What Will The Real "New Normal" Be Like?

The world is full of speculation right now. Most of it is not well informed. Much of it is biased, either because politicians don't want to admit to mistakes, or the media wants to highlight a certain agenda or view. There are even conspiracy theories circulating in the UK that COVID-19 was created to mask the rapid rollout of 5G - and 5G is super dangerous...

I once spent a day working with Commander Neil Armstrong and I asked him directly what he thought of the conspiracy theories suggesting that Apollo 11 never went to the moon. He just said that "some people are crazy" and shook his head. It feels exactly like that when looking at the news today. Armed protestors are on the streets demanding the right to get life back to normal, but let's make one thing clear:

We are never going back to the way life was. The "new normal" is going to be very different. The world has changed permanently.

I'm not a doctor, or epidemiologist, or virologist, or medically qualified in any way, but I am trying to listen to the qualified experts (not the guests on Fox News without any medical credentials) so I can formulate an idea of how our society is going to change. This is important for me, my family, and for my clients, who come to me and ask me write about technology on their behalf.

So what is the problem?

Leaders such as Boris Johnson in the UK and Donald Trump in the US have both talked about the need to "get back to normal", Trump even suggesting that May 1st should be the target. In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro has even dismissed the pandemic entirely as "a little cold" and is now being increasingly sidelined, though he did fire his Health Secretary for the crime of taking the pandemic seriously.

My barber told me they should be open next week "when everything is normal." Friends of mine have talked about their return to work in the office "just like normal." My local football club, where I have paid for two seats for the whole of 2020 (and I have hardly seen any games this year), is telling me they will be playing again "just like normal" soon.

This is delusional.

We all want to get back to normal, but let's think logically about what is really going to happen. The lockdowns and quarantines will continue until the reproduction rate of the virus is less than one - so cases reduce because each person is infecting less than one other person. This may not be strictly true because the reality is that the lockdowns will actually end when the politicians believe that the economy cannot take any more damage.

When the lockdown ends, life will not be normal again. There is no vaccine for COVID-19. All we can do it to keep on using social distancing, improved hygiene and protective masks to prevent another wave sweeping through the population. The British parliament was told yesterday that they can expect up to six waves of the virus to sweep through the nation in 2021 if we just return to normal and do not practice strict social distancing.

In my last blog I mentioned that the world record to develop a virus vaccine is 4-5 years. It's true that all the stops are being pulled out for this one, but you can't just throw money at the problem and hope it goes faster. Epidemiologists at Harvard University have suggested that even with the extra effort going into a vaccine, it is likely that it will not be with us for at least two years, which means that it is vital to maintain social distancing until at least 2022.

we can't sit in lockdown for two more years...

However, we can't sit in lockdown for two more years. Every barber, bar tender, waiter, and hotel maid will be homeless by then. The economy has to start again, but how?

Here are a few of my own ideas, feel free to comment and add your own. During the period from the end of lockdowns until there is a vaccine widely available we can expect:

• Sports: stadiums will operate at 50% capacity. One fan in a seat, one seat empty. Stronger controls about entering and leaving your seat will be in place. Temperature tests on all access points for stadium staff and fans.
• Music and large events such as festivals: strict control over who can attend shows, possibly even to the extent that you may need to show recent proof of a negative COVID-19 test to access a venue with thousands of people, and certainly basic security such as temperature tests on all doors.
• Bars: strict control on entry and exit points. No casual drinking outside or stepping out for a cigarette. Temperature tests on all staff and patrons. Paper or plastic cups to replace all glass.
• Restaurants: much lower occupancy with standards on minimum distance between diners. This will be a difficult one as it will also involve groups - 4 or 6 to a table - so there will need to be a 'per group' idea, like the restaurant can distance your group, but within your group it is up to you. Temperature tests on entry as standard.
• Office workers: I have been trying to think about the viability of offices as a workplace during social distancing. It seems difficult. If we follow the standard rule of 2m distancing then that means each desk requires 16 square metres. It's like each worker getting a small hotel room. Temperature controls and strict entry and exit points will need to be monitored by security, but it is this question of whether you need to distance once inside the office that is the difficult one because although office configurations vary, I'd estimate that each floor should only accommodate 30% of the people it previously did - working from home will now be normal for many people on an ongoing basis.
• Dating: how do you meet strangers when there is a deadly virus still sweeping the nation? Will Tinder add a COVID-19 status on profiles, including the date of your last test?
• Parliament: we will see virtual debates and votes taking place because our elected leaders cannot continuously work in rooms with hundreds of other people.
• Education: E-learning will go mainstream for High School and University. It will be far more common for college students to get a job and participate in college around their work hours. Education will be transformed - cheaper and more accessible.
• Travel: flights will be reduced and occupancy far lower - empty seats used as a buffer between passengers so prices are likely to rise. Leisure travel may switch to be focused on stay-cations... taking holidays in home countries. The bar for business travel will be much higher - junkets will be out and only essential meetings for sales will be authorised.
• Phone Monitoring: this is perhaps one of the most sinister aspects of the entire issue. When someone does catch COVID-19 it is essential to undertake contact tracing - to trace every person they interacted with in person in the past week or so. This is so all these people can be tested and warned of the danger. It's a very laborious and manual process and is usually full of holes because we can't remember every minute of every day, which is why I believe that all the major phone companies will be forced to give up location data to governments. Your government will monitor exactly where you are, where you were, and when. If needed they can then contact everyone who was near to a person with the virus. It sounds logical, but when will this surveillance end - possibly never?

we will never go back to the way things were in 2019...

This is just a short list of areas that might change. The point is that the economy may be able to start again, but it will not be normal. If we behave like this for 2-3 years then this will become our new normal - we will never go back to the way things were in 2019.

Perhaps one of the most fundamental changes in the near future will be the compete loss of privacy. You will be expected to identify yourself regularly and prove that you do not have the virus. The California adult film industry might seem an unlikely place to look for inspiration (although Pornhub is making it's premium service free for every nation on lockdown in a marketing move that is close to genius), but they pioneered the use of phone apps to monitor who has had HIV tests, where, and when. Adult actors cannot work without proving they are disease-free - soon this requirement will come to all of us if you want to visit any public space or building - even your local bar.

The point is that the economy may be able to start again, but it will not be normal...

The important thing for any business owners or leaders to think of now is how you need to change your business to get through the next few years. Social distancing is going to be an essential weapon in the battle against this virus, but it will change consumer behaviour. How will that affect your business?

Photo by 70023 venus 2009 licensed under Creative Commons