What role will third parties play at the 2023 local elections?

On Thursday 4th May,?England will host local elections, in which?around two thirds of the country’s councils?will be voted on.?While local elections often have low turnouts, Thursday’s results are of considerable importance to the main parties with a General Election expected to take place next year.?While Labour has a strong poll lead over the Conservatives, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is beginning to claw back support – particularly on popularity (as reported by The Sun)?compared to Labour leader Keir Starmer. While these elections will help project whether Labour is making sufficient political inroads to win a General Election, third parties campaigning on local issues could play a significant role in the balance of power in many local authorities. This piece analyses the significance of the threat from third parties and takes a closer look at their voting blocs?on the 4th May.

The Liberal Democrats?have performed well at local elections in the last five years.?In the?2019 local elections, the?party?took 17% of the popular vote and won over 700 council seats?– mostly at the expense of the Conservatives.?Four years later, it is the Conservatives who will?again?fear losing?support?to the Lib Dems, due to the?party’s?threat of taking?liberal-leaning voters from the?Tories. Many?Conservatives, especially?‘Remain’ supporters in the 2016 EU referendum,?have become?disillusioned with?an apparent right-wing takeover of the?party. Although?much of this liberal apathy was targeted at Boris Johnson’s leadership of the Conservatives, it has continued?into?Rishi Sunak’s premiership such as opposition to the Government’s hard line on immigration.?

The?Lib Dems are predicted to?be successful in what political commentators have described as the ‘Blue Wall’; affluent, Home County seats?housing?many liberal, ‘Remain’ supporting voters. Many here fear that their?concerns are being neglected by the?Conservatives?at the expense?of the Northern ‘Red Wall’?seats, which the party sensationally won in the 2019 general election. The Lib Dems?have won three recent by-elections in ‘safe’ Tory seats and?are polling?steadily?at around 10% of the national vote,?so expect them to?perform strongly on Thursday, again at the expense of the Conservatives.

The Green Party also?performed well in the 2019 local elections, gaining?nearly 200 seats, and are predicted to build on this success. Whilst maintaining their strong environmental?ideology,?the Greens have modelled themselves into a local issue party for Thursday’s vote.?They have campaigned on?local?concerns with a widespread appeal such as?public transport,?as well as highlighting environmental issues such as the?UK’s?sewage scandal.?Furthermore, the electorate are more likely to vote for the Greens at a local election due to their centrist appeal compared to their more left-wing general election image.

The Greens are expected to gain?support?from Conservative and Labour voters who are disaffected with their party?but are too tribal to vote for the?opposing main party.?Most are to be found in the UK’s cities and rural South. Many?Tory voters?especially are predicted to vote Green as a ‘protest vote’ against the Government. The reality of this threat has been shown by the recent surprise defection of a Harlow councillor from the Conservatives to the Greens. The Greens are polling nationally at 6% and are fielding?more local candidates than ever on Thursday, so don’t be surprised if they make further gains on their 2019?performance.

Reform UK is the rebranded version of the Brexit Party.?Although?the party is polling well at 6% of the national vote,?it?is not expected to perform in Thursday’s vote?due to a lack of name recognition and a weak campaign.?The only councillors Reform UK is likely to pick up will come from Conservative defections, rather than the ballot?box.

As millions head to the polls on Thursday, many will be analysing whether the results will begin to affect the national narrative around voting intentions for a General Election. Away from the two main parties, Thursday’s results could indicate how, especially where constituency majorities are very small, third parties could hold the balance of power in holding up a victory for Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer come next year.?