What is TLT Signaling?
TLT is the iShares 20-year Treasury ETF, one of today's largest and most influential bond ETFs.
I've been arguing that the bond market rise in yields as the Fed cutting rates has been a rejection of the easing cycle. The bond market is saying the Fed has the wrong policy.
Monetary easing is not necessary given the strength of the US economy (See Atlanta Fed GDPnow) and the coming "Trump Stimulus." Fed easing is raising inflation expectations and driving yields higher.
Here is a chart of TLT's price (black) and cumulative flows (red).
From the day the Fed started hiking (March 16, 2022) to the November 7, 2024, FOMC meeting (labeled), cumulative inflows were steady, totaling over $55 billion.
A reasonable interpretation is that bond investors agreed with the Fed's policy from March 2022 to November 2024, even if it was hiking, as it was fighting inflation.
However, since the Fed cut again in November, bond investors have reversed and fled the bond market. Almost $10 billion has left TLT.
The bottom panel is a rolling 30-day flow into TLT. The last 30 days have seen a cumulative outflow of $8.69B, easily the largest 30-day outflow in TLT's history.
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Again, this outflow started with the November 7 Fed cut, which I interpret as the market screaming "no" at the Fed about its move.
The chart below shows TLT's volume since 2023. The blue bars label the six highest-volume days in TLT's history. No volume day was over 80 million before 2023.
Thursday, December 19, was the record volume day at 99 million. This was the day after the Fed cut. The previous record was November 6, the day before the Fed cut on November 7.
The market is focused on the Fed meeting, not payroll or CPI days. Investors believe the Fed is making a mistake by cutting rates when it is not needed.
Associate Director, Risk for AG OTC Structured Products at RJO
1 个月Another week or two will tell, but right now it looks like a double bottom in TLT, so maybe this is all she wrote ?
Board member UniGlobal Funds / Board member TCW Italy
1 个月Long US bonds look ok - real yields in excess of 2.5 pct are good value. Could be the best asset for the rest of 2025 - let’s see in 11 months
Fed Powell has failed to understand COVID Economics
Marketer/Social Media Influencer at edX
2 个月James Bianco I'm a devoted reader of your online post on LinkedIn however I must disagree with this assessment of the current state of US Bond Markets, particularly with relation to the pricing and cumulative assets under management in $TLT #ETF, the most plausible expectations of the bond market are that an increase in the value of the dollar, and trade protectionist policies, which have precipitated a US-Sino row over trade and technology transfers, has, after the end of the COVID-19 Pandemic, begun to be signalled by investors, as well as the US economy, that the state of the bond markets is actually markedly strong, particularly when taking into account the confluence of events, pertaining to not only the United States, and China, but also Russia, Europe, and the overall health of the Global Economy, with the unpredictability in spreads behind us (think: Credit Inversion Charts), and the Federal Reserve's asset buying tranche, and monetary policy snafu, clearly behind us, the health of the United States Economy, relative to the state of other economies, and currencies, and here I think of not only China, but Europe, Russia, and Japan as well, this has created the perfect windfall effect for the United States Economy
Capital Introduction for Alternative Investments | Real Estate | Energy | Credit | Infrastructure | Venture
2 个月#vigilante