"What If" Russia loses? Not likely

EDITORIAL ANALYSIS: The "what if Russia is defeated" question arises without considering the unintended consequences it may bring. Perhaps even disaster to Europe and the West as well. If insecurity breeds war, creating more insecurity will not spread peace. Let's explore the "what if's".

Diplomatic negotiations were of vital importance to prevent military conflict before it happened. This dispute was not about territorial gains or military conquests but on national security for both sides. It was pivoted on keeping an expansionist NATO from using Ukraine as a military base off Russian borders as previously agreed upon by all parties.

Add to that, manipulating Ukraine's rookie President into being a Western proxy. Kiev kept turning a blind eye to ethnic violence directed against the Russian minorities in the Dumbass [Donbas] perpetrated by vicious para-military elements. The continued brutalization of them despite Moscow's protestations is what helped finally push the red-button. Be it either by intention or not, but somebody did not take President Putin seriously regarding these issues is what produced this outcome.

"Defeat" as properly defined must include a depleted Russian military, a demoralized Russian soldier, an economically bankrupted government, industry, and also calculate a military leadership, who although faced with this dire prospect, failed to advise their President to deploy their nuclear arsenal in an attempt to avoid defeat or bring down their opponents to a reset position with them.

The unspoken and unpublished analysis is there will be no military defeat of Russian forces by Ukraine's military alone. Using Ukraine as the Wests' proxy was a bad idea. Destroying Russia cannot be achieved without a full scale world war drawing in the neighboring region, NATO, and the US. This prospect strategically pushed Russia into the arms of China adding to the known - not known, geo-political, geo-economic, world order calculus.

Two world wars involved Germany, Europe, Russia and the U.S. Germany depends on Russian energy supplies. The surrounding countries have decent trade with Russia that cuts deep into their economic self interests. Belarus, Romania, Poland, Bulgaria and Turkey are not promised to come out of it without shared dire consequences. If each turned to their own interest when considering getting destroyed for a US foreign policy not of their making, they may not be so keen about dancing on its strings in the near future.

What propagandist are touting as Russian set-backs in certain cities are ignoring what is most likely restraint for political reasons and practical relations between their peoples afterwards. Russian military are more likely pulling its punches under orders. Russian combat doctrine is full and overwhelming force. Total warfare. As was anticipated, but not yet so only 8 months in. However, it can escalate suddenly as field tactics and politics may demand in retaliation to hits inside Russia.

The recent Artillery duels and Armor fights are like body-blows in a boxing match, not a knock down or even so much as a standing 8 count. Ukraine's manpower losses are measured by multiple battalions. They are not readily replaceable with equal in reserves. At this rate they will have more weapons than men to fire them in the next 8 months or as the attrition rate allows.

Using the boxing analogy to compare sending Ukraine $80 billion dollars and resupplying weapons to an untested and ill trained small leaderless army, expecting to defeat a professional Russian military is like giving you new boxing gloves, then betting you will beat Mike Tyson. At $80 billion and counting, the genius political engineers of this fiasco in the making may as well declare Ukraine the 51st U.S. State.

The "what if" scenario to be considered is if full scale warfare is waged by Russia it may not be against the puppet regime but the puppet masters instead. Their strategic warfare planners may conclude if their national, military, economic and political survival are at risk of loss, hitting the puppeteer hard is necessary to win.

The contracting suppliers profiting from the delivery of weapons are naturally going to be cheerleaders for a protracted conflict without much consideration given to the deeper "what if's". So their projected assurances and winnable scenarios are not really objective. Border nations will be wiser not to go the way of Ukraine, if they are far-sighted or students of recent history. NAZI's war machine killed 20 million Russians and they did not prevail.

Where are all the highly polished negotiators ready to hammer out what would have been a pretty easy real estate deal of you stay on your side and we will stay on our side of the fence?

If cooler heads prevail now, Kiev will toss out NATO, pocket the money to pay for the reconstruction, and use some of that money to pay off the Russians to go home, and everybody promise to use business diplomacy as a tool to quell disputes in the future. I am not an apologist for any of the parties to include the US and Russia, or afraid of a fight if it comes, but needless war speaks for itself. This is just bewildering if it continues in light of it is a pretty easy fix.

A win win is achievable if everyone gets out of this alive without glowing in the dark and the belligerents pick up their toys and go home. History would look back at us and say disaster was averted. We needed to walk to the edge of the void, look into the abyss and decide that we don't want to go there, its too dark.

Anthony Mele, MDY, Diplomacy, Ambassador for Peace, UPF, International Security Consultant

https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/06/what-if-russias-army-fails-in-ukraine.html