What should companies in Latin America do in the face of the imminent threat of regional and/or global conflicts?

We live in the most disruptive, hypercompetitive, and transformation-filled era, amid the greatest geopolitical revolution of humanity, with the threat of a devastating third world war.

"As you desire peace, prepare for war." Vegetius Renatus, a Roman military scholar who lived between the 4th and 5th centuries AD.

As a CEO, how are you preparing your company for a potential global crisis (larger than any in history)?

In the event of a war breaking out between NATO and Russia or China and the United States, Latin American countries would be severely affected, even if they are not directly involved in the conflict. Some of the main impacts would be:

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Economic and Financial Instability:

- A war between global powers would unleash a global economic crisis, with stock market crashes, increased inflation, and recession.

- Latin American countries would experience a significant contraction in their exports, especially of raw materials and food, to the warring countries.

- There would be capital flight and an external debt crisis for countries in the region.

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Rising Inflation:

- Food and medicine shortages due to supply chain disruptions, as well as increased prices of raw materials, could generate inflation and economic pressures in the region.

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Impact on Exports:

- Latin American countries that depend on the export of raw materials and food could be negatively affected by the war, as the prices of these goods could decrease due to reduced global demand.

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Threat of Wars due to Preexisting Regional Geopolitical Tensions:

- Latin America would be pressured by both sides to take sides in the conflict.

- Countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Peru, crucial for China and the US, would be targets of intense dispute.

- There would be an increase in the military presence of the powers in the region, with the risk of unimaginable war incidents for the business sector.

Security Threats:

- Possible cyber or biological attacks against critical infrastructure and strategic sectors.

- Risk of the conflict spreading to Latin America, turning it into a "battlefield."

- Increase in drug trafficking and organized crime taking advantage of geopolitical instability, war, and chaos.

Humanitarian Impacts:

- Food, water, and medicine shortages due to supply chain interruptions or collateral or deliberate infrastructure destruction.

- Increase in poverty and inequality due to the economic crisis and subsequent social upheavals.

- Possible arrival of refugees from the countries at war. If these wars involve groups or countries as seen in Israel, "rest assured they already have everything planned."

External Debt Crisis:

- Global economic instability could lead to capital flight and an external debt crisis for Latin American countries, potentially leading to a decrease in their ability to finance their projects and programs.

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What can companies do?

Companies must act swiftly to prepare for the imminent threat of war between NATO and Russia. The conflict in Ukraine has dangerously escalated, and tensions between nuclear powers have reached critical levels. An open war between NATO and Russia could trigger an unprecedented humanitarian and economic catastrophe. Companies must take urgent measures to protect their employees, secure their operations, and mitigate risks.

1. Please! Emphasize the urgency of the global crisis facing the planet. Not only the visible ones, but also the invisible ones like potential regional conflicts or the expansion of these wars to our lands, must be top priority on companies' agendas.

2. Stay informed minute by minute, but by specialists, not by YouTube videos or WhatsApp groups. The war, as it is being framed, will start without warning, and NATO's statements already threaten active participation, not only by supplying war materials to Ukraine, and it is almost certain that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons from day one.

3. Protect employees: Hopefully, the European war will not spread to Peru, but one that could involve two nuclear powers on our territory would be the expansion of a conflict between two nuclear powers: China and the United States over the Taiwan islands (the so-called chip war). In a war, the first thing targeted is the supply chain.

4. Develop evacuation and shelter plans for employees and families in high-risk areas: Self-explanatory.

5. Assess if our facilities are secure: A world war would produce panic, looting, chaos, and violence in the streets, giving criminals the distraction and chaos they seek to act.

6. Ensure emergency supplies such as food, water, medicines, and protective equipment.

7. Improve perimeter security with high-level specialized companies with experience in war zones: If this erupts, regional conflicts could very quickly erupt as well. Companies, by not preparing, become dead weight for the armed forces instead of also standing up for Peru. If a simple policeman or a Peruvian soldier is willing to give his life for a meager salary, it means he does it out of true love for Peru. Business friends, I ask you a sincere question... Do you love Peru or just use it?

8. Establish redundant communication systems to stay in touch with all living forces seeking to defend Peru and maintain order, both public and private.

9. Ensure operations and business continuity. Develop continuity plans to maintain operations in case of interruptions.

10. Identify and mitigate vulnerable points in the supply chain.

11. Diversify suppliers and markets to reduce dependence on conflict regions.

12. Strengthen cybersecurity against possible attacks on systems and networks. Cyber warfare has been ongoing for decades now; don't forget to read about the worst thing that could happen to any country in this regard: The Fire Sale Attack.

13. Prepare for and mitigate financial risks: Assess exposure to markets, currencies, and assets at risk due to conflict. Explore financing and liquidity alternatives in case of crisis.

14. Consider insurance coverage against war risks and civil unrest.

15. Companies must have an active role working in tandem with the armed forces.

Companies must act with determination and speed to protect their employees, secure their operations, and contribute to the peace, tranquility, security, and well-being of the country. Leaving the problem solely to the armed forces is not only suicidal, it is cowardly.

Time is running out, and the threat of global war or several regional wars is devastating and real. We must do everything possible to prevent a catastrophe and work for a future of stability and shared prosperity.

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