What the New York Times Didn’t Say About the Podcasting Industry

纽约时报 took time out to write about the state of our small but mighty Podcast industry in a recent article titled, “Podcast Companies, Once Walking on Air, Feel the Strain of Gravity”.?

This is not the last time you'll see this type of narrative in major publications in 2023. What is happening in podcasting is the same thing that is happening across the marketplace, particularly in tech and media. The market got too hot, and virtually all players bid up the cost of talent to stay competitive and continue growth. But now, in a period of correction, many companies that participated in the podcast M&A and talent licensing feeding frenzy (pretty much everyone) now realize they bit off a little more than current economic realities will allow them to chew.

We're going to see a lot of consolidation. Weaker or less well-capitalized players will pack up and go home. We're likely to see millions of podcast "ghost feeds" (coined here, FFR) as creators with visions of grandeur hoping to be the next Joe Rogan will now find other ways to spend their time on activities that provide a more immediate return on investment.

So, what does this mean for the industry? Has audio's glorious revolution come to an end? Quite the contrary. We're just now passing through the refiner's fire. Expect challenges.

All the hype that’s been propelling the industry will become a headwind as a parade of negative industry news floods our feeds, rebranding podcasting as something other than the golden child it's been these last few years. We'll hear more about canceled contracts than new celebrities jumping into the fold. People will start talking about ad fraud. The whole industry's unchecked baggage will come painfully into view, like how we don't really measure impressions, or how many platforms dynamically insert ads without frequency capping, torturing their listeners, or how many shows underdeliver projected impressions with no recourse.

Serious brands better get a serious agency.

We're going to have to have some hard conversations. I don't mind so much. The industry is trying to do the right thing and create pathways to attract large brands and still serve startups. But these things take time. We're just now in our middle school phase, and our voice keeps cracking at the wrong time. But this will help us grow up a bit faster and stop believing so much of our own press now that the shine is coming off a bit. It was never as good as the headlines suggest, and it's not as bad now.

Companies will be forced to start making rational investments, and creators will start to have rational expectations. Building a media empire is hard, and not everyone is supposed to succeed at it. Podcasting serves four main purposes, but industry participants usually don't know which one they reside in. The four primary purposes are:

1. A place for hobbyists to talk but not be heard.
2. A place for enthusiasts to find shamans.
3. A place for entertainment brands, brand marketers, and small firms to do content marketing.
4. A place for SOME creators to earn a living through talent, persistence, resources, and timing.

The third one is where there is the most confusion. Too many people got too ambitious and deluded themselves that they could be rich by talking into a microphone, imagining the podcast itself would be a profit center. Now we have a content overload that a rational market can never support if the creator's aim is to be an entree instead of an appetizer. This is why we see a former US president have his podcast contract terminated after one season, as the article remembered to mention.

I'm just glad to be on the buying side because we're starting to have a field day. With the need to fill up empty seats on all the 747s that are still under contract for the next few years, pricing is getting more rational, and brands that are in a position to grow can get back to the returns we saw in the early days (which were staggering). The product is still good, and this new competitive environment will starve the half-steppers and underqualified who only came for a quick buck.

Audio is the most intimate way to reach people and win their trust. And to properly unpack a complex topic without the shackles of short attention spans and constant interruptions, as with TV and video, which struggle to go nearly as deep on a subject. Our best days are ahead of us. AI and dynamic audio content with two-way smart devices will create another revolution that is hard to even conceive at this point in time.

But that's for a different rant.

We're in a buyer's market again, and I'm quite happy here. Adulthood will be here soon enough for us all, so let's embrace the struggle and focus on elevating the work. This is where the refiner's fire can allow us to prove our mettle.