What will matter most in the coming decade?

There are likely few greater sociopolitical controversies than those surrounding the roles of the state. Whether in antiquity, in theological analyses, or in modern times, the issue has always focused on the allocation of roles and responsibilities; In particular, the question of how much the state should regulate, what (and how many) functions it should perform, and what (and whom) it should take care of - in a self-interested manner. In the simplest terms, one could argue that the most extreme opinions fall into two categories: on one hand is the “strong state”, with numerous regulatory and sociopolitical tasks, and on the other is the “night watchman state”. According to Adam Smith, who limited scope to the essentials, the latter should only be engaged in defense and internal security, jus-tice, protection of property and personal rights, and infrastructure and education.

We are concerned about the role the (welfare) state will play in the future. For this reason, we would like to start by addressing three central fields of action. Because when it comes to location factors, more and more of our internationally active clients are moving away from Germany as an option – if not altogether, then partially. The reason being that they do not believe they will find optimal conditions here.

Field of action 1: Education

People who are well educated and optimistic about the future remain a key component. And without top universities, we lose the best minds.

Field of action 2: Infrastructure

Organization and availability in terms of mobility (especially roads and railroads), digitization (specifically internet as well as a comprehensive and state-of-the-art telecommunications network), and energy (especially at competitive prices).

Field of action 3: Appeal

Achieved through globally competitive openness, support, and management.

Responsibilities of the state should always be considered from the perspective of allocating limited financial re-sources (state budget) sensibly and thus, in the original sense, as a business investment decision. Unfortunately, we cannot afford every conceivable option, and must weigh the alternatives against one other - especially their impact on both present and future circumstances.

We must, therefore, address the question of allocation: To what extent can we afford a welfare state that invests predominantly in the present? What social spending is fair for those who pay into the social systems and necessary for those who do not? More importantly, what role do they play in preventing social division? And whe-re should we direct future investments - especially in terms of infrastructure, education, and attraction? These in-vestments are necessary for the continued financing of a resilient welfare state, for binding entrepreneurship to the location, and for attracting world market leaders - especially in emerging disciplines.

We are particularly interested in the question of whether, in the 3rd decade of the 21st century, more extensive and consistent investment in the future is truly "social" in the original sense of the word. After all, we have a socio-political responsibility to future generations. Therefore, the welfare state in this decade must be one that looks to the future and invests - much more than today - in the three fields of action: education, infrastructure and attraction.

However, we cannot take old agendas and simply repackage them to look new; We must take a holistic approach, focusing on the central issues of the second half of our century.

Namely, what role does rising defense spending play? And what role would the widely discussed “BIG” (Basic Income Guarantee) play, i.e. an unconditional basic income? But again, this would require enormous additional spending. Despite the simultaneous decline in people‘s desire to work, including the increased popularity of 4-day work weeks, a growing preference for part-time work, and a younger generation that is considered “lazy”.

The answers to these questions have a common denominator. They revolve around era-defining change, the beginning of which we are all witnessing after 1,000 (one thousand!) years. You can learn more about this subject in Part 2 of our ePeriodical on the (social) state of the future.

What moves us is a newsletter of the THOMSEN GROUP in cooperation with many great people.