What Trump can't explain about China and the trade deficit in 140 characters

Here are 10 things worth understanding about the U.S. trade deficit, as the U.S. Commerce Department prepares to release the 2016 annual statistics tomorrow:

1. For the 10th straight year, the United States will not, in 2016, have set a record with the size of its trade deficit. That is all the more notable since, for 13 of the 14 years prior to that, it did.
2. For the eighth straight year, the United States' "balance of trade" -- the percentage of its trade that is an export -- will have topped 40. From 2000 to 2008, it had fallen below 40 cents on the dollar. Over the last two decades, the highest percentage is 44. The lowest ever was 35 cents on the dollar in 2005. Balance of trade is similar to the surplus/deficit measure, but the first measures the relationship of the two nations' trade while the second measures the size difference between exports and imports.
3. The United States will report a trade surplus with about 130 of the world's nations tomorrow. It will report a deficit with fewer, about 110.

4. The United States' balance of trade with Mexico will be about 44 cents on the dollar. That is more balanced than overall U.S. trade with the world.

5. The U.S. deficit with Mexico will be smaller than this nation's deficit with China, to be sure, but also with Germany and Japan.

6. In addition, Mexico's trade will be more balanced than with all three: Japan and Germany will end up about 20 cents on the dollar, China a paltry 20 cents on the dollar, or less. Ireland's balance of trade with the United States is similar to China's, at about 19 cents on the dollar.

7. It is likely that the United States will register a trade surplus with five of its top 20 trade partners: one in South America (Brazil); two in Europe (the Netherlands, and Belgium); and two in Asia, (Singapore and Hong Kong).

8. The U.S. trade deficit with Canada will have fallen from a a record to $78.34 billion in 2008 to something just north of $10 billion in 2016, when the data is released. Improved trade picture? Hardly. A stunning and largely uninterrupted drop in the value of oil from Canada, the No. 1 supplier to the United States, is almost 100 percent responsible. Because of that, for the second straight year and perhaps the only two years in decades, Canada will not be the top U.S. trade partner: China will.

9. China-U.S. trade will not have set a record in 2016, when figures are released tomorrow. It will be only the second year in more than two decades that U.S.-China trade has decreased. The import value of cell phone, computer, monitors and TVs all will have fallen from 2015 levels.

10. The U.S. trade deficit with China will also have fallen in 2016, since imports will have fallen faster than exports. It will only be the second year in more than two decades that the U.S. deficit has not grown.

And now for the part of the story about which you will hear the most, whether in a 140-word tweet or here on LinkedIn, on Facebook, from one of your digital subscription, in your morning newspaper or on the television news.

The U.S. trade deficit is large, quite large.

It will top $700 billion for the third straight year and the fourth in the last five.

It first topped $100 billion in 1993, $200 billion in 1998, $300 billion in 1999, $400 billion in 2000, $500 billion in 2003, $600 billion in 2004, $700 billion in 2005 and $800 billion in 2006.

But remember, the balance of trade.

While is has become "less balanced," U.S. trade with the world remains in the range of 40 cents on the dollar, with the highest balance over the last two decades at 44 cents on the dollar. That's not an enormous shift.

The deficit has grown because both imports and exports have grown in that time period. U.S. trade did not top $1 trillion until 1993; it will have been above $3 trillion nine of the last 10 years, when the data is released tomorrow.

And then there's China.

For the second year in a row, China will be the United States' most important trade partner, though the record year of trade between the two $598.07 billion in 2015, still falls well below the record year of U.S.-Canada trade, set in 2014 at $660.22 billion.

But the growth in trade between the United States and China has been extraordinary, to be sure, and it has not been balanced. But it too has become more balanced, albeit slightly. From 1996 to 2009, U.S. exports did not top 20 percent of total trade.

Since 2009, U.S. exports topped 20 cents on the dollar every year but 2015, when it was 19 cents. The 2016 total will be right at 20 cents on the dollar again.

That said, the deficit will prove to be enormous, even if it is not a record. The United States' second largest deficit will be with Germany, as mentioned above, and China's will be about five times as large.

People who favor increasing cross-border trade, whether for business, humanitarian or other reasons, and a continuation of additional and improved multilateral trade agreements that lower tariffs, open markets, cajole recalcitrant countries on labor rights, and increase intellectual property protections, will offer some explanations.

China is largely responsible for final assembly from parts gathered from through Asia and, in some cases, around the world. they will say. China has become an enormous consumer of soybeans and other U.S. farm crops. It has become a large market for Boeing and aviation in general, for motor vehicles.

And they will be right. But it's a tough story to tell in 140 characters.