What are some of the major themes we can expect from 2025 and what role will we play at Toronto Global?
1.???? Productivity remains a major issue throughout Canada.
StatsCan released its productivity data for the third quarter of 2024, revealing the ninth quarterly decline in labour productivity in the past 10 quarters and the third consecutive drop. This means as our productivity continues to decline, the standard of living for the average Canadian will continue to decline along with it. There’s a real opportunity for Canada to turn this around—and at Toronto Global, we’re at the forefront of that effort.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a critical catalyst for economic growth, bringing new technologies, services, and R&D – not to mention tax revenue – that spark innovation across industries. These companies don’t just improve productivity, they create lasting value for our region and the entire country.
2.???? The only certainty is uncertainty.
The largest cloud looming over the Canadian economy in 2025 is the unclear impact of the new Trump administration. Uncertainty tends to work against growth: businesses could decide to ramp up inventories ahead of tariffs, or they could decide to postpone investments. Business leaders will have a hard time accurately forecasting demand and making investment decisions so long as the current uncertainty persists.
We can’t anticipate whether Trump is bluffing in these threats, but there may be a silver lining for Toronto Global. The majority of the investments we attract is focused on the innovation economy, and so far, these tariffs don’t appear to affect that sector. Also, it’s important to note that we’re competitive, we’re resilient, and as businesses south of the border face instability, Toronto may emerge as a top choice for international companies seeking stability and access to talent.
In the midst of the changes south of the border, our economy will also be affected by a change in federal leadership, and subsequently, an election. Regardless, it is pertinent that our government remains laser-focused on responding to these trade threats, keeping our economy and business at the forefront of its political agenda. With stakes this high, we can’t afford to waver or demonstrate weakness. As a result, we’re fully aligned with our federal and provincial partners in a united “Team Canada” approach to address this head-on.
3.???? Changes to our immigration system will impact growth and investment.
A growing population was the main driver of the Canadian economy in recent years. Recently, the government has announced a drop in the number of new permanent residents and temporary residents over the next two years. This will result in a 0.2% population decrease in 2025 and again in 2026. The working-age population, aged 15-64, could fall by more than 450,000 between the end of 2024 and the end of 2026.
Despite targets being lowered, Canada’s views on immigration are aligned with globalization and economic sustainability. The Toronto Region welcomes more new immigrants than nearly every other North American destination, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Boston. Nearly 100,000 people settle in the Toronto Region every year. With supportive policies to welcome students and skilled workers from around the world, companies in Canada are able to access talent that is multicultural, multilingual, and globally connected.
The real test will come when we witness Trump’s decision on immigration. Will he choose to limit the number of H1B visa holders, ultimately benefitting Canada, similar to his first term in office? Or will he loosen immigration and cause a mass exodus of our skilled talent?
4.???? AI will continue to disrupt and transform the business community.
The momentum in the AI sector positions 2025 as a pivotal year for generative AI adoption in Canada. Google Canada’s recent Economic Impact Report?highlighted AI’s potential to boost Canada’s economy by $230 billion and save the average worker 175 hours per year.
Our Artificial Intelligence industry is supported by the most AI-specialty talent in the country, densest cluster of AI startups in the world, and an ecosystem comprised of the biggest names in technology today. This sector will continue to be a critical component of Toronto’s value proposition and international brand.
Last month, the federal government announced a $2-billion commitment to build domestic AI capacity. Canada’s AI sector is a key job creator and driver of productivity, innovation and economic growth. Developing cutting-edge AI solutions across all sectors of our economy helps Canada remain a destination of choice for investment and top talent.?
As proof of our position as a leading global centre of artificial intelligence, Toronto Global helped to land Unilever’s global AI lab in Toronto, beating out 15 other major international jurisdictions.
While Canada faces a number of challenges ahead, there are significant opportunities for growth and innovation, and with continued collaboration and strategic focus, we at Toronto Global will help to strengthen our economy and position the Toronto Region as a global leader in attracting investment and talent.?
Retired and open to options
1 个月Very informative
Good post Stephen, I would like to learn more about your focus on AI. I also believe the new administration down south is a good wake up call for Canadian businesses. We have had a solid long standing partnership but have obviously taken it for granted. As the US becomes more isolated and insular, certainly we should try to defend our position there but also there is an opportunity for us along with other impacted countries to expand our alliances beyond immediate neighbours and focus more based on aligned values and interests. Trade alignment and agreements beyond NA will take time to establish but will provide long term value and reduced dependence. Like a company, it's too risky to have the majority of your revenue dependent on one big client. The RFP result came back and not in our favour.