What Should Joe Biden's Debate Strategy Be?

As a media consultant who has coached Prime Ministers, Premiers, and candidates for Congress and the U.S. Senate, for several decades, I will be watching the June 27th CNN Debate with more than usual interest. Although there are many who say that debates don't ‘move the dial’ for voters, I believe this debate poses a significant opportunity for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 US Presidential election campaign.

Trump and Biden haven't gone head-to-head since the October 2020 debate, and much has changed since then. Joe Biden has moved from the position of attacker to that of defender. Donald Trump has always been an 'attacker', so that won't change much. However, his convictions in civil and criminal court, combined with the Jan. 6th storming of Capitol Hill, would inevitably put him on the defensive too.

For President Biden, he has two big deficits that he needs to close the gap with the voter. A significant number of voters think that his age has become a serious liability for him. The implication is that he doesn't have the mental acuity or the energy for four more years in the White House. This debate is an opportunity for President Biden to prove those voters wrong. Unfortunately for Joe Biden, a significant percentage of voters are also unable to recall the legislative accomplishments and tangible actions he has taken, especially on the economy, inflation, and jobs. This is his opportunity to remind them of his positive record and the results.

A critical element of the debate will be: what to do with the two-minute responses to their questions posed by the moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash? I suggest dividing the two minutes into two parts, turning the candidate's response into a double-edged sword. The leading edge is 90 seconds focused on Biden's actions taken to address the issue posed by the question. The other edge of the sword is the remaining 30 seconds of his two-minute responses when he needs to hit his opponent’s credibility on the issue. Biden must ground his attack lines in facts, not just in rhetoric.

Biden should begin his initial responses with an empathetic, caring message for those who have been impacted by events and issues, connecting him to the concerns of his target voter. Then he needs to bring out his core, compelling message on that issue. Define the issue that is at the heart of the question. If Mr. Biden bogs down trying to answer a specific question, he might look confused, indecisive, or blurt out a line that could live in infamy.

President Ford's famous gaffe in the second 1976 Presidential debate with Jimmy Carter, comes to mind, in which Ford pronounced, "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford administration" led to condemnation by commentators and the public and mockery on #SNL.

Candidates know a sound bite, whether scripted or spontaneous, can make or break you, as these 5-7 second lines will lead the newscasts and echo endlessly on social media.

So, sound bites should be well-rehearsed - without sounding rehearsed! They must be said no more than twice – remembering Marco Rubio’s embarrassing 2016 Republican primary debate talking point, “Let's dispel with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing, he knows exactly what he's doing!”

Don't ignore questions but once you answer them, you have earned a license to bridge over to your message. The independent and swing voters in this election want straight-forward answers to questions. They are exhausted with 'politics as usual' so don't play that game.

Each candidate will be given one minute to give a rebuttal of his opponent's two-minute response. And then the other candidate has a one minute rebuttal. Biden's one-minute rebuttals to Trump's lead responses will be critical to the outcome of the debate. He needs to look directly into his close-up camera and in a strong, clear voice, de-construct what Trump has just said. Speak to its impact on that one voter and family in their living room. He has to keep his tone, "more in sorrow than in anger". Being energized doesn't mean yelling or raising one's voice in anger. Keep the attacks fact-based, not inflammatory.

Regarding the verbal and non-verbal elements of debate preparation, my simple advice to Mr. Biden is to 'feel his words' not just 'say his words'. That means he should speak naturally, underscoring the feelings behind the words. Keep his sentences short. Don't divert from the path with explanations or lengthy stories; leave anecdotes about "Little Joey" and "Corn Pop" at home.

According to numerous studies, most of the believability of a message is non-verbal: body language, facial expression, eye contact, gestures. One key piece of advice to Mr Biden is instead of taking small, slow steps to the podium, he should stride confidently to it. This would re-shape the visual image of “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory." Presenting himself as that could cause permanent damage to his campaign that very night. It would also cut down on moments that can generate fodder for ‘cheap fakes’ created by rabidly partisan content mills and news pundits.

Each candidate won't have an opening statement so the opportunity to make a two-minute closing statement takes on greater importance. This is the 'what's at stake in this election' time of the debate.

It's here that the candidates frame the ballot question for voters. In his remarks concluding the last Carter-Reagan debate of 1980, Reagan asked possibly the most game-changing ballot question ever: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” When voters went to the polls the following month, most of them answered “no” to Jimmy Carter. This year, both candidates are using this exact framing question against each other. This could be the last question voters ask themselves before they mark their ballot, and that will be a crucial question for each voter to decide.

In the end, President Biden needs to come across as sharp, engaged, energized and connected to the realities and concerns of his target voters, particularly in the swing states he needs to win in November. His definition of a winning performance is the need to exceed expectations.

Will either candidate move the dial? A strong performance leads to an energized base, greater fundraising success, and, most importantly, growing support from independents and the coveted undecided voters. That's worth spending days prepping for a debate that could change the direction of #Campaign2024, and in so doing, possibly the future of the world.

