What Trump’s Conclusive Win Means For Crypto
Ben Simpson
Navigating the world of crypto with confidence & expertise | Founder & CEO of Collective Shift | Helped 1000+ investors maximise their returns & create a winning portfolio strategy
Delivered each Friday, The Weekly Shift gives you actionable insights into the crypto market without the BS.
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After months of speculation, Donald Trump shocked the polls with a comfortable election victory. We cover what this means for crypto ??
Bitcoin's price soared to an all-time high above $76,000 as confidence in a Trump victory increased.
Altcoins also rallied, with DeFi tokens such as Uniswap (UNI) and Lido (LDO) performing particularly well.
A Likely Red Sweep?
Trump won in a more convincing fashion than the polls expected, with the Republicans on track to complete a 'red sweep' (i.e. gaining the majority in both houses of Congress).
Best Result Possible
It means cryptocurrency will face a substantially more favourable environment in the U.S.?
The comfortable victory lowers the risk of a contested election (e.g. 2020), which would have probably rattled the markets.
The Elephant In The Room Remains?
We always said the election outcome was irrelevant for Bitcoin. No party had a plan to resolve the U.S. debt crisis, with the government running the largest budget deficit ever outside the COVID-19 pandemic in 2024.
Election Impact
If a red sweep were to play out, it'd have five major impacts on the crypto market:
#1. Regulatory clarity
Two significant pieces of legislation should now pass Congress in 2025.
#2. A more proactive SEC
One of Trump's promises was to end Gary Gensler’s reign as Chair of the SEC.?
The SEC has been extremely hostile to the crypto industry, costing crypto firms ~$400M in added compliance costs since he became chair.
The removal of Gensler would be significant, as Gensler routinely used his fifth tie-breaking vote against cryptocurrency.
It means the SEC could take a more favoured approach, and a pro-crypto commissioner, such as Hester Peirce, could replace him as chair.?
#3. Encourage innovation and altcoin adoption
Hopefully we see more people in the U.S. openly trial and offer crypto-based products without fear of persecution. Big names like Uniswap, Kraken, Consensys and Coinbase are all in active court battles.
Altcoins are the big winner compared to a Harris win.
#4. Banks to be allowed to hold customers crypto
Under the Democrats, Biden used his veto power to stop a bipartisan act reversing a rule that prevented banks from custodying crypto-assets like other deposits.
SAB 121 essentially stops any bank from taking crypto, only allowing limited exemptions.
This all but guarantees the reversal of this rule, meaning next year, banks could be free to offer these services, breaking down a huge friction point and a milestone in crypto adoption.
#5. Supply overhang disappears
Did you know the U.S. is the second-largest holder of Bitcoin? Trump promised to hold its seized Bitcoin, which equates to almost 1% of the total 21M supply, worth over $15B.
If they preform the red sweep it could mean the chances of buying bitcoin are no longer fantasy.
There's Still Time Left In The Bull Market
The event was the best possible outcome for crypto, and it sees us possibly ready to enter price discovery mode above $80,000 and then into triple figures for the first time as we head into 2025.
A reminder there’s still yet more bull market days ahead if history is anything to go by.
What happened? Anchorage, Kraken, Robinhood and Paxos teamed up to launch the Global Dollar, a regulation-focused yield-bearing stablecoin.
Why does it matter to you? Stablecoins remain the industry's best use case. It shows the $178B industry could be set to grow further as competition for new stablecoins drives more dollars onchain.
What happened? The pilot project—part of the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Project Guardian—included Swift, UBS and Chainlink to demonstrate how tokenised funds can bridge between traditional and crypto rails.?
Why does it matter to you? Traditional fund processes are often hampered by inefficiencies, leading to increased costs and reduced liquidity. The pilot is part of Swift's entry into digital assets, which will continue into 2025 with live digital asset transaction trials.
What happened? UBS has launched its first tokenised money market fund, uMINT, on Ethereum, joining financial giants like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton in exploring RWA tokenisation.
Why does it matter to you? It shows growing interest in blockchain-based financial products from traditional companies. Tokenised assets remain one of Ethereum’s underrated strengths, hitting over $3B, with 85% of RWA's (excluding stablecoins) living on Ethereum.
?? On Our Watch ??
The State of Michigan Pension Fund became one of the first public funds to allocate to ETH via spot ETFs. While the number ($18M) isn’t spectacular, it is when compared to the fund's allocation to BTC ($7M).?
ETH has underperformed in recent times and is one of the biggest watches for 2025. Is this the start of a trend reversal?
We’re excited to announce an Australian-first—the Crypto Investor Growth Summit 2024 —an exclusive, FREE, full-day virtual event to equip serious crypto investors with the strategies and insights they need to dominate in 2025.
???Who:?30+ carefully selected speakers
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