What next in the war in Ukraine, six months on?

Hello from Chicago,

Ukraine is set to pass a grim milestone this week: it is six months since Russia launched its war of aggression. The fighting will probably drag on for many months yet. Russia’s forces are dug in, even as new weapons supplied by Western allies to Ukraine strike hard at the attacker. In Britain, Ukrainian infantry are being trained by their thousands. Scenes of destroyed arms dumps this month in Russian-controlled Crimea—normally far from the frontline of fighting—show that the invader cannot relax.

One immediate concern is Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, notably at Zaporizhia . Fighting near to these, and potentially their use by soldiers for some sort of shelter, raise the spectre of a different sort of catastrophe . If the United Nations (which gets credit for the grain deal, but really should have done more) could help with negotiations, so both sides avoid such plants, that would be something to cheer.

The war will only end when Vladimir Putin decides he has inflicted enough pain on his neighbour—or if he judges that he is paying too high a price for doing so. In the coming days we will ask how much Western sanctions, six months on, have really dealt a blow to Russia’s economy. In the short term, Russia has fared relatively well—as long as exports of oil and gas have continued to flow. Over time, however, the price Russia pays will grow. Whatever the outcome of the war, the West must stop paying billions of dollars for Russian carbon.

A separate question is whether Ukraine’s forces, after valiant but mostly defensive efforts, can switch to more offensive movements. Much speculation, of late, has centred on the Russian-held southern city of Kherson . If it fell, that would be a propaganda coup for Ukraine. But we’ve urged caution , not least because urban warfare (see the horrors of Mariupol) is exceptionally hard for the attacker.

Here in America, the war is far from the minds of most as November elections loom. My colleague and I spent time last week with political campaigners in suburban corners of Virginia. On the doorstep residents brought up the cost of living (“when’s my next stimulus cheque?”) not the cost of Mr Putin’s aggression.

We will focus our attention ever more on the mid-terms as summer draws to a close. This week it is Florida’s turn to hold primary elections. After Liz Cheney’s defeat last week , it is also a natural moment to ask how much Donald Trump still dominates the Republican party. You bet he does. He has it on a leash. It looks increasingly likely that the ex-president will launch a third presidential run. Is that despite his various legal troubles ? In fact those may spur him on. Look out, in the coming days, for the launch of our election forecast model for the mid-terms, once our most nerdy colleagues (note: that’s genuinely a term of affection) declare that it can be unveiled. And if you have an appetite for a different sort of story from America, I’d recommend one, just published, on the growing shortage of teachers in America .

Elsewhere, pay attention to Italy , where campaigning kicks off this week for its general elections. There is much at stake. The last thing Europe needs is political instability if, for example, a populist government were to take over there in the autumn. Worse yet, some Italian politicians on the right are far too cosy with Mr Putin.?

And look out for Africa. Kenya has a newly elected leader, after elections there. Meanwhile there will be new presidential elections in Angola , an oil-rich southern African state, mid-week. I last visited Luanda, its spectacular coastal capital, and then toured up-country, just as a long-running civil war was ending. The talk back then was of an urgent need to end corruption, stop the lavish misrule of the elite, and to spend revenues from oil exports in ways to help the poor. Two decades on, not much has changed for the better.

Let me recommend a business story we have just published on the latest challenges of the streaming wars . Are we all spending less time on our sofas, and less time binge-watching Netflix and co, as the constraints of the pandemic ease? I suspect so.

Last of all, I can report that, in the past week, my colleague and I tried a different type of entertainment. In our diligent research into barbecue joints of various corners of four southern states, we declared a particularly fine feast in South Carolina, as our favourite. Daddy Joe’s of Gaffney, we salute you.

Adam Roberts, Digital editor

Economist reads:

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini had probably never heard of Salman Rushdie when the bespectacled, slightly balding, Indian-born British author’s fourth novel, “The Satanic Verses”, came out in 1988. Yet within five months, Iran’s supreme leader had made the writer the world’s most famous literary apostate, describing the book as “blasphemous against Islam” and issuing a fatwa on national radio calling for the execution of the author and all those involved in the book’s publication. On February 14th 1989, two hours after the edict was announced, Sir Salman emerged from a memorial service in London for Bruce Chatwin, his friend and fellow author, stepped into a car and sped off into a different life. Today, as the 75-year-old writer lies in hospital, after being attacked on stage in upstate New York by a knife-wielding assailant who was not even born when the fatwa was issued, it is worth recalling why Sir Salman—who was knighted in 2007—is one of the great novelists of our time: funny, brave and endlessly inventive.

Our latest column on workplace culture:

Humans have been honed over millions of years of evolution to respond to certain situations without thinking too hard. If your ancestors spotted movement in the undergrowth, they would run first and grunt questions later. At the same time, the capacity to analyse and to plan is part of what distinguishes people from other animals. The question of when to trust your gut and when to test your assumptions—whether to think fast or slow, in the language of Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist—matters in the office as much as in the savannah.

Most read by subscribers this week:

• Will Donald Trump run again?
• Can the Visa-Mastercard duopoly be broken?
• Republicans are falling out of love with America Inc
• Could the EV boom run out of juice before it really gets going?
• A fresh American bull market is under way. Can it last?

Enjoyed this newsletter?

Read three free articles each month on Economist.com—register for free . If you are not a subscriber, enjoy full access by subscribing here ,

If you subscribe to The Economist, we have good news: there is a new business and technology newsletter just for you. Sign up here .