Barry J. McLoughlin (M.P.A. Harvard Kennedy School) is a leadership communications consultant, who is the founder and President of TLC Transformational Leadership Consultants Inc. (https://tlctransformleaders.com) with offices in Ottawa, Ontario and Washington D.C. who coaches political leaders in Canada and the United States on debate strategy, strategic communications and leadership skills. He also teaches at the Telfer School of Management at the University of Ottawa and at Cape Breton University's Shannon School of Business.

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As a media consultant who has coached Prime Ministers, Premiers, Senate, Gubernatorial and Mayoralty Candidates, for several decades, I am often asked 'what's the best strategy'? The strategy for each leader must be individually tailored. Although there are many who say that debates don't "move the dial" for voters, I believe this debate poses significant opportunity in this election campaign.

Trump and Biden haven't gone head-to-head since the October 2020 Debate and much has changed since then. Joe Biden has moved from the position of 'attacker' to that of 'defender'. Donald Trump has always been an 'attacker' so that won't change much. It is of course the first time a convicted felon has participated in a debate for the Presidency, so that is different, one might say.

As such, each candidate has to figure out how he wants to come across to the voter? In other words, what is their goal? What perception do they want their voters to have of them? For President Biden, he has two big deficits that he needs to close the gap with the voter:

The majority of voters think that 'age' is an issue with him. They imply from it that he doesn't have the mental acuity or the energy for four more years in the White House. This debate is an opportunity to prove those voters wrong.

Unfortunately for Joe Biden, the majority of voters aren't able to recall the very significant legislative accomplishments and tangible actions he has taken, especially on the economy, inflation and jobs. This is an opportunity to remind them of his record.

A critical element of the debate will be what to do with the two-minute response to the questions posed to each candidate? Think of your response as a double-edged sword. One edge is 90 seconds focused on your actions taken to address the issue posed by the question. Define the issue that is at the heart of the question. [If the candidate bogs down in trying to answer a very specific question, he can look confused, uncertain or get himself in trouble. President Ford's famous gaffe in the second Presidential Debate with Jimmy Carter in the 1976 campaign in which he blurted out, "There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford administration.”

The other edge of the sword is the 30 seconds attacking Trump's credibility on the issue in question. He should ground his attack lines in facts. Be aware of the need for 'sound bites' as these 5-7 second lines will end up in the newscasts, and endlessly played on social media. So those have to be well-rehearsed - without sounding rehearsed.

Don't ignore questions or use a 'bridge to nowhere'. The independent and swing voters in this election want straight-forward answers to questions. They are exhausted with 'politics as usual' so don't play that game. Biden should begin each response with an empathetic, caring or concern message, connecting him to the concerns of his target voter, then bring out his core message on that issue. .

Biden's one-minute rebuttals to Mr. Trump's lead questions will be critical to the outcome of the debate. He needs to look directly into his close-up camera and in a strong, clear voice, de-construct what Trump has just said. Speak to its impact on that one voter and their family. He has to keep his tone, "more in sadness than in anger". Being energized doesn't mean yelling or raising one's voice in anger. Keep the attacks fact-based, not rhetoric.

With regard to the verbal and non-verbal elements, Biden should study the video of John F. Kennedy in his first, classic debate with Richard Nixon. Kennedy understood that television is a cool medium. He spoke through - not at - the camera - and did so earnestly, fuelled with a sense of humanity and compassion.

My simple advice to Biden is to 'feel his words' not just 'say his words'. That means he should speak naturally, underscoring the feelings behind the words. Keep his sentences short. Don't bog down in explanations or lengthy stories.

According to numerous studies, the majority of the believability of a message is based on non-verbals: body language, facial expression, eye contact, gestures; a significant amount of believability is based on the tone of voice and only a small fraction is based on what the person says.

So Jack Kennedy, the junior Senator from Massachusetts came across as a thoughtful, well-informed leader who could be trusted with the most powerful office in the world. Nixon, already a two-term Vice President, looked sweaty, nervous, with shifty eyes and exaggerated mannerisms and ways of expressing himself. [In fairness, he was suffering from an attack of phlebitis in his legs, and had just recovered from a fever. His refusal to wear make-up became legendary as it showed his shiny forehead and sweat on his upper lip.]

So, in the end President Biden needs to come across as engaged, energized, connected to the realities and concerns of his target voters, ideally in the swing states he needs to win in November. His definition of a win is the need to exceed expectations.

Will either candidate move the dial? A strong performance leads to an energized base, greater fundraising success, and, most importantly, growing support from independents and those who were wavering in their support for the candidate. That's worth spending days prepping for the debate that could change the direction of #Campaign2024, and in so doing, possibly the future of the world.

Barry J. McLoughlin (M.P.A. Harvard Kennedy School) is a leadership communications consultant, who is the founder and President of TLC Transformational Leadership Consultants Inc. (https://tlctransformleaders.com) with offices in Ottawa, Ontario and Washington D.C. who has coached over one hundred political leaders in Canada and the United States on debate strategy.