What type of recession is heading our way and what should we be doing to prepare ourselves?

I preface this by saying that I am not economist, just an interested party and professional policy watcher. So, these are just my thoughts designed to help ask a few questions and hopefully begin a discussion.

I want to explore how a recession driven by a global national lockdown a ‘economic pause’ if you like, will be different to one driven by a Global Banking Crisis, which is what we saw in 2008.

My recollection is that it felt very different, initially at least it felt remote, happening in boardrooms and financial markets around the world. It was a recession driven by a catastrophic failure in the financial sector, our banks literally running out of money and on the brink of collapse.

But this recession is different. Its happening all around us, affecting millions of us, we can see it and feel it, it is very very tangible. This crisis feels personal and transformational and every single one of us has been impacted. It is a different kind of shock to the system,

Both times we have seen ‘unprecedented’ Government intervention, in 2008 to literally buy a stake in our banks and prop up the banking sector, and now by directly paying the wages of 7m people and putting in place measures to shield and support huge swathes of the economy.

But the major difference this time is that in addition to having a Government prepared to intervene, we also have a strong and stable banking system and financial sector. Surely this must make a difference as to how we recover.

For anyone that has done an MBA or business qualification you will have had it drummed into you that “Cash is King”, businesses fail when they run out of cash – no matter what the P&L or balance sheet says. "Cash is King". So does having a strong banking sector, and low borrowing rates mean that businesses will have access to more cash? As the economy unlocks and the Government rolls back its support will business be encouraged to borrow more to get through. Are we all going to just borrow our way out of this recession?

In the Public Sector the Government will face a big choice too, keep borrowing to protect services and reward our army of front line heroes or dish out another round of austerity and a whole load of political problems to boot. These political choices will have a huge role to play in what sort of recession we have, and yet again it will be an ideological battle within the Conservative party that will determine the strength of our economic future.

I’m sure there are economists working this one through in detail, but one thing I do know is that economists and economic modelling on its own will not provide the answers, largely these models rely on past behaviours and predictable, rational actions. However, the nation has suffered a huge trauma, at least 35,000 people have died in the UK alone. It has changed us. None of us are the people we were before this.

So, what do you think happens next? Answers on a postcard please?