net Zero.?Hydrogen Council, 13. https://doi.org/-

[10] Liebreich, M. (n.d.).?The Unbearable Lightness of Hydrogen. Bloomberg NEF. https://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-the-unbearable-lightness-of-hydrogen/

[11] Smil, Page. 383

[12] Oliver, M. (2022, August 25). US-China rift is bigger threat to world order than recession, JP Morgan chief warns.?The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/25/us-china-rift-bigger-threat-world-order-recession-jp-morgan/#:~:text=If%20we're%20not%20sitting,%E2%80%9CDavos%20in%20the%20desert%E2%80%9D.

[13] Doerr, J. (n.d.).?7.0 Win Politics and Policy. Speed and Scale. https://speedandscale.com/okrs/7-0-win-politics-and-policy/