What next for Labour?

Analysis piece by Mark Glover

The rumours of splits and news of a significant drop in polls for Labour over the weekend (2/2/19) precedes a period critical to the long term future of the party in its current configuration which I analyse below:

Across England, Scotland and Wales, we now have in Jeremy Corbyn, Richard Leonard and Mark Drakeford; three leaders from the Corbyn-supporting wing of the party, backed by Momentum, and although not identikit politicians, Drakeford particularly is referenced as an intellectual, they are unlikely to oppose moves to take the party leftwards in terms of its structure and policy-making processes, which will entrench Corbyn’s hold and make it more difficult for moderates to win back power. Follow this by imposing reselection on sitting candidates and seeing Leadership-supported candidates imposed in seats where existing candidates are not in place and the mountain to climb for the moderates to regain power seems ever steeper.

At different stages for different people this will pose a decision as to whether they stay in the Party. Some members have left already, particularly over the Party’s position on Europe or its very poor response to anti-Jewish rhetoric. Yet amongst MPs, with the exception of John Woodcock, there has been little sign of imminent departures. Is that about to change?

This last weekend suggest there are a small number of Labour MPs who are emotionally at the departure gates, waiting for the best time to leave. These are those MPs with the most ideological differences, and have not been afraid to show their frustration, with Corbyn’s leadership. Whilst these numbers are likely to remain in single figures, whatever happens over the next few months, they are likely to leave Labour or leave politics.

The loss of this group has been already been factored in by many within the Labour Movement and the current leadership both within the Party and their supports will seek to dismiss them as not proper ‘socialists’ who will not be missed. Their impact through will depend on how much noise they can create by their leaving and the impact their leaving has on others still facing up to the decision to leave or stay.

Whilst this will undoubtedly create column inches in the national media perhaps more significant will the aftermath of parliamentary selections or re-selections taking place and further policy changes entrenching Labour more deeply in Marxist positions. Should Labour move toward “democratic centralism, legitimising policy-making by a leadership cadre via an extra-parliamentary mass-movement, rather than via traditional parliamentary democracy, this will persuade more MPs to leave. The next Labour Party Conference, this autumn, where the alignment of political leadership, the majority on the National Executive Committee and a majority lead in the number of conference delegates could see the Hard Left of the Party could be a key.

At that point those that came into politics inspired by Blair and are still in the Party, what was once termed the 'Soft Left' and the traditional trades union (pre-Blairite) Old-Right, now all lazily labelled ‘moderates’ may feel that the chance to save the Party, as they knew it, has passed. Once that happens there is likely to be a group of perhaps over a hundred or so existing MPs who will consider their position. Whilst some will quote the Parliamentary failure of the SDP and stay and fight for one last heave - for many the time will come to make what would have been an unimaginable decision only a few years ago and leave.

Whilst one of the factors  determining whether MPs stay or leave will be the personal impact or threat of reselections, another will be whether there is a new political party - that could champion ‘Social Democrat and Democratic Socialist’ values - with the potential to be electorally popular. At the moment no such party seems to exist, but these things can be set up quickly, structures created and finances found. Important to the electoral success of any party would be its credibility with the electorate, and how much of the mainstream Labour identity it could hold onto. A Corbyn-led Labour Party will keep all the branding, but will a new party capture the mainstream left of centre reforming mood, which was so popular under an incoming Blair Government in 1997?

For those MPs who join and carry with them a significant media profile a new political party will certainly capture air time. But will the fundamentals be in place to ensure survival and then its electoral success? Vital will be trades unions and their support – the SDP was always hampered by its inability to secure any real union support. Also will be local government, where many of the moderate politicians in power will have to make a quick decision about the impact of a split on their immediate and future electoral prospects.

So 2019 will more than any year in recent history shape the future of the Labour Party. These are interesting times and a lot of the old political certainties may well be blurred, but then the parameters of judging politics will also need to change